Sunday, September 23, 2018

2018 Bowman Chrome Baseball - Prospect Checklist Review

2018 Bowman Chrome Baseball releases this week and I wanted to provide my thoughts before the release. Please review the breakdown below. I will write a follow up after prices settle. The recommendations below are all based off performance and not card prices. If you have any questions please email me at prospectsforprofit@gmail.com or on Twitter @prospectsforcash. Overall I think the checklist is a C+ due to a number of older prospects being included.

Brett Cumberland - Atlanta Braves C - A little older prospect but the K rate is 25%. I want to see an improvement before purchasing.

Brayan Hernandez - Miami Marlins OF  - Pass. I don't see huge power potential here.

Chris DeVito - Kansas City Royals 1B - Pass. No pop.

Carlos Rincon - Los Angeles Dodgers OF - Buy. Love the power numbers and I am making the bet that the K rate drops. He need to keep it under 25%.

Daniel Gonzalez - Boston Red Sox P - Decent numbers but not enough for me to purchase.

Estevan Florial - New York Yankees OF - Love his talent but he will be overpriced due to being a Yankee prospect. Too high of a price to pay and too many strikeouts for me to recommend. I wonder what his auto cost would be if he was not a Yankee.

Gavin LaValley - Cincinnati Reds 1B - Another decent prospect but nothing really blows me away here.

Heath Fillmyer - Oakland Athletics P - Too old and the K/9 rate is not the best.

Jaime Barria - Los Angeles Angels P - Pass. Stats look very average to me.

Jose Gomez - Philadelphia Phillies 2B - Pass. No pop.

James Nelson - Miami Marlins 3B - Nelson is a buy for me. He had injuries during the 2018 season but I like the power numbers and I think he can improve on the strikeouts. I will take a small position.

Jake Ring - Baltimore Orioles OF - Pass. 24 and has not touched AA.

Jake Rogers - Detroit Tigers C - I like the profile but I think he has too much swing and miss.

Kyle Cody - Texas Rangers P - Pass. 24 and has not played in AA.

Kyle Young - Philadelphia Phillies P - Decent numbers but nothing blows me away. Pass.

Michel Baez - San Diego Padres P - A buy for me. The numbers jump out. Potential #2 starter.

Matthias Dietz - Baltimore Orioles P - Pass. Nothing really moves the needle to me.

Matt Hall - Detroit Tigers P - Pass. 25 years of age.

Nick Fanti - Philadelphia Phillies P - Pass. Not enough innings in 2018 for me.
Ryan Helsley - St. Louis Cardinals P - I love the numbers but the reports say he may be a bullpen guy. Pass.

Ranger Suarez - Philadelphia Phillies P - Pass. K/9 rate is too low.

Shao-Ching Chiang - Cleveland Indians P - Pass. K/9 rate is too low.

Seth Romero - Washington Nationals P - Romero is a buy for me . Not a lot of innings but this guy can pitch and will be a starter. I will take a small position depending on price.

Travis Lakins - Boston Red Sox P - Numbers are not bad at all but he is not a top end starter. Pass.

Willie Abreu - Colorado Rockies OF -  I really like the numbers but he is a Rockies prospect. If he gets traded I would buy.

Yordan Alvarez - Houston Astros OF - Very impressive prospect. I would buy but the price has to be right. He may be on the high end out of the gate.

Aramis Ademan - Chicago Cubs SS - Ademan will most likely be the Cubs top prospect going into 2019. He won't hit for a lot of power but I am curious to see what his auto will go for. I will watch for now.

Austin Allen - San Diego Padres C - 24 years of age but had good numbers in AA. Due to the age I would have to pass. Buying one auto would not hurt though for the right price.

Akil Baddoo - Minnesota Twins OF - I am recommending a buy here. Please be aware that he is a project and if you buy the hope is that the Twins and Akil will work on cutting down the K's. If he improves a 20-20 player is the ceiling. I need to see where prices settle at before writing more.

