Monday, November 17, 2014

#Mets in the 2015 Playoffs? Maybe!

Yes, you read that title correctly. Here we come, baby. Mets fans unite. All systems are a go.

Last night, Sandy Alderson made a very intriguing comment (not unlike last year's prediction for 90 wins).  Talking about how to manage Matt Harvey's return from Tommy John surgery, Alderson said, “The key for us is figuring out a way to manage [Harvey's] season so that he’s available to us if or when we get to the postseason."  HELLOOOOO!!

In addition to Alderson's comment, manager Terry Collins added, “We should be playing in October.  Our young guys are starting to grow, with the addition of some offense, and ... we’re not done. I don’t think (GM) Sandy (Alderson) by any means (is done)... we’re going to make some more moves before spring training starts.” Collins concluded, “I think 2015 is going to be a good year for us.”

Now let's delve into this a bit.  I'll use WAR as a baseline for expectations.

Last year, the Mets finished with 79 wins.

In CF, we still have gold glover Juan Lagares, and in RF, we still have the Grandy man.  But, in LF we added Cuddyer.  For the most part, we had Eric and Chris Young in LF, both of whom had a combined 0.9.  Cuddyer could be around a 1.8 with a healthy year, so bump that 79 win total up to 80 wins.

In 2013, Harvey's WAR was 5.2.  That's about 4 more WAR than the Mets #5 SP produced in 2014.  So, a healthy season for Harvey bumps us up to 84 wins conservatively.  That's now a winning team (84-78).

Jacob deGrom, Mr. Rookie of the Year, had a 3.1 WAR in only 22 starts.  If he continues to pitch the way he has, but throughout the course of a full season, that would add another WAR.  Now, we're up to a record of 85-77.

In the infield, Duda, Wright, Murphy, and d'Arnaud will probably remain, with question marks surrounding Ruben Tejada, who owned a WAR of 1.4.  The Mets are interested in upgrading, and Alexei Ramirez's name has been thrown around.  Alexei had a nice WAR of 3.0 (1.6 more WAR than Ruben).  If we can get Alexei or a similar SS like Starlin, bump our wins up to 86.  Now we're really rolling at 86-76.

Now let's get a little crazy.  Wright and Granderson had off years.  Wright's 2.8 WAR last year pales in comparison to his 5.8 in 2013 and 7.0 in 2012.  That's a 3-4 win drop from his norm.  Granderson's 1.3 WAR was also about 3 wins below his norm while with the Yankees.  Now, the Mets have moved in the fences and we can expect better numbers from both players, especially in the power department.  Best case scenario, if both Wright and Granderson increase their WAR to their normal range (+3 for each), that's 6 more wins, which puts us at 92 wins (70 losses) ... a playoff team.

Sure, everything has to fall into place, considerations have to be made for more moves and struggles from rookies (Syndergaard?), players have to stay healthy, and we probably need some help at SS, but hey, it doesn't hurt to dream. 

Mets old fashioned logo Mr. Met
Movin' on up...

#Yankees Prospect Greg Bird Wins Arizona Fall League MVP

Yankees prospect Greg Bird is making a name for himself this offseason, winning MVP honors in the AFL as well as the Fall Stars Game.

Topping the AFL with 6 HR, finishing second with 21 RBI, and batting .313 was enough for the 22-year old to take home the 2014 Joe Black Award.

Does this award predict future success?  Well, previous winners include Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Hanson, and Dustin Ackley, all of whom have/had Bowman Chrome prospect autographs that are/were in the high end spectrum at one point or another.

I think we can reasonably assume Bird will get a bump in pricing, and it has already begun, but I think he is still a good buy.

Just click here to GET SOME!

Greg Bird wins the AFL MVP award
Greg Bird wins the AFL MVP award.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

BUY BEN LIVELY (SP, Cincinnati Reds, 2014 Bowman Chrome Autograph)

I am utterly shocked at the pricing of Ben Lively's NEW Bowman Chrome autos.  When chrome autos drop, all players are typically overpriced at first.  Yet, one of my favorite pitching prospects, is actually UNDERVALUED.  The only explanation could be that it's the offseason but the fact remains, buying Ben Lively could be a very profitable move eventually...

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Salt River dominance

As I mentioned previously, Salt River probably has the best talent in the Arizona Fall League and they've been dominating.  They are 15-5, with only 1 other team having a winning record (Mesa is 11-10).

Their dominance is mainly due to their pitching, which boasts a 2.73 team ERA and miniscule 1.13 WHIP.  DeSclafani, Appel, and Aquino have been leading the way.