Friday, May 29, 2020

A Review of My Past Bowman Baseball Recommendations (2015-16)

Here at Prospects for Cash I think its important to look back at previous recommendations to see where I went wrong and how to get better. Its important to hold myself accountable. A ton of other sites don't.

Hit Rate - 19 Hits/44 Total Recommendations = 43%

The goal is to be around 55% similar to most professional gamblers. 

2016 Bowman Chrome Draft

Alex Kirlloff - Minnesota Twins OF - Hit. I prefer to wait until they play past rookie ball.

Bo Bichette - Toronto Blue Jays SS - Hit. He's good.

Cavan Biggio - Toronto Blue Jays 2B - Hit. Auto's were dirt cheap upon release.

Justin Dunn - Seattle Mariners P - Miss. Tough one. Awesome talent but never really took off. Notice a trend with pitchers?

Pete Alonso - New York Mets 1B - Auto's were $10-$15 bucks upon release. Hit.

Taylor Trammell - San Diego Padres OF - Hit. One of my strongest recommendations.

Will Benson - Cleveland Indians OF - Hit. Still keeping an eye on him.

AJ Puk - Oakland Athletics P - Hit. Was really on fire before the elbow surgery. Did you sell at the right time?

Corey Ray - Milwaukee Brewers OF - Hit. Waited but never purchased an auto. A bust so far.

Bobby Dalbec - Boston Red Sox 3B - Another player I avoided. Too many K's. Hit

Delvin Perez - St Louis Cardinals SS - Hit. Because i did not buy him.

Gavin Lux - Los Angeles Dodgers 2B - Hit. Check my posts in 2017.

2016 Bowman Chrome

Domingo Leyba - Arizona Diamondbacks 2B- See Dustin Fowler.

Dustin Fowler - New York Yankees OF - A good player but never really took off. Miss.

Juan Soto - Washington Nationals OF - Hit. A beast. Rookie ball does not matter.

Oneil Cruz - Pittsburgh Pirates OF - Hit. Auto's were going for $5 bucks at this time. Now they are $40.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays OF - Hit. Nothing else really to say here. His auto was less than $100 bucks at this time.

Yadier Alvarez - Los Angeles Dodgers P - Miss.

Cornelius Randolph - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Miss. Only 22 but I thought he would be a better hitter.

Jahmai Jones - Los Angeles Angles 2B - Miss. I expected him to be in the majors already.

Eddy Martinez - Chicago Cubs OF - Miss.

2016 Bowman Baseball 

Tyler O'Neill - St Louis Cardinals OF - Miss. Bench player.

Jhailyn Ortiz - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Miss. Only 21 but has great power. Contact has not improved.

Juan Yepez - St Louis Cardinals 1B - Miss. 22 years old. Has power but never really produce like I expected.

Anderson Espinoza - San Diego Padres P - Miss. Has battled injuries.

2015 Bowman Draft

Carson Fulmer - Chicago White Sox P - Miss. Never got to the level I thought he would.

Dillon Tate - Baltimore Orioles P - Miss. See above.

Phil Bickford - Milwaukee Brewers P - Miss. Great talent but never put it all together.

Austin Riley - Atlanta Braves 3B - Hit. Great debut. Dropped off a bit but you could of made good money here.

Christin Stewart - Detroit Tigers OF - Miss. One of those cases where a nice prospect plays well but no one cares because the team sucks.

Trent Clark - San Diego Padres OF - Hit. I would say this is a hit but you really had to be patient and sell at the right time.

Ke'Bryan Hayes - Pittsburgh Pirates 3B - Hit. A top 100 prospect but still needs to hit for more power.

Other Recommendations 

Gary Sanchez - New York Yankees C - Nov 2015 - Hit. Was very hot when he was called up and remains a contributor.

Tyler Stephenson - Cincinnati Reds C - April 2016 - Miss. Has battled injuries and catchers take a while to develop.

