Saturday, June 23, 2018

Contact In Baseball Is Still King and Strikeouts Do Matter

If you are a reader of the site and have read my previous recommendations I am sure you have noticed a trend. Contact matters when I am searching for prospects to invest in. Yes I know we are still in the moneyball era and I am well aware that strikeouts don't matter. Trust me strikeouts do matter. Especially in the minors and playoff baseball. A number of prospects have inflated prices due to huge home run totals but strikeout in 30% of their at bats. If there are cases where I think a player can cut down on the strikeouts I will be sure to let the readers know. Keep following for more updates as the season goes on.

Could Cristian Pache's Bowman Auto Reach Ronald Acuna Prices?

When 2018 Bowman Baseball was released one of my favorite prospects in the product was Cristian Pache. I thought his prices would be reasonable after release but I was 100% wrong. His autographs were immediately on the high end. I think the main reason is because he made a few top 100 lists despite not being a lock to have power. The Braves have been working with him on his swing and he has five home runs on the year. Not to mention he is already an elite defender. It seems his card prices are only going to go up. In my previous article regarding Senzel I said it is OK to take risk. After review, I noticed a big difference between Senzel's situation and Pache's. The Reds rebuild seems to be taking longer than expected while the Braves are playing well and are loaded on the farm. Cristian Pache may be a year or two away but the time to buy is now if your budget allows.

Nick Senzel Out For The Season - Prospecting Advice

Today the Cincinnati Reds announced that Nick Senzel will be out for the year with a hand injury. The news is unfortunate as he was on fire the last ten games and a promotion to the Reds was imminent. I have said this multiple times on the blog that injuries are one of the few reasons investing in high end prospects is a big risk. Every year in baseball a high end prospect gets hurt and collectors feel the pain. Don't get me wrong its OK to take risk but sometimes the cost is not worth it. In Senzel's case he was one of the safest prospects in the minors far as talent is concerned but was high priced as soon as his auto came and had previously missed time. Due to the injury his prices could drop. It would be best practice to hold on to what you have unless you can make a profit. 

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Austin Beck's and Pavin Smith's Stocks Are Not Trending Down

Sam Dykstra at MILB.com posted an article discussing the 2017 MLB Draft and the performance of certain prospects. I was surprised to see that he stated Austin Beck and Pavin Smith's stocks were trending down. Austin Beck tore his ACL while in high school and while he did struggle in short season ball, he is still 19 and is playing better. He was known to be a project when he was drafted. Pavin Smith is only batting .214 but his K rate and walk rate are exceptional and the power numbers are acceptable despite being in a hitter friendly league. I think sometimes we are not patient with the development of these players as they adjust to pro ball.

MILB Article by Sam Dykstra

Pittisburgh Pirates 3B/SS Oneil Cruz is Under the Radar

One prospect that is a bargain bin and should not be forgotten is Oneil Cruz. He was traded to the Pirates last season from the Dodgers and is still only 19. So far this season he has hit 8 HR's to go with 11 doubles and 5 triples. I would like to see his strikeout rate go down but so far I am very impressed with him this season.

Link to stats via FanGraphs