Antoni Flores - Boston Red Sox SS - Not a lot of data on this player. But that is not a bad thing. If you buy you are relying 100% on the scouting reports.

Alex Wells - Baltimore Orioles P - K/9 too low. Pass.

Brusdar Graterol - Minnesota Twins P - Love the numbers but he has already had injury issues. Pass.
Brendon Little - Chicago Cubs - Pass. K/9 not high enough for me.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angels - Marsh is a strong buy for me but is a gamble. I am aware of the high K rate but love his 5 tool potential. The bet I am making is that he will improve and hit for more power. He will be 21 during the 2019 season.  For other prospectors, I 100% understand why you would pass.

Charcer Burks - Chicago Cubs OF - Pass. No pop.

Conner Capel - Cleveland Indians OF - Capel is a watch for me. He just was traded to the Cardinals. I am interested in how he develops with them. Right now he is hitting for a little power.

Cole Freeman - Washington Nationals 2B - Pass. 23 years old in A ball. College bat who was just drafted in 2017. His extra base hits are not bad though.

Carter Kieboom - Washington Nationals SS - A high end prospect. Prices will be insane.

Chase Pinder - St. Louis Cardinals OF - Pass. Decent numbers but I don't see a lot of upside here.

Connor Seabold - Philadelphia Phillies P - Numbers are not bad. Worth a watch. I want to see more data before buying.
 
Chris Torres - Miami Marlins - Pass. Good player but the K's are too much of an issue. Not sure if he can improve those issues.

Darwinzon Hernandez - Boston Red Sox  P - Watch. Very solid numbers but needs the BB/9 rate to drop 50%.

Dustin May - Los Angeles Dodgers P - Another good Dodgers pitching prospect. Does not walk a lot of batters. Not a front line starter so I will have to pass.

Daulton Varsho - Arizona Diamondbacks - Strong buy for me. Will be 22 most of the 2019 season. He had a few injuries but the K rate is 20% and the walk rate is solid. He can also hit for power. Varsho is one of the few catching prospects that I would recommend. My hope is that prices are reasonable. In addition, he also stole 19 bases in 2018. 

Eduardo Diaz - Arizona Diamondbacks OF - Watch. Played decent in A ball but struck out 31% of the time. Seems to be a project.

Enyel De Los Santos - Philadelphia Phillies P - Pass.

Edwin Rios - Los Angeles Dodgers 1B - 24 years of age. Seems to be stuck in AAA. Pass.
Evan Steele - Kansas City Royals P - Pass. Not much out there. I think he may have gotten injured.

Franklin Perez - Detroit Tigers P - Young but I need to see more data. Pass but I am watching.

Gregory Soto - Detroit Tigers P - Pass. Too many walks.

Jose Albertos - Chicago Cubs P - Watch. Stats are all over the place. I want to see if he can get back on track. Only 19 years old.

Joe Dunand - Miami Marlins SS - Worth a watch but I want to see how he does in a full season at AA. Decent pop. Seems like a 15hr guy.

Jorge Guzman - Miami Marlins P - Pass. Walk rate needs to improve.

Joey Lucchesi - San Diego Padres P - Pass. 25 years of age.

Jonathan Loaisiga - New York Yankees P - Yankees are the best at developing pitchers. Not sure if I would buy though. He may go to the bullpen.
 
Jairo Solis - Houston Astros P - Only 18 years of age. Walks are up there. A buy but you need to be aware that he is a project.

Kevin Maitan - Los Angeles Angels - Pass. Second auto.

Kristian Robinson - Arizona Diamondbacks - Buy. Please be warned this is a long term project buy. Robinson is only 17 years of age but is a 5 tool prospect. The swing and miss is there but he continues to make adjustments. I think he has the chance to be a really good power/speed prospect.

Luis Guillorme - New York Mets 2B - Not a bad talent but the power numbers are not there.

Luis Garcia - Washington Nationals -Only 18 and is a strong buy. I think there is power potential here. A lot of upside and will take time but is worth the risk.