Ronald Guzman - Texas Rangers 1B - May 2016 - Miss. A hit only prospect that did not take off as expected.

Tim Anderson - Chicago White Sox SS - May 2016 - Miss. This one is tough. He has played well but the price has not taken off.

Clint Frazier - New York Yankees OF - June 2016 - Miss. Loved the talent but is blocked in New York. If he stayed in Cleveland I think he would of been a star.

Alex Verdugo - Boston Red Sox OF - July 2016 - Hit. Prices have remained consistent and he is still in a big market.

Bradley Zimmer - Cleveland Indians OF - July 2016 - Miss. Loved his athletic ability but did not pop as expected.

Lewis Brinson - Miami Marlins OF - July 2016 - Miss. Loved the talent and if you sold at the right time you made money .

Travis Demeritte - Detroit Tigers OF - July 2016 - Miss. Too many strikeouts.

Nick Plummer - St Louis Cardinals OF - July 2016 - Miss. Never developed.

Daz Cameron - Detroit Tigers - July 2016 - Miss. Too many strikeouts.

David Dahl - Colorado Rockies OF - Miss. Loved Dahl as a prospect but he battled injuries and Colorado prospects never sell. I was really high on him.

Takeaways

1. Pitchers don't sell unless they are an ace and continue to be the biggest investment risk.
2. Prospecting is harder than you think.
3. Patience is key.
4. Sometimes its good to sell a player while they are still in the minors.
5. A lot of players don't come close to making it.

Links to Original Prospect Review Posts 

2015 Bowman Draft Prospect Post 

2016 Bowman Baseball Prospect Post 

2016 Bowman Baseball Prospect Post Pt 2 

2016 Bowman Chrome Prospect Post 

2016 Bowman Draft Prospect Post 

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

2020 Bowman Baseball - Full Prospect Analysis

Hello all. I hope everyone is staying safe out there. Bowman 2020 is set to release and my initial thoughts are below. The checklist is pretty good this year. Overall I am impressed. This release was worth the wait. Links to Ebay have been provided. Please note older prospects were treated a little more harsh this time around due to baseball being postponed.

Aaron Ashby - Milwaukee Brewers P – The overall stats are not bad but I will pass.

Adam Hall - Baltimore Orioles SS – Not showing HR pop at the moment but his extra base hits are great. A buy for me if cheap.

Adam Hill - Milwaukee Brewers P – Pass. Older prospect.

Andy Pages - Los Angeles Dodgers CF – Buy. Only played in rookie ball but the power is serious. The strikeout rate needs to come down, but the Dodgers are great at player development.

Adley Rutschman - Baltimore Orioles – Second autograph. Pass.

Alvaro Seijas - St. Louis Cardinals P – Pass. Older prospect.

Aaron Shortridge - Pittsburgh Pirates P – Pass. Older prospect.     

Anthony Volpe - New York Yankees SS – Decent rookie ball numbers but I will wait to see how he develops. Seems like a defensive prospect with limited power.

Andrew Vaughn - Chicago White Sox 1B - Second autograph. Pass.

Ben Braymer - Washington Nationals P – Pass. Older prospect.

Bryce Ball - Atlanta Braves 1B – A little older but has some good power. I’m in. I wish he was younger but he can really mash.

Brennen Davis - Chicago Cubs OF – One of the stronger buys on the list. He will eventually be a top 100 prospect.

Brandon Howlett - Boston Red Sox 3B – 31% strikeout rate in A ball. He’s 20 so I am watching.

Bobby Witt Jr. - Kansas City Royals SS – Love him. Let’s see where the prices settle at.

Connor Cannon - San Francisco Giants 1B – Pass. Older prospect. Power is legit though.

Cooper Johnson - Detroit Tigers C – Pass. Older prospect.

Canaan Smith - New York Yankees OF – I have been a fan of Smith for a while. Good power and contact. Buy.

Chris Vallimont - Minnesota Twins P – Pass. Older prospect.

