Sunday, December 14, 2014

2014 Bowman Draft Prospects To Buy (Part 2)

Here are a few more prospects I like from the recently released 2014 Bowman Draft autograph class.

Jack Flaherty #STLCards - 1.59 ERA 28 K 22 IP in Rookie Ball - his 2014 Bowman Draft Autos are here -

Kyle Freeland 2014 Bowman Draft Autographs - 3-0 1.15 ERA in Rookie Ball -
Freeland also boasted an amazing groundball rate (2 GO/AO), which led to allowing only 1 home run in 39 IP.

2014 Bowman Draft Prospects To Buy (Part 1)

So, the first step I take whenever a new Bowman Prospects set comes out (2014 Bowman Draft was released this week), is I just simply take a look at what they did in rookie ball.  For pitchers, I believe the biggest indicator of future success is the K:IP ratio.  Simple, but effective.  It signifies dominant stuff.  A low amount of hits against is a nice back-up to that.  ERA means nothing and I don't put too much stock into BB for pitchers in Rookie ball.  These are still kids, not yet pitchers.

For hitters, I look for nice BB:K ratios and extra base hits.  The BB:K ratios tell me the hitter is advanced and has an idea of what he's doing at the plate.  He isn't getting overmatched by the opposing pitcher.  Extra base hits are more important than home runs because many of the doubles and triples translate to home runs in the future as the prospect grows and gets stronger.

So, here are the first 3 of the prospects I found with 2014 Bowman Draft autographs who I like:

Bargain Bin Alert #Orioles Prospect Brian Gonzalez
His autos range from $4-10, putting him at the low end of the spectrum, yet he K's 36 in 33.2 IP, and held hitters to a .179 average.  He was a third rounder so he might just be overlooked right now.

#Astros Prospect A.J. Reed 
Reed is in the $7-10 category as well, but the dude is built like a linebacker and hit 33 extra base hits in only 249 ABs.  His 30 BB were also good enough to give him an OBP of .375.

#Athletics Dillon Overton
Overton is a STRONG BUY. His 53 K in 37 IP are almost as impressive as his 4 BB allowed.  The kid must have pounded the strike zone with unhittable stuff.  His autos are only about $3, probably due to his age (23), but that doesn't mean he has no future.

Stay tuned for more...

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

2014 Bowman Chrome Draft Checklist

As always, ANY and ALL donations are greatly appreciated!!! Simply click below and enter any amount you are comfortable with.

Just click the player to see his stats:

A.J. Reed - Houston Astros
Aaron Nola - Philadelphia Phillies
Alex Blandino - Cincinnati Reds
Alex Jackson - Seattle Mariners
Alex Verdugo - Los Angeles Dodgers
Aramis Garcia - San Francisco Giants
Austin DeCarr - New York Yankees
Blake Anderson - Miami Marlins
Bradley Zimmer - Cleveland Indians
Braxton Davidson - Atlanta Braves
Brian Gonzalez - Baltimore Orioles
Cameron Varga - Tampa Bay Rays
Carson Sands - Chicago Cubs
Chad Sobotka - Atlanta Braves
Chase Vallot - Kansas City Royals
Chris Ellis - Los Angeles Angels
Cole Tucker - Pittsburgh Pirates
Connor Joe - Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Fisher - Houston Astros
Derek Hill - Detroit Tigers
Dillon Overton - Oakland Athletics
Dylan Cease - Chicago Cubs
Erick Fedde - Washington Nationals
Forrest Wall - Colorado Rockies
Foster Griffin - Kansas City Royals
Gareth Morgan - Seattle Mariners
Garrett Fulenchek - Atlanta Braves
Grant Hockin - Cleveland Indians
Grant Holmes - Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack Flaherty - St. Louis Cardinals
Jacob Gatewood - Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Lindgren - New York Yankees
Jake Stinnett - Chicago Cubs
Jakson Reetz - Washington Nationals
Jeff Brigham - Los Angeles Dodgers
Jeff Hoffman - Toronto Blue Jays
Joe Gatto - Los Angeles Angels
Johnny Manziel - San Diego Padres
Justin Twine - Miami Marlins
Justus Sheffield - Cleveland Indians
Kodi Medeiros - Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Freeland - Colorado Rockies
Kyle Schwarber - Chicago Cubs
Luis Ortiz - Texas Rangers
Luke Weaver - St. Louis Cardinals
Marcus Wilson - Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Chapman - Oakland Athletics
Matt Imhof - Philadelphia Phillies
Max Pentecost - Toronto Blue Jays
Michael Chavis - Boston Red Sox
Michael Gettys - San Diego Padres
Michael Kopech - Boston Red Sox
Mike Papi - Cleveland Indians
Monte Harrison - Milwaukee Brewers
Nick Burdi - Minnesota Twins
Nick Gordon - Minnesota Twins
Nick Howard - Cincinnati Reds
Nick Wells - Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Castellani - Colorado Rockies
Ryan Ripken - Washington Nationals
Scott Blewett - Kansas City Royals
Sean Newcomb - Los Angeles Angels
Sean Reid-Foley - Toronto Blue Jays
Spencer Adams - Chicago White Sox
Taylor Sparks - Cincinnati Reds
Ti'Quan Forbes - Texas Rangers
Trea Turner - San Diego Padres
Trey Supak - Pittsburgh Pirates
Tyler Beede - San Francisco Giants
Tyler Kolek - Miami Marlins
Zech Lemond - San Diego Padres

