Sunday, June 9, 2019

Chicago White Sox 2B Nick Madrigal - Spray Chart Analysis

Nick Madrigal was recently promoted to Double AA Birmingham and it seems he has bounced back from the wrist injury he suffered his last year in college. Nick did not hit for much power in his pro debut and I think this was due to the injury. As you can see he was not able to pull the ball to left field his first year. In 2019 he has done what the White Sox have asked and is pulling the ball to left field. We all know that Nick is an excellent contact hitter. His ISO this year is only .105 but for some reason I think he will add some power to his game as he regains strength in his wrist. 

*Spray charts were used from Baseball Savant.


Nick Madrigal's 2018 Spray Chart 
Madrigal showed little to no power in his first season and only hit to the opposite field.

  Nick Madrigal's 2019 Spray ChartMadrigal is finally pulling the ball to left field and showing a little more extra base hit power.











Saturday, May 25, 2019

Adapt or Die - MLB Prospecting Tactics

At Prospects for Cash, it is always a good thing to look at the state of prospecting and the overall health of the market. Tactics change all the time and philosophies evolve. It is clear that the market is trending up. I explain this in my previous article.

Due to the changes, here are a few thoughts on how I feel about prospecting as we move forward in 2019.

1.Group Breaks and Case Breaks - It may be a good time to consider participating in these breaks as buying a slot on the front end for a prospect could mean big money on the back end as prices rise.  

2. Timing - I am still sticking to the 20% rule. If I can make a profit I am OK moving on. Timing is everything now. Your choice will all depend on your investment. You can still make money on a player before they make the Majors.

3. Player Positions - Positions still matter but not as much anymore. We know the risks with pitchers but I used to avoid buying catchers or second baseman. Catchers do take time to develop but lately there have been good ones to invest in. If a player can play the price will show it.

4. Age - Age still matters. A 19 yr old prospect still has the room for potential while a 24 year old prospect has reached his ceiling.

5. Power and Contact - It seems with the new baseballs flying out the park the power numbers are tricky to analyze. Contact is still king. Walk rates matter. 

6. State of the Hobby - Overall the hobby is heating up and prospecting will continue to pick up steam. Keep an eye on the trends. Or just follow me for the best info on the web. Could supply increase? Is a correction in play down the line. Stay tuned.

7. Buying Retail over Hobby - Another emerging subject. Buying retail blaster boxes of Bowman is a good play. I am still surprised boxes sell for $20.You could easily resale for double the price! The tough part is that you have to really know when they hit your local stores. People know the vendors so sometimes the boxes never hit the shelves.

Los Angeles Angels OF Jordyn Adams - MLB Prospect Breakdown

One prospect on my radar and selling for a good price is Jordyn Adams. As of the writing of this article, I have seen prices as low as $20 for a base autograph. My guess is this is due to his slow start. In my opinion, I would not worry about the numbers right now. Investing in his Bowman Chrome auto will be a long term hold. Two sport athletes out of high school take time to adjust to pro ball. He is walking 10.6% of the time and his K rate is around 26.7%. The kid is talented with upside.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Stats's Don't Lie - May 2019 MLB Prospect Report

Two months of the season is almost complete and I think its a good opportunity to look at some of the numbers. Who is performing at an elite level? Who's not? Check out some of the numbers below. Please note these numbers were recorded through the games played as of May 19th and were taken from Fangraphs.

Hitters

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - 0.197 ISO - One of my favorite hitters. The question is can he hit more home runs.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 12.20% K rate. He also has 16 extra base hits but is repeating a level so this is not a big surprise.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks - 13.50% walk rate. Smith already has 4 home runs on the year. Maybe he is tapping into his power finally. I also love the on base percentage (.333) despite the batting average.

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 21 extra base hits. He is finally getting it going.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - 0.186 ISO. Nick has 14 doubles and 3 triples but I am not sure if that is sustainable but his auto sells for a bargain.

Pitchers

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers - 0.89 BB/9 and 2.39 FIP. Casey is the real deal.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals - 8.86 K/9. Not a bad start and still an affordable buy.

Grayson Rodriguez - Baltimore Orioles - 13.65 K/9. His cards are heating up but you may still find bargains at the card shows.