Diosbel Arias - Texas Rangers Utility – Pass. Older prospect.

Damon Jones - Philadelphia Phillies P – Pass. Older prospect.

Ezequiel Duran - New York Yankees 2B – A nice prospect that just needs to improve his contact. Great power numbers. A buy for me.

Everson Pereira - New York Yankees CF – Young prospect but is still developing. I like him.

Erik Rivera - Los Angeles Angels OF – Small sample size. Not much here. Will keep an eye on him.

Ford Proctor - Tampa Bay Rays Utility -Pass. Older prospect.

Glenallen Hill Jr. - Arizona Diamondbacks 2B – Only played in rookie ball. Young player that I will be watching.

Grant Little - San Diego Padres OF – Older prospect with not a ton of pop. Pass for me.

Gus Varland - Oakland Athletics P – Pass. Older prospect.

Hogan Harris - Oakland Athletics P – See above.

Jacob Amaya - Los Angeles Dodgers SS – I love the walk and strikeout rates. Buy if under $20.

James Beard - Chicago White Sox OF – Another younger prospect that has only played rookie ball. Need to see more.

Joey Cantillo - San Diego Padres P – A pitcher with some good K/9 rates! Buy if under $10.

Jarren Duran - Boston Red Sox OF – Pass. Older prospect.

Jasseel De La Cruz - Atlanta Braves P – Pass.

Jhon Diaz - Tampa Bay Rays CF – Could not find much on this kid. A July 2 signing that has not played. Need to come back to this one.

Jasson Dominguez - New York Yankees OF – I am going to write a separate post about Dominguez. Too much to say here.

Jerar Encarnacion - Miami Marlins OF – Not a bad player but just a little too old for me.

Joe Genord - New York Mets 1B – Pass. Older prospect.

J.J. Bleday - Miami Marlins – Second autograph. Pass.

Jeremy Pena - Houston Astros SS – I love the numbers. A little older so its tricky. I’m leaning towards pass.

Jackson Rutledge - Washington Nationals P – Not bad but does not move the needle for me. Pass.

Joe Ryan - Tampa Bay Rays P – Nice player but 23 years of age. Pass.

Lency Delgado - Chicago White Sox SS – Has a little upside but I will be watching. I need to see more.

Luis Patino - San Diego Padres P – One of the better arms in the minors. I am curious to see his card price. A buy based off the tools.

Leonel Valera - Los Angeles Dodgers SS – 100% watch for me. Can the Dodgers help him improve contact?

Micah Bello - Milwaukee Brewers OF – Hmm. Not ready to buy yet but I am watching.

Mario Feliciano - Milwaukee Brewers C – Pass for me.

Miguel Vargas - Los Angeles Dodgers 3B – Love the profile here and the power and plate discipline is there. Buy.

Omar Estevez - Los Angeles Dodgers 2B – Another talent that I like. I would be even higher if he was younger. Buy.

Oscar Gonzalez - Cleveland Indians OF – Love the talent. Great power potential. A buy for me but please note he is 22 years old.

Philip Clarke - Toronto Blue Jays C - Pass. 

Quin Cotton - Cincinnati Reds OF - Pass. I like the prospect but is 22 and only played in rookie ball. 

Ruben Cardenas - Tampa Bay Rays OF - Pass. 

Robert Puason - Oakland Athletics SS - Has not played yet. Watch. 

Sherten Apostel - Texas Rangers 3B – Not a bad player. Worth a buy if under $15.

Sam Huff - Texas Rangers C – He’s a little older but people love the power. It’s a pass for me though.
 
Stephen Paolini - Atlanta Braves OF – A lot of potential here. But I need to see more. I will be watching.

Tony Dibrell - New York Mets P – Pass. Older prospect.

Thomas Dillard - Milwaukee Brewers 1B – Pass.

Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers – Pass. Older prospect.

Vidal Brujan - Tampa Bay Rays 2B – His stats do not show a ton of power, but I love his contact and walk rates. Buy.