Monday, November 17, 2014

#Mets in the 2015 Playoffs? Maybe!

Yes, you read that title correctly. Here we come, baby. Mets fans unite. All systems are a go.

Last night, Sandy Alderson made a very intriguing comment (not unlike last year's prediction for 90 wins).  Talking about how to manage Matt Harvey's return from Tommy John surgery, Alderson said, “The key for us is figuring out a way to manage [Harvey's] season so that he’s available to us if or when we get to the postseason."  HELLOOOOO!!

In addition to Alderson's comment, manager Terry Collins added, “We should be playing in October.  Our young guys are starting to grow, with the addition of some offense, and ... we’re not done. I don’t think (GM) Sandy (Alderson) by any means (is done)... we’re going to make some more moves before spring training starts.” Collins concluded, “I think 2015 is going to be a good year for us.”

Now let's delve into this a bit.  I'll use WAR as a baseline for expectations.

Last year, the Mets finished with 79 wins.

In CF, we still have gold glover Juan Lagares, and in RF, we still have the Grandy man.  But, in LF we added Cuddyer.  For the most part, we had Eric and Chris Young in LF, both of whom had a combined 0.9.  Cuddyer could be around a 1.8 with a healthy year, so bump that 79 win total up to 80 wins.

In 2013, Harvey's WAR was 5.2.  That's about 4 more WAR than the Mets #5 SP produced in 2014.  So, a healthy season for Harvey bumps us up to 84 wins conservatively.  That's now a winning team (84-78).

Jacob deGrom, Mr. Rookie of the Year, had a 3.1 WAR in only 22 starts.  If he continues to pitch the way he has, but throughout the course of a full season, that would add another WAR.  Now, we're up to a record of 85-77.

In the infield, Duda, Wright, Murphy, and d'Arnaud will probably remain, with question marks surrounding Ruben Tejada, who owned a WAR of 1.4.  The Mets are interested in upgrading, and Alexei Ramirez's name has been thrown around.  Alexei had a nice WAR of 3.0 (1.6 more WAR than Ruben).  If we can get Alexei or a similar SS like Starlin, bump our wins up to 86.  Now we're really rolling at 86-76.

Now let's get a little crazy.  Wright and Granderson had off years.  Wright's 2.8 WAR last year pales in comparison to his 5.8 in 2013 and 7.0 in 2012.  That's a 3-4 win drop from his norm.  Granderson's 1.3 WAR was also about 3 wins below his norm while with the Yankees.  Now, the Mets have moved in the fences and we can expect better numbers from both players, especially in the power department.  Best case scenario, if both Wright and Granderson increase their WAR to their normal range (+3 for each), that's 6 more wins, which puts us at 92 wins (70 losses) ... a playoff team.

Sure, everything has to fall into place, considerations have to be made for more moves and struggles from rookies (Syndergaard?), players have to stay healthy, and we probably need some help at SS, but hey, it doesn't hurt to dream. 

Mets old fashioned logo Mr. Met
Movin' on up...

#Yankees Prospect Greg Bird Wins Arizona Fall League MVP

Yankees prospect Greg Bird is making a name for himself this offseason, winning MVP honors in the AFL as well as the Fall Stars Game.

Topping the AFL with 6 HR, finishing second with 21 RBI, and batting .313 was enough for the 22-year old to take home the 2014 Joe Black Award.

Does this award predict future success?  Well, previous winners include Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Hanson, and Dustin Ackley, all of whom have/had Bowman Chrome prospect autographs that are/were in the high end spectrum at one point or another.

I think we can reasonably assume Bird will get a bump in pricing, and it has already begun, but I think he is still a good buy.

Just click here to GET SOME!

Greg Bird wins the AFL MVP award
Greg Bird wins the AFL MVP award.