Luis Medina - New York Yankees P - Only 19 but is a project. If you buy now you are trusting the Yankees to develop him.

Leonardo Rivas - Los Angeles Angels 2B - Pass. Low extra base hits numbers.

Logan Shore - Oakland Athletics P - Pass. Not a front end starter.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 19 years of age. 16.3% K rate 10% walk rate but I need more power. It is a chance it could happen. The price has to be right for me to buy.

Luis Urias - San Diego Padres 2B - I expect him to be on the high end. Good hitter that hit for power in AAA.

LaMonte Wade - Minnesota Twins OF - Pass. 24 years of age. Decent numbers but I see no upside.

Micker Adolfo - Chicago White Sox OF - Pass. Love the talent but has some elbow issues.

Mike Baumann - Baltimore Orioles P - Pass.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - Only 19 years old but I see no power potential at all. Pass.

Nicky Lopez - Kansas City Royals SS - Nice hitter but wont hit for much power. Pass for me but I would love to debate.

Riley Adams - Toronto Blue Jays C - Nice catching prospect but rather spend money on Varsho. I would not be mad at a prospector who bought a few.

Rogelio Armenteros - Houston Astros - 24 years of age. Pass but the numbers are insane. Too old for me but I understand if you would buy.

Russell Wilson - New York Yankees - No comment.

Shane Bieber - Cleveland Indians P - Nice bullpen arm but not a player I would buy.

Sheldon Neuse - Oakland Athletics 3B - Pass. K rate over 30%.

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - STRONG BUY - Line drive hitter.Scouts say he will not hit for game power. I am making the bet that he does. He is only 19 and is already an advanced hitter. 29 doubles, 4 triples and 2 home runs.

Trevor Oaks - Kansas City Royals P - Pass.

Trevor Stephan - New York Yankees P - Decent number but walks need to be cut down. Possibly a reliever. Pass.

William Contreras - Atlanta Braves C - Wow. Another catcher that I like. Brother of Wilson Contreras of the Cubs. Worth a buy but I am focused on Varsho.

Yasel Antuna - Washington Nationals 2B - 18 years of age. 14 doubles, 2 triples, and six home runs in 2018. The gamble will be the power potential. I think it is there and I will buy.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

The Most Important Arizona Fall League Players To Watch

Arizona Fall League rosters have been released and did not disappoint. The Fall League is a great time for teams to test the overall skills of a prospect. Positive performance is a great sign of future success in the Major Leagues. I have listed a few players below that I will be watching.

Peoria Javelinas

Keston Hiura - I am interested to see how well he hits and defends. AFL MVP is not impossible.

Cristian Pache - Keep a close eye on his extra base hits and home runs.

Buddy Reed - I am looking for an overall good performance. He continues to improve.

Scottsdale Scorpions

Sixto Sanchez - I am worried about Sixto's health. If he is healthy and performs well, he will be a top 15 prospect in 2019.

Ronnie Dawson - Watching for an improvement in the strikeout rate.

Suprise Saquaros

Khalil Lee - Watching for an improvement in the strikeout rate.

Bryan Reynolds - Nice prospect. A good performance will boost his stock.

Salt River Rafters

Daulton Varsho - A rare catching prospect that I love. He should play well. Still needs a Bowman Chrome auto.

Pavin Smith - Smith is the most important player to keep an eye on during this Fall League season. I will be monitoring a few things. The most important will be power numbers and batting average.

Mesa Solar Sox

Bobby Dalbec - The K rate has to come down.

Jahmai Jones - Trout needs help. Jones must have a good showing.

Josh Ockimey - Josh is under the radar. He won't be after if he performs well.

Glendale Desert Dogs 

Yu Chang - I love Cleveland hitters and will be looking for a good performance with a decrease in his K rate. 

Arizona Fall League Full Rosters

Saturday, August 4, 2018

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) - Good Hitters

In this edition of Stats Don't Lie, I wanted to see who were the best hitters this season. When I run this report, batting average is not really a factor. The goal is to looks for hitters with high walk rates, good strikeout rates and power potential. Check out the list below.