Xavier Edwards – Tampa Bay Rays SS – Great contact skills but not a ton of power but I expect his card to be hot. A pass for me but I get why people would be interested.

Zack Hess - Detroit Tigers P – Pass. Older prospect.

Monday, March 30, 2020

A Few Notes on MLB Prospect Miguel Amaya (Chicago Cubs, C)

The Cubs don't have much on the farm talent wise but one player to note is Miguel Amaya. He's a pretty good player and prices are affordable at the moment. Another positive is that the Cubs may need his help sooner than later. I am expecting a breakout season from Miguel. He has good power and can get on base at a decent clip. The walk and strikeout rates are very impressive despite the batting average.

Link to Stats via Fangraphs

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

A Few Notes on MLB Prospect Jordyn Adams (LA Angels, CF)

Hello readers. I know we are all bummed about the baseball season being delayed but I wanted to take some time to write about Jordyn Adams. Jordyn is another high risk, high reward prospect but has just started to really go all in on baseball. In his first full season he performed pretty well considering football was his primary sport in high school. It may take time and there may be some highs and lows as he develops in the system, but he is a gifted athlete and I expect him to improve. I would not be surprised if he shoots up prospect lists this year. Once again thanks for reading.

Monday, March 9, 2020

Bobby Witt Jr. MLB Scouting Report (Kansas City Royals, SS)

Age: 19 (June 14, 2000) 
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6'1/190
Position:SS
Team: Kansas City Royals
Drafted: Round 1, Pick 2 Overall, 2019 MLB Draft
Recent Pricing: Pending 2020 Bowman Release
Card: 2020 Bowman Baseball
Base Auto: Base Auto Raw TBD/9.5 Base Auto TBD

2019 Stats: .262. Avg/.317 OBP/.670 OPS

Scouting Report


The son of a former MLB player, Witt shows maturity and professionalism that cannot be ignored. His 6'1 frame generates raw power, the glove is exceptional and his running ability is plus. Witt has too many tools to ignore.

Conclusion: 

I expect this card to be on the high end but I may consider investing depending on where prices fall. What I love the most is his leadership ability and work ethic. I understand the concern with his swing and miss tendencies at the moment but I expect improvements as he matures and plays his way through the minors. A few scouts have noted concerns of his older age when being drafted but that is  not a concern for me.

Links to Bowman Autos on Ebay

Sunday, February 23, 2020

How to Use the Baseball America Prospect Handbook

One of my favorite books to read to help me make better buying choices is the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. It is one of the best books you can buy if you want to learn about prospects. I have listed a few ways you can use the book to your advantage below.

First Time Buyer of the Prospect Handbook

If you are a first time purchaser of the book I would get familiar with how Baseball America rates players and defines each tool. The book always gives a breakdown of what the 20-80 scale is and rates 30 players from each team. It has everything you need. 

Owners of Previous Prospect Handbooks

If you own books from the previous years use them to compare the scouting reports and tool grades to the new book. Is the player improving? Have any tool grades dropped or increased? What has the player worked on and is currently working on? Where is he ranked in the organization versus previous years? 
 
Buy the 2020 Baseball America Handbook via Ebay

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Jasson Dominguez MLB Scouting Report (New York Yankees, OF)

Age: 17 (February 7, 2003) 
Bats/Throws: Switch/R 
Height/Weight: 5'10/190
Position: OF
Team: New York Yankees
Drafted: Signed July 2, 2020 (Dominican Republic)
Recent Pricing: Pending 2020 Bowman Release
Card: 2020 Bowman Baseball
Base Auto: Base Auto Raw TBD/9.5 Base Auto TBD

2019 Stats: Did Not Play

Scouting Report

Jaason Dominguez has not made his pro debut yet but the industry is already buzzing about his makeup and tools. Scouts have already compared him to Mike Trout, Bo Jackson and other physically gifted players. The scouting grades are off the charts and the tools are loud. He has power from both sides and the speed to steal 30 bags a year. His debut will be one of the most anticipated events in the minors this year. I have never seen a prospect this young with these tools and the hype since Bryce Harper.


