Saturday, October 21, 2017

PFC's 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Analysis Part 2

2017 Bowman Chrome prices have started to settle down and I have provided updates on my BUY and WATCH recommendations based off current prices. Please note that I am referencing base auto prices via EBAY using the awesome price guide provided by www.dailywax.com. If you have any comments feel free to leave one on the site or message me on Twitter @Prospects4Cash. Thanks for reading! 
 
 
 
Albert Abreu - New York Yankees, P - Avg Auto price is $15. Buy. 

Austin Hays - Baltimore Orioles, OF - Avg Auto price is $65-$70. I love him as a prospect but only buy if you have the cash or can trade.
Adrian Morejon - San Diego Padres, P - Avg Auto price is $12. Still a Watch for me. 
Anderson Tejeda - Texas Rangers, SS - Avg Auto price is $5. Bargain Bin Buy.
Dawel Lugo - Arizona Diamondbacks, 3B - Strong Buy. Avg Auto price is $4
 
Griffin Jax - Minnesota Twins, P - Avg Auto price is $6. Bargain Bin Buy.

Grayson Long - Los Angeles Angels, P - Avg Auto price is $3. Bargain Bin Buy

Heath Quinn - San Francisco Giants, OF - Avg Auto price is $5. Still a Watch due to the K rate.

Jazz Chisholm - Arizona Diamondbacks, SS - Avg Auto price is $4. Bargain Bin Buy.

Jon Duplantier - Arizona Diamondbacks, P - Avg Auto price is $17. I still rate Jon as a Pass. I'm worried about the injury history.

Jameson Fisher - Chicago White Sox, OF - Avg Auto price is $4. Bargain Bin Buy.

Jorge Ona - San Diego Padres, OF - Avg Auto price is $12. Upgrade to Strong Buy.
Jesus Sanchez - Tampa Bay Rays, OF - Buy if you have the budget but the average price is $36. 

Keegan Akin - Baltimore Orioles, P - Avg Auto price is $6. Still a Watch.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals, OF - Strong Buy. Avg Auto price is is $10. I love the potential here.
 
Lazarito Armenteros - Oakland Athletics, OF - Avg Auto price is is $30. Buy if it stays under that number.

Luis Alexander Basabe - Chicago White Sox, OF- Watch. I want to see improvement before purchasing. Auto's are under $5.

Logan Ice - Cleveland Indians, C - Upgrade to buy. Avg price is $10.
Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates, P - Strong Buy. Pirates have another potential stud. Try to buy if under $20. Update - Avg price is $16 and trending up.

Max Schrock - Oakland Athletics, 2B - I rate Max as a Buy. Avg price is $12. I would not buy if it rises past $15.

Mitchell White - Los Angeles Dodgers, P - Strong Buy. Avg Auto price is is $17.

Nick Banks - Washington Nationals, OF - Avg Auto price is is $5. Bargain Bin Buy.

Ryan Howard - San Francisco Giants, SS - Bargain Bin Buy. Another prospect scouts are not talking about but the stats say otherwise. Avg price is $4.

Starling Heredia - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Strong Buy. Avg Auto price is is $25. I would not buy if it goes higher.

Sixto Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies, P - Strong Buy based on talent but only buy an Auto if you have the cash or can trade.  

Torii Hunter Jr. - Los Angeles Angels, OF -Avg price is $15. I will rate as a Watch still. Need to see production at A and AA. Be prepared to buy fast if he plays well.

Vladimir Gutierrez - Cincinnati Reds, P - Watch. Need to see more K's per 9. Avg Auto price is is $4.

Wander Javier - Minnesota Twins, SS - Watch. Younger prospect with upside but the prices seem to be a little too high for a prospect that you hope develops power. Update - Avg Auto price is is $17. I'll wait.

Yusniel Diaz - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Avg price is $32. I would Pass.

Sunday, October 1, 2017

PFC's 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Analysis - Full Review of Every Prospect Auto

Topps has released 2017 Bowman Chrome Baseball and the prospect autograph list is longer than expected. I have researched every prospect's stats and have provided thoughts and early recommendations. Cases are still being opened so prices may be a little inflated but should normalize in a few weeks. If you are ripping wax you most likely will sell immediately to make your profits so all suggestions may not apply. If you have any comments feel free to leave one on the site or message me on Twitter @Prospects4Cash. Thanks for reading!
Albert Abreu - New York Yankees, P - Nice prospect with upside. Keep an eye on him. Remember prices for Yankee prospects tend to be inflated. Buy.