Hitters I'm Worried About

Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics - 39.20% K rate. Not good.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals - 0.115 ISO. I would like to see more power. The walk rate is good so I am not too worried.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angles - 29.90% K rate. The swing and miss issues have to improve.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets  - 1 Home Run. He is only 18 but I wonder if he can develop power in the future. Still early.

Sunday, April 28, 2019

2019 Bowman Baseball - Price Trend Analysis

2019 Bowman Baseball has been out for a week. Overall the prices are insane. Even prospects with a small sample size or none at all are selling for big amounts. Check out the recap below. I doubt prices will come down but another review will be done in a few weeks. Please note my review is based on base auto prices sold on Ebay via auction.

Andrew Knizner - St. Louis Cardinals C - Selling for about $10-15. Worth a buy.

Blaze Alexander - Arizona Diamondbacks 2b - Selling for around $25. Too high at the moment for me.


Brewer Hicklen - Kansas City Royals OF - Selling between $5-10. Worth a buy and is a bargain.

Cal Mitchell - Pittsburgh Pirates OF - Short printed? Prices are around $30. I will monitor.

Chad Spanberger - Toronto Blue Jays 1b - Selling for around $5-15. I would say a bargain bin purchase is in play.

Cristian Santana - Los Angeles Dodgers 1b/3b - Selling for around $25-$30. As expected.


Diego Cartaya - Los Angeles Dodgers C - Selling for around $50. Not bad for someone who has not played yet.


Dom Thompson-Williams - New York Yankees OF - Selling for $5-$10. Dom is in the Seattle farm system so his card is worth a buy if selling for single digits.


Elehuris Montero - St. Louis Cardinals 3b - Selling for around $40. I am surprised it is not selling for more.

Esteury Ruiz - San Diego Padres 2b - Selling for around $20. Not a bad price.

Gabriel Cancel - Kansas City Royals 2b - Selling for around $10. I would try to buy at around $5.


Julio Rodriguez - Seattle Mariners OF - Selling for $140. I'm out.

Miguel Amaya - Chicago Cubs C - Selling for around $40. Not a big surprise here.

Mateo Gil - St. Louis Cardinals SS - Selling for $5 to $15 but has not played much. Upside buy for me.

Marco Luciano - San Francisco Giants -Selling for $150. I'm out.
Matt Vierling - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Selling for around $15. I need the price to come down.
Nate Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays 1b - Selling for around $20 but he is playing well so the price is legit.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets SS -  Selling for over $100. I'm out

Telmito Agustin - Washington Nationals OF - Bargain bin price but is 22 and not much upside is left. Maybe buy one.


Tirso Ornelas - San Diego Padres OF - Selling for $40. Good prospect. Not surprised.

Victor Mesa Jr. - Miami Marlins OF
Victor Victor Mesa - Miami Marlins OF - Both are selling for close to $100. I'll pass.

Sunday, April 21, 2019

Are We In A Baseball Card Bull Market?

The mission of this site is to give readers the best analysis on baseball prospects and the Bowman baseball card market. Occasionally the Majors are discussed but I prefer to keep my focus on the future of the game. It is also my job to inform readers of potential trends and pitfalls. Bowman baseball autograph card prices have spiked since the release of 2018 Bowman Draft. Prospects who have not taken a swing in the minors or past rookie ball are selling for big profits. I have seen this trend emerge not just in baseball but in the entire card market. A bull market is forming (or has already started) and the potential of a bubble forming should be noted. My concern is due to the spike in demand the chance of supply increasing becomes more likely. One positive is the Bowman autograph is held in high regard due to having an on-card signatures and history. Maybe buying more color will be a good hedge if supply increases but that has yet to be determined. In the future months and possibly years, timing will be key as you are prospecting. I wanted to give readers a heads up as the market seems to be changing. In addition, I have also provided some links with good information. Thanks for reading and a special thanks to Brandon for motivating me to write about this.

 
Bull Market Definition via Investopedia

Gary Vaynerchuck Predicts the Sports Card Bull Market

Starts at the 1:30 min mark and ends around to about the 6 minute mark. I also read he will be attending the National Convention which will only increase demand as he has a ton of followers.