Conclusion

If you think Wander Franco's prices are insane just wait until the release of Bowman 2020 Baseball. The hype is there but for me I need to see him actually play. I expect him to have the most expensive card in baseball and crush rookie ball pitching. In my opinion retail boxes of Bowman Baseball are the play here. Hunt down as many non-auto cards as you can and hope you hit the lottery. I cannot recommend purchasing an auto for a player that will be most likely over $500 bucks who is 17 years old. My recommendation does not mean he will not work out as a prospect but more of a commentary on the hobby.  

Buy Jaason Dominguez Cards via Ebay

Review Jaason Dominguez's Stats via MILB




Sunday, February 2, 2020

2019 Bowman Draft Baseball - Feburary Pricing Trends Update

Listed below is an update on some of the pricing trends for 2019 Bowman Draft. Overall there has not been a ton of price movement. Its a good time to buy before the season starts. Please note I only reviewed base auto prices via Ebay. Thanks for reading.
 
Andre Lipcius - Detroit Tigers 2B/3B - Around $5-$10 bucks. No big changes.

Adley Rutschman - Baltimore Orioles C - Prices are up to $275.

Andrew Vaughn - Chicago White Sox 1B - Prices are high. Around $160 for base. I have seen as low as $125. 

Brett Baty - New York Mets 3B - No changes. Still around $75.

Brennan Malone - Arizona Diamondbacks P - Selling for around $10 bucks. Now a Pirate.

Corbin Carroll - Arizona Diamondbacks OF - Price is up to around $50.

Gunnar Henderson - Baltimore Orioles SS - Selling for around $15 bucks still but climbing slowly to $20. 

Keoni Cavaco - Minnesota Twins SS - Still selling for around $40.

Rece Hinds - Cincinnati Reds 3B - Selling for around $20. No bump in price yet.

Tyler Callihan - Cincinnati Reds OF - Selling for around $10-$20. No changes.

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Jo Adell MLB Scouting Report (Los Angeles Angels, OF)

Birthdate: 04/08/1999
Bats/Throws: R/R 
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Position: OF
Team: Los Angeles Angels  
Drafted: 2017 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 10 

Recent Pricing:
Card: 2017 Bowman Chrome Draft 
Base Auto: $700-$900 Base Auto 9.5: $800-$1000


2019 Stats: .289 AVG/.359 OBP/.834 OPS, 10 HR,  27 Doubles



Scouting Report:
The LA Angels have a history of not producing much talent from their farm system but over the past few years there have been improvements in this area. The Angels have focused on high upside prospects who are athletic. Jo Adell is a world class athlete with the tools and makeup to be the next big thing. His power is 70 grade and he has speed to easily steal double digit bases. There are some concerns about his contact skills as the strikeout rates are high but overall Adell is improving in this area. I expect to see Adell in the majors this year and benefit from the media coverage around Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. 

Conclusion: Mike Trout's help is on the way. I would focus on base non-autos and paper non-autos. His auto is short printed so the price may be too high for most. I think Adell is going to be a star. You can live with the strikeouts as the five tool ability is insane.

Buy Jo Adell's Cards via Ebay

Review Jo Adell's Stats via Fangraphs

Saturday, December 21, 2019

2016 Bowman Draft Baseball - An Overall Dissapointment

I took a moment over the past week to review some of my old recommendations. After reviewing 2016 Bowman Draft, I can honestly say this draft class was not good at all and could be impacting the market. With so many nonperforming prospects in this draft, the overall supply of the talent in the minors is now weaker and could be causing higher prices. Don't get me wrong there are some good players in this draft class (Lux, Alonso) but there is not much to look at overall. Most of these players should be close to the majors and have not developed as expected.