Andrew Calica - Cleveland Indians, OF - Calica put up nice numbers this season. I am just not sure if he will hit for enough pop. I rate him as a Watch.

Austin Hays - Baltimore Orioles, OF - Austin Hays is a Strong Buy based off the stats but prices are close to $100. Hays is talented. 

Andy Ibanez - Texas Rangers, 2B - Older prospect that has repeated AA. Decent numbers but I don't see a big upside. Pass.

Anthony Kay - New York Mets, P - Kay had Tommy John surgery and will not pitch until 2018. Pass

Adrian Morejon - San Diego Padres, P - Very young prospect with a high amount of walks. I would wait to see if he can increase he K/9 rate and improve his command. I rate him as a Watch

Alfredo Rodriguez - Cincinnati Reds, SS - Alfredo is a great prospect but I'm not sure if the pop is there. He should start next season in AA but I am leaning towards a Pass rating.

Anderson Tejeda - Texas Rangers, SS - Another young prospect with a high strikeout rate. I would keep an eye on him. Watch.

Alberto Tirado - Philadelphia Phillies, P - Pass. K/9 rate is decent but the walks are too high for me. 

Bryson Brigman - Seattle Mariners, 2B - Pass. Not enough pop and the Seattle market struggles to sell.

Braden Bishop - Seattle Mariners, OF - See above.

Brian Mundell - Colorado Rockies, 1B - Pass. Nice stats but Rockies prospects do not sell unless they are a superstar.

Clint Frazier - New York Yankees, OF - Pass. The first auto is always the best one.

Chris Paddack - San Diego Padres, P - Pass. Tommy John.

Cole Stobbe - Philadelphia Phillies, 3B - Pass. Strikeout rate is too high for me.

Chih-Wei Hu - Tampa Bay Rays, P - Pass. Not enough strikeouts for me to invest. Save your money and wait for McKay.

David Fletcher - Los Angeles Angels, 2B - Pass. Not enough power for me.

Daniel Gossett - Oakland Athletics, P - Pass. Need to see more K's.

Dawel Lugo - Arizona Diamondbacks, 3B - Strong Buy. Great power numbers with a respectable strikeout rate. 

Dinelson Lamet - San Diego Padres, P - Pass. 25yr old prospect already in the majors.

Felix Jorge - Minnesota Twins, P - Pass. Seems to be a reliever vs starter.

Francisco Mejia - Cleveland Indians, C - Pass. See Clint Frazier.

Gage Hinsz - Pittsburgh Pirates, P - Pass. Not enough K's and his FIP is too high.

Griffin Jax - Minnesota Twins, P - Watch. Sample size is too small.

Grayson Long - Los Angeles Angels, P - Watch. Long put up some nice numbers in 2017.

Heath Quinn - San Francisco Giants, OF - Watch. I want to see his K rate come down. He seems to swing for the fences.

Isaiah White - Cincinnati Reds, OF- Pass. Long term project.

Jose Azocar - Detroit Tigers, OF - Pass. Not enough pop.

Jazz Chisholm - Arizona Diamondbacks, SS - Young prospect that is a project but shows flashes of power. I rate Jazz as a Buy.

Jon Duplantier - Arizona Diamondbacks, P - Pass. Long injury history and may be moved to the pen.

Jameson Fisher - Chicago White Sox, OF - Jameson is a good prospect but I would like to see the K rate drop a little. I rate Fisher as a Watch. He seems to have decent power potential.

Jorge Ona - San Diego Padres, OF - Buy if under $25. 20 year old prospect with a 8.6% walk rate and a 25% K rate. The power numbers are there.

Jesus Sanchez - Tampa Bay Rays, OF - Strong Buy. Jesus hit 15 home runs and his extra base hits are at the levels I want to see (13 doubles/7 Triples). The K rate is also a plus (17.8%).

Josh Sborz - Los Angeles Dodgers, P - Pass. Not enough K's. Too many walks.

Jose Trevino - Texas Rangers, C - Pass. I like the stats but he's a little too old in my opinion.

Keegan Akin - Baltimore Orioles, P - Watch. Let's see if he can cut down on the walks. Most likely a 4/5 starter.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals, OF - Strong Buy. The strikeouts are high but Lee is only 19 years old and is a long term project.

Luis Arraez - Minnesota Twins, 2B - Pass. No pop.