Recommended Reading
 
The Great Baseball Card Bubble - Slate Magazine
Why Your Sports Cards from the Early 90s Are Worthless - Cardboard Connection

Will history repeat itself? If you agree or disagree, I want to hear from you. Feel free to email or contact me on Twitter.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

2019 Bowman Baseball - Complete Analysis of Every Prospect

2019 Bowman Baseball's release is right around the corner and I have taken a look at the list. Overall there were not many pitchers I liked and there were a few position players that are very good buys. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will answer. Thanks for reading!
 
Andrew Bechtold - Minnesota Twins 3b - K rate is above 25%. Pass.

Aaron Civale - Cleveland Indians P - Pass. K/9 too low.

Andrew Knizner - St. Louis Cardinals C - Older player with a little pop. Will be worth the buy if in the $5-10 range.

Blaze Alexander - Arizona Diamondbacks 2b - Cool name and has a little pop. Worth a buy if the price is not too crazy.

Brock Burke - Tampa Bay Ray P - Nice K/9 rate but I will pass.

Brock Deatherage - Detroit Tigers OF - Pass. Too many strikeouts.

Brewer Hicklen - Kansas City Royals OF - Not a bad player. Need to see the Ks come down. A buy for me.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals P - Pass. Not enough date to evaluate.

Conner Capel - Cleveland Indians OF - Pass

Casey Golden - Colorado Rockies OF- Pass too many K's.

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers P - Pass. Too risky and the cost will be too high.


Cal Mitchell - Pittsburgh Pirates OF - Nice player. A buy for me but I need to see more power.

Chad Spanberger - Toronto Blue Jays 1b - Great power bat. Would buy if a bargain.

Cristian Santana - Los Angeles Dodgers 1b/3b - Buy. Look at the stats and see for yourself.

Derian Cruz - Atlanta Braves 2b - Pass. No pop.


Diego Cartaya - Los Angeles Dodgers C - No stats on file. Pass for now.

Dean Kremer - Baltimore Orioles P - Pass. Back end starter.

Dom Thompson-Williams - New York Yankees OF - In Seattle now but would buy if a bargain.

Edward Cabrera - Miami Marlins P - Pass

Eloy Jimenez - Chicago White Sox - Pass. Second Auto.

Elehuris Montero - St. Louis Cardinals 3b - Buy. Nice player.

Eli Morgan - Cleveland Indians P - Pass

Esteury Ruiz - San Diego Padres 2b - Buy. Nice pop.

Gabriel Cancel - Kansas City Royals 2b - Buy if a bargain.

Genesis Cabrera - St. Louis Cardinals P - Pass

Isranel Wilson - Atlanta Braves OF - Pass

Joey Bart - San Francisco Giants C - Love him but the cost will be too high for me.

Jonathan Hernandez - Texas Rangers P - Pass. Too many walks.
Julio Pablo Martinez - Texas Rangers - Pass
Julio Rodriguez - Seattle Mariners OF - Buy. Young but has big time talent.
Jose Suarez - Los Angeles Angels P - Someone to watch. Pass for now.

Keegan Thompson - Chicago Cubs P - Pass

Lyon Richardson - Cincinnati Reds P - Pass for now. Only 19.

Logan Webb - San Francisco Giants P - Pass

Miguel Amaya - Chicago Cubs C - Not bad. All depends on the cost for me.

Mateo Gil - St. Louis Cardinals SS - Pass for now. 18 and has not played much.

Marco Luciano - San Francisco Giants - No stats on file.
Matt Mercer - Arizona Diamondbacks P - Pass.

Mason Martin - Pittsburgh Pirates 1b - Pass. Too many Ks with no power.
Matt Vierling - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Decent numbers. I will keep my eye on him.
Nate Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays 1b - Not a bad 1b but I will pass.

Nick Madrigal - Chicago White Sox - Pass. Second auto.

Rylan Bannon - Baltimore Orioles 2b - Pass.

Ryan Costello - Minnesota Twins 1b - Pass.

Ronaldo Hernandez - Tampa Bay Rays C - Not bad but Rays players are a tough sell.