Name              2B              3B               HR          BB%          K%            ISO         BB/K
Royce Lewis 29 0 10 8.50% 15.10% 0.161 0.56
Isaac Paredes 20 2 13 10.10% 15.10% 0.185 0.67
Jeter Downs 22 2 11 9.60% 19.70% 0.154 0.49
Gavin Lux 23 7 12 10.40% 16.90% 0.199 0.61
Carter Kieboom 24 0 13 10.30% 19.60% 0.162 0.52
Jahmai Jones 14 7 9 12.80% 19.80% 0.141 0.64
Seth Beer 11 0 7 10.80% 15.40% 0.194 0.70
Daulton Varsho 10 4 9 9.60% 18.50% 0.196 0.52
Kyle Tucker 24 2 14 9.70% 19.20% 0.208 0.51
Ke'Bryan Hayes 27 6 6 10.90% 15.70% 0.167 0.69
Bryan Reynolds 15 1 5 12.10% 19.40% 0.152 0.63

















* Min of 175 Plate Appearances 












* Age range was 23 or younger

















Takeaways







Ke'Bryan Hayes - Still a bargain bin buy. Scouts are skeptical that he can develop power.







Issac Paredes, Daulton Varsho & Carter Kieboom - All need a Chrome auto. 









Jeter Downs - Still affordable and a strong buy.







Gavin Lux - Great bounceback season. 








Jahmai Jones - Still a strong buy for me. 








Seth Beer - I hope he is in 2018 Bowman Draft.








Sunday, July 22, 2018

Early 2018 Bowman Draft Prospects to Target

The release of 2018 Bowman Draft was just announced and while a full checklist will be released at a later date, I have already targeted a few players. Keep and eye on Jonathan India and Alec Bohm. Third base prospects who are selected high are safer than most players. Both are college bats so the path to the majors will be hopefully faster. It will be interesting to see how both perform in short season ball.

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Contact In Baseball Is Still King and Strikeouts Do Matter

If you are a reader of the site and have read my previous recommendations I am sure you have noticed a trend. Contact matters when I am searching for prospects to invest in. Yes I know we are still in the moneyball era and I am well aware that strikeouts don't matter. Trust me strikeouts do matter. Especially in the minors and playoff baseball. A number of prospects have inflated prices due to huge home run totals but strikeout in 30% of their at bats. If there are cases where I think a player can cut down on the strikeouts I will be sure to let the readers know. Keep following for more updates as the season goes on.

Could Cristian Pache's Bowman Auto Reach Ronald Acuna Prices?

When 2018 Bowman Baseball was released one of my favorite prospects in the product was Cristian Pache. I thought his prices would be reasonable after release but I was 100% wrong. His autographs were immediately on the high end. I think the main reason is because he made a few top 100 lists despite not being a lock to have power. The Braves have been working with him on his swing and he has five home runs on the year. Not to mention he is already an elite defender. It seems his card prices are only going to go up. In my previous article regarding Senzel I said it is OK to take risk. After review, I noticed a big difference between Senzel's situation and Pache's. The Reds rebuild seems to be taking longer than expected while the Braves are playing well and are loaded on the farm. Cristian Pache may be a year or two away but the time to buy is now if your budget allows.

Nick Senzel Out For The Season - Prospecting Advice

Today the Cincinnati Reds announced that Nick Senzel will be out for the year with a hand injury. The news is unfortunate as he was on fire the last ten games and a promotion to the Reds was imminent. I have said this multiple times on the blog that injuries are one of the few reasons investing in high end prospects is a big risk. Every year in baseball a high end prospect gets hurt and collectors feel the pain. Don't get me wrong its OK to take risk but sometimes the cost is not worth it. In Senzel's case he was one of the safest prospects in the minors far as talent is concerned but was high priced as soon as his auto came and had previously missed time. Due to the injury his prices could drop. It would be best practice to hold on to what you have unless you can make a profit.