Lazarito Armenteros - Oakland Athletics, OF - Buy. Young prospect but seems to have good pop and hit for a decent average.

Luis Alexander Basabe - Chicago White Sox, OF- Watch. I want to see improvement before purchasing. Auto's are under $5.

Lewis Brinson - Milwaukee Brewers, OF - Pass. See Clint Frazier. 

Logan Ice - Cleveland Indians, C - Pass. Stats are nice but he is blocked. Buy if he is traded.

Leody Taveras - Texas Rangers, OF - Pass. See Clint Frazier. 

Miguel Gomez - San Francisco Giants, 2B - Older prospect that had a cup of coffee in the majors. I will Pass.

Michael Kopech - Chicago White Sox, P - Pass. See Clint Frazier.

Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates, P - Strong Buy. Pirates have another potential stud. Try to buy if under $20. Injuries have kept him low on prospect lists.

Magneuris Sierra - St. Louis Cardinals, OF - Pass. Speedster with good defense.

Max Schrock - Oakland Athletics, 2B - I rate as a Buy. Auto's are low but he seems to be a good hitter with 20HR potential.

Meibrys Viloria - Kansas City Royals, C - Pass. Long term project with power. I usually do not buy catchers due how long it takes to develop them.

Mitchell White - Los Angeles Dodgers, P - Strong Buy. Mitchell's ground ball rate is high and the K rate is also where it needs to be. Injuries have kept him off lists.

Nick Banks - Washington Nationals, OF - Scouts seem to doubt Nick but the extra base hits are there and the strikeout rate is not bad. Buy.

Ofelky Peralta - Baltimore Orioles, P - Pass. Walk rate is high. Seems to have command issues.

Ryan Howard - San Francisco Giants, SS - Bargain Bin Buy. Another prospect scouts are not talking about but the stats say otherwise.

Ryan O'Hearn - Kansas City Royals, 1B - Pass. Older prospect with a high K rate.

Steven Duggar - San Francisco Giants, OF - Pass. Injury history with no pop.

Starling Heredia - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Strong Buy. Only 18 years old and has power potential. He has some swing and miss but at his age there is plenty of time. I trust the organization.

Sixto Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies, P - Strong Buy. Talented arm and his command is above average.

Trevor Clifton - Chicago Cubs, P - Pass. Command is not there and could move to bullpen.

Torii Hunter Jr. - Los Angeles Angels, OF - Late start due to his college football career but its obvious that rookie ball was too easy. I want to see if he can develop some power. Watch for now but be ready to Buy immediately if power numbers spike. He needs to be tested in Advanced A or AA.

Tomas Nido - New York Mets, C - Pass. Love the stats but I think he is a backup.

Vladimir Gutierrez - Cincinnati Reds, P - Watch. Need to see more K's per 9.

Wander Javier - Minnesota Twins, SS - Watch. Younger prospect with upside but the prices seem to be a little too high for a prospect that you hope develops power.

Yusniel Diaz - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Diaz is probably the hottest prospect in this product and deserves a BUY rating. He repeated A+ ball this year but did not tear it up as people expected. The stats were exactly the same. I would wait until prices settle to buy. He is still working on his swing and youth is on his side. If a base auto drops to $20, buy immediately. Prices are way too high. Diaz's case is a perfect storm of stats showing the real picture vs market demand (Los Angeles) and top prospect lists creating price spikes.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Admitting Mistakes - Why I Missed San Diego Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr

When the 2016 edition of Bowman was released, I placed Fernando Tatis Jr on my short list of recommendations but ultimately left him off my final list. Why did I pass? Well the main reason and only reason was because of the strikeout rate. My dislike for strikeouts has cost me this year. It seems that across the industry strikeouts really don't matter in the minors or majors. Tatis's strikeout rate was over 20% this season but a 20/20 season has made his card prices spike. Even though the view on striking out has changed, I will still value the prospects with plate discipline over the ones with high strikeout rates. I think the proper approach to take is to perform research on the player to see if he is working on making more contact at the plate. Invest in a few autos and when improvements  show buy immediately before a substantial increase occurs.