Reggie Lawson - San Diego Padres P - Pass

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets SS - A very close watch for me but I need to see more. I wonder what he will sell for.
Ryan McKenna - Baltimore Orioles OF - Pass
Roberto Ramos - Colorado Rockies 1b - Pass

Seuly Matias - Kansas City Royals OF - Nope. Way too many strikeouts.

Steele Walker - Chicago White Sox OF - Cool name but I'll pass.

Telmito Agustin - Washington Nationals OF - Not bad but would only buy if in the $5-10 range.

Tirso Ornelas - San Diego Padres OF - Another good, young prospect in San Diego. Buy.

Tommy Romero - Tampa Bay Rays P - Pass

Taylor Widener - Arizona Diamondbacks P - Pass

Vince Fernandez - Colorado Rockies P - Pass

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Toronto Blue Jays 3b - Pass. Second auto.

Victor Mesa Jr. - Miami Marlins OF
Victor Victor Mesa - Miami Marlins OF - Both Mesa brothers are a watch for me. I need to see a full season of results.
Wander Franco - Tampa Bay Rays OF - An obvious buy but the prices will be insane. Too rich for me.

Will Stewart - Philadelphia Phillies P - Pass.

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Cleveland Indians 2B Tyler Freeman - Breakout Prospect Canidate

It is rare for me to talk about second baseman but the minors are loaded with talent at this position and Tyler Freeman is a kid I have my eye on. Freeman is a doubles machine and I am making the bet that he will hit for a little more power in 2019. Cleveland has always been good with developing hitters (See Daniel Johnson). The number one reason I have Freeman as a candidate is he always makes good contact and rarely strikes out. I will admit he is a gamble to buy because the power may not come but a player who hit 29 doubles, 4 triples and 2 homers in 2018 is worth the risk right?

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Oakland Athletics OF Austin Beck - Breakout Prospect Canidate

As we approach the start of the minor league season, I will begin to name some prospects I feel will breakout. The first on the list is Austin Beck. Austin had a decent 2018 season but did not hit for much power. Scouts seem to have mixed feelings on his development so far. For me I think he has made positive strides since his ACL injury in high school. I have read in various reports that he has been working on adding more loft in his swing and has added strength during the off-season. In addition, he will also be in the hitter friendly CAL league. My prediction is that his in game power will start to show and he will rise up many lists. Hopefully Austin performs well enough to make it to top 100 lists around the all star break.

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Why Nick Madrigal Has Power Potential

Nick Madrigal was selected 4th overall by the Chicago White Sox in the 2018 MLB Draft out of Oregon State. Overall it seems scouts are in full agreement on his above average hitting ability but are concerned about his power potential. Although he did not strike out much during his pro debut, he did not hit for any power. The more alarming statistic is he only hit 7 doubles in 155 at bats. Back in March 2018, Nick broke his wrist sliding into home plate. He was out for 6 weeks and came back to close out the season. In my opinion, the injury is why the power was not there during his pro debut. Even though he came back from the injury I would expect extra time is needed for his wrist to get back to 100%. My prediction is Nick will show amore pop in his first full season after resting and getting his strength back in his hands. I will be watching his extra base hit production very closely. Base autographs are selling for $30-40. I am willing to buy one to hold.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

The Number One Resource for Every Baseball Prospector

Every year I make an effort to purchase the Baseball America Handbook. The team does a great job with analyzing the top 30 prospects for every MLB team. Scouting reports, tool grades and stats are included for multiple players. I would highly suggest you add it to your list of resources. It has helped me make better investments over the years.

Purchase the 2019 Baseball America Handbook via Ebay

Sunday, January 6, 2019

Taking a Chance on Philadelphia Phillies OF Mickey Moniak

When Mickey Moniak was drafted number one overall back in 2016, the industry and insiders loved the pick. Since then, Moniak has struggled and scouts have hopped off the bandwagon. Some reports I have read only see him as a fourth outfielder now. In my opinion, this is a great buying opportunity. Moniak will be only 21 once the 2019 season starts and he finished the 2018 season strong. He also has been working on getting stronger and has a good makeup. The adjustment to pro ball can be tough even if you are considered to be a top talent. As of today, his base auto is selling for around $15. I believe Mickey will breakout in 2019. 

Note - Remember to only focus on the 2016 draft auto.