Saturday, May 25, 2019

Adapt or Die - MLB Prospecting Tactics

At Prospects for Cash, it is always a good thing to look at the state of prospecting and the overall health of the market. Tactics change all the time and philosophies evolve. It is clear that the market is trending up. I explain this in my previous article.

Due to the changes, here are a few thoughts on how I feel about prospecting as we move forward in 2019.

1.Group Breaks and Case Breaks - It may be a good time to consider participating in these breaks as buying a slot on the front end for a prospect could mean big money on the back end as prices rise.  

2. Timing - I am still sticking to the 20% rule. If I can make a profit I am OK moving on. Timing is everything now. Your choice will all depend on your investment. You can still make money on a player before they make the Majors.

3. Player Positions - Positions still matter but not as much anymore. We know the risks with pitchers but I used to avoid buying catchers or second baseman. Catchers do take time to develop but lately there have been good ones to invest in. If a player can play the price will show it.

4. Age - Age still matters. A 19 yr old prospect still has the room for potential while a 24 year old prospect has reached his ceiling.

5. Power and Contact - It seems with the new baseballs flying out the park the power numbers are tricky to analyze. Contact is still king. Walk rates matter. 

6. State of the Hobby - Overall the hobby is heating up and prospecting will continue to pick up steam. Keep an eye on the trends. Or just follow me for the best info on the web. Could supply increase? Is a correction in play down the line. Stay tuned.

7. Buying Retail over Hobby - Another emerging subject. Buying retail blaster boxes of Bowman is a good play. I am still surprised boxes sell for $20.You could easily resale for double the price! The tough part is that you have to really know when they hit your local stores. People know the vendors so sometimes the boxes never hit the shelves.

Los Angeles Angels OF Jordyn Adams - MLB Prospect Breakdown

One prospect on my radar and selling for a good price is Jordyn Adams. As of the writing of this article, I have seen prices as low as $20 for a base autograph. My guess is this is due to his slow start. In my opinion, I would not worry about the numbers right now. Investing in his Bowman Chrome auto will be a long term hold. Two sport athletes out of high school take time to adjust to pro ball. He is walking 10.6% of the time and his K rate is around 26.7%. The kid is talented with upside.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Stats's Don't Lie - May 2019 MLB Prospect Report

Two months of the season is almost complete and I think its a good opportunity to look at some of the numbers. Who is performing at an elite level? Who's not? Check out some of the numbers below. Please note these numbers were recorded through the games played as of May 19th and were taken from Fangraphs.

Hitters

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - 0.197 ISO - One of my favorite hitters. The question is can he hit more home runs.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 12.20% K rate. He also has 16 extra base hits but is repeating a level so this is not a big surprise.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks - 13.50% walk rate. Smith already has 4 home runs on the year. Maybe he is tapping into his power finally. I also love the on base percentage (.333) despite the batting average.

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 21 extra base hits. He is finally getting it going.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - 0.186 ISO. Nick has 14 doubles and 3 triples but I am not sure if that is sustainable but his auto sells for a bargain.

Pitchers

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers - 0.89 BB/9 and 2.39 FIP. Casey is the real deal.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals - 8.86 K/9. Not a bad start and still an affordable buy.

Grayson Rodriguez - Baltimore Orioles - 13.65 K/9. His cards are heating up but you may still find bargains at the card shows.

Hitters I'm Worried About

Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics - 39.20% K rate. Not good.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals - 0.115 ISO. I would like to see more power. The walk rate is good so I am not too worried.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angles - 29.90% K rate. The swing and miss issues have to improve.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets  - 1 Home Run. He is only 18 but I wonder if he can develop power in the future. Still early.