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Bargain Bin - Cleveland Indians Will Benson & Yu-Cheng Chang

As we head into the offseason there are many bargain bin candidates that I will present to the readers to invest in. The first two are Will Benson and Yu-Cheng Chang. Both are considered to be projects but I have confidence that each player will make the adjustments to cut down on strikeouts in pro ball. The power potential for both players makes you excited and the Indians do a great job with developing players. Auto's are less than 10 bucks. I would definitely consider grabbing a few and holding.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

September Call Ups - Buy, Sell or Hold

One of my followers on Twitter recently asked me about a player and presented the question on should they sell or hold. I will always advocate selling if you are comfortable making a profit that meets your goal. In many cases when September call ups happen I always proceed with caution. A player may produce amazing numbers simply because there is not much of a scouting report on him. Some players may struggle and not produce immediately. Overall, one month of at bats in the majors is not enough data to determine if a player will be good or not. I have provided some advice below on how to handle certain situations.

Scenario #1 - Player is on fire after call up (e.g. Rhys Hoskins) - Sell to collect profits and initial investment. Maybe hold a few for the long term. When situations like this occur I always expect a correction the next season due to adjustments made by pitching staffs (Eric Thames). Same applies for pitchers.When a player stats dips you always have to ask yourself if that player can make multiple adjustments.

Scenario #2 - Player struggles after call up (e.g Yoan Moncada) - Hold. Some players take time to adjust to the Majors so struggling is not a surprise. You may want to possibly BUY more of a player if prices dip in December. People may sell off due to panic. Be careful not to overreact. Same rules applies for pitchers.


How To Prepare For The Arizona Fall League

The Arizona Fall League recently released their rosters for the upcoming season and did not disappoint. There are a number of top prospects playing this year as well other players that are on my radar. I think the Fall League is the best test for prospects outside of the jump from A ball to AA or a promotion to the Majors. Prospectors should take player performance very seriously. Success in the Fall League is a good indicator on if a prospect will produce in the Majors.


Arizona Fall League Rosters via Baseball America

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Los Angeles Angels OF Jahmai Jones On Fire

Jahmai Jones is on fire in Hi-A with a 22 game hitting streak. I predicted earlier in the season that he would have a bounce back season. The Angles are in the Wild Card hunt but the team could still use all the help it can get. I expect the Angels to move Jones as fast as possible. He is still rated as a STRONG BUY.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Los Angeles Dodgers 2B/SS Gavin Lux - Turning the Corner?

Gavin Lux has turned the corner after a rough start to a season. Despite hitting for a .219 average he has a walk rate of 13% and a K rate of 17% with 394 plate appearances. I think his start to the season was so bad his average was never going to recover. Prices are a bargain due to him being kept off various hot lists. Lux seems to have good plate discipline so the low average does not worry me at all. The Dodgers have a good track record of developing hitters. I rate him as a STRONG BUY.

Monday, July 31, 2017

A Few Impressive Hitting Prospects

I took some time over the weekend to run some numbers and the results are interesting. Here are a few hitters who are having impressive seasons. All of the names have a minimum of 175 plate appearances, a strikeout rate of less than 20%, a walk rate (BB) greater than 8% and an ISO (Isolated Power) greater than .140. The report shows hitters who have plate discipline and power. The overall list is not long.

Bo Bichette (TOR) - 16.20% K rate - 8.40% BB - 0.212 ISO
Brandon Lowe (TB)  - 17.50% K rate - 12.80% BB - 0.218 ISO
Lewis Brinson (MIL) -  18.90% K rate - 10.10% BB - 0.225 ISO
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 17.60% K rate - 9.50% BB - 0.267 ISO
Rhys Hoskins (PHI)-  15.50% K rate - 13.50% BB - 0.280 ISO
Willie Calhoun (TEX) - 12.00% K rate - 8.30% BB - 0.278 ISO
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 20.00% K rate - 12.80% BB - 0..193 ISO
Ronald Guzman (TEX) -  15.50% K rate - 9.10% BB - 0.163 ISO - Buy
Carson Kelly (STL) -  14.30% K rate - 11.80% BB - 0.176 ISO - Needs a Chrome Auto
DJ Stewart (BAL) -  16.80% K rate - 11.10% BB - 0.174 ISO - Bargain Bin Buy
Jahmai Jones (LAA) -  16.70% K rate - 8.30% BB - 0.144 ISO - STRONG BUY
JP Crawford (PHI) - 17.00% K rate - 14.80% BB - 0.145 ISO - Buy if under $20. Hold if you already own.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Why New York Yankees OF Blake Rutherford Was Traded

Brian Cashman has done a great job over the past few years restocking the farm. Some fans wonder why he traded Blake Rutherford to the Chicago White Sox. Well the reason is because of Estevan Florial. Hopefully he has a Chrome auto this November.

Estevan Florial Stats via Fangraphs