Saturday, December 29, 2018

2018 Bowman Draft Baseball - Early Pricing Trends

2018 Bowman Draft has been out for two weeks and the pricing trends are very interesting. So far there are no big surprises. It seems the consumer has gotten smarter on who to buy. I wonder why. Please note my analysis is from the review of base auto prices on eBay. 

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies 3B - Selling for around $50-60. Too high for me right now.

Alek Thomas - Arizona Diamondbacks OF - Selling for $15-20.

Carlos Cortes - New York Mets 2B - Selling for under $10. A good bargain price.

Cole Roederer - Chicago Cubs OF - Selling for $15-25. Not bad.

Greyson Jenista - Atlanta Braves OF - Selling for $15. Waiting for a drop in cost.

Jordyn Adams - Los Angeles Angels OF - Selling for $30-40. Prices are way too high for me.

Josh Breaux - New York Yankees C - Selling for $5-15.

Jeremy Eierman - Oakland Athletics 2B - Selling for $5-10. Good cost. 

Jordan Groshans - Toronto Blue Jays SS - Selling for $30-40. Not surprised.

Jonathan India - Cincinnati Reds 3B - Selling for around $50. I am a little surprised.

Jeremiah Jackson - Los Angeles Angels SS - Selling for $25-30. Would like to see the price drop to around $15.

Jarred Kelenic - New York Mets OF (Traded to Seattle) - Selling for $40 -60. A little too high for me.

Jake McCarthy - Arizona Diamondbacks OF - Selling for $5-10. Good cost.

Kody Clemens - Detroit Tigers 2B - Selling for $15-20. Would like to see the price come down to about $10.

Luken Baker - St. Louis Cardinals 1B - Selling for $15-20. A little high in my opinion.

Nolan Gorman - St. Louis Cardinals 3B - Selling for over $100. Nope.

Nico Hoerner - Chicago Cubs 2B - Selling for $40-50. Nailed it.

Nick Madrigal - Chicago White Sox 2B - Selling for $50-60. For some reason I expect the price to drop.

Noah Naylor - Cleveland Indians C - Selling for $15-20. Not surprised.

Triston Casas - Boston Red Sox 3B - Selling for $40-50. Not surprised.

Tyler Frank - Tampa Bay Rays 2B - Bargain Bin

Trevor Larnach - Minnesota Twins OF - Selling for $25-35. Not surprised.

Tristan Pompey - Miami Marlins OF - Selling for $15. I expect this price to come down.

Travis Swaggerty - Pittsburgh Pirates OF - Selling for $15-25. I expect the price to stay closer to $15.

22 comments:

  1. Any thoughts on the impact of Jeter Downs being traded to Dodgers on his cards value going forward? Cincy isn't a big market but I liked the idea of him hitting in that ballpark.

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    1. Hello JB. Jeter Downs stock goes up. Bigger market and he is very talented. Josiah Gray is someone to watch too.

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  2. Thanks for this post! I always like the cost analysis targeting the best values and most overpriced players (even if they are promising)

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  3. Also, what do you consider as a base % multiplier to hold to for a 9.5/10 of each prospect's base price?

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    1. Hmm. That is a good question. Could you give me an example? Do you mean if a base auto is $15 how much would I pay for a 9.5/10?

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    2. Exactly. If a base auto goes for $15 what is your limit for a 9.5 generally $45 (lower/higher). And the same with a guy a base auto goes for $50? etc. Just curious.

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    3. Hmm. I think its case by case but say if a base auto is going for $15, I would not pay more than triple. For a higher end auto going for 50 it would be double. Depending on the player there could be a curve. I am willing to spend a little bit more if I believe in the prospect. A more conservative approach would be taken on a gamble. I hope this helps. I might do a study to see what the trends are.

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  4. Also, with Hoerner (nailed it) and India (a little surprised); Does that mean the values are what you expected or higher? Would you still rate as a buy or only if the prices go lower even though you like them as a prospect in general?

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    1. Another good question Crow. Keep these coming. For Nico it was the expected cost and for India I was surprised the cost was that high. I would rate both as a buy but it all depends on your budget. For me I am buying only if prices go lower. Both are good prospects but I need to see more production. Whenever I see a high end prospect I always note it depends on what you are willing to spend. Some guys sell for top prospect prices but have not shown top prospect production. Some guys are high end because of the market or where they got drafted. All of these variables matter.

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  5. Why are you surprised by Jonathan India's price? Just curious.

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    1. Hello Bryce. Thanks for the question.For me his debut performance was not anything off the charts. What I forgot to factor in is that he was a top 10 pick. A good case where draft position is driving the price up vs performance. High draft pick + High performance = Nolan Gorman. Were you not surprised?

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  6. Tyler Frank (Bargain Bin) - Do you mean the prices are good to buy? Or just that the prices are low overall?

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    1. Hello Gabe. Thanks for the comment. Good Question. It means both. The price is good and the prospect has good performance.

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  7. Hey JDM, I love the blog! I've read a few articles every now and then but am trying to follow more regularly now.

    I'm curious on your thoughts regarding base vs. color autos. For example, if you budget $100 to spend on a prospect who's base autos going for $20, would you prefer one color auto or 5 base autos? Or something in the middle, i.e. 1 base auto and a purple.

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    1. Thanks for the support. Glad you like the content. If its a prospect I really like, I would buy the color auto. No higher than blue. Blue's seem to be easier to sell. Not too out of reach for many purchasers.

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  8. What are your thoughts on Nico Hoerner? I've heard he's been tearing it up hitting wise, but sometimes players can fall flat once they reach the big leagues. I've read articles about him saying his hitting in the minors is great but he's barely in the top 20 I believe for OPS. Do you see his value increasing a lot when he debuts or maybe just increasing a little bit?

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    1. Thanks for the question Calbant. Nico is the clear cut top prospect in the Cubs system. He has had success in the fall league/spring training and should continue to receive a lot of attention. His recent success is promising but I need to see how he does when the season starts. The overall sample size is small. I think his value could increase in the minors and he could move quickly. The Cubs are a great market so growth is possible.

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    2. Thanks for answering! By the way, is there any website like yours but for hockey?

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    3. Nothing for hockey but maybe you should create one! Why not.

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  9. What's your view on nick pratto? Does he have the potential to be a superstar or will he just be a good player but not much more?

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    1. I would say good player at the moment. Don't be surprised if he climbs the charts this year. He is a good defender and has some good pop. A spike in prices would not surprise me.

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