Saturday, May 12, 2018

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie)

A full month of the season has passed and sample sizes are starting to be large enough to run my first Stats Don't Lie report of the year. The main focus of this report is to find prospects who have undervalued Bowman Chrome autographs. When I run this report I am looking for hitters with good walk rates combined with manageable K rates. In addition, I am looking for average to above average isolated slugging percentage. The goal is to look for hitters who make contact and hit for decent power. For this report I have added a few players who don't fit the criteria but should be mentioned. Please note the season is still young so these numbers should be taken into account but pitchers will adjust accordingly.

Any notable numbers highlighted in red should be monitored and numbers highlighted in blue are positive signs of good performance.

Name Team              PA         BB%          K%            ISO
Stuart Fairchild Reds (A) 133 13.50% 23.30% 0.130
Ernie Clement Indians (A) 137 11.70% 9.50% 0.092
Hoy Jun Park Yankees (A+) 122 18.00% 18.90% 0.104
Jeter Downs Reds (A) 145 9.00% 22.10% 0.125
Dylan Carlson - - - 113 15.00% 17.70% 0.147
Juan Yepez - - - 123 8.10% 14.60% 0.155
Will Benson Indians (A) 125 20.00% 25.60% 0.237
Khalil Lee Royals (A+) 137 17.50% 25.50% 0.138
Luis Alexander Basabe White Sox (A+) 131 16.00% 26.00% 0.266
Demi Orimoloye Brewers (A) 125 8.00% 18.40% 0.155
Daulton Varsho Diamondbacks (A+) 122 10.70% 18.90% 0.179
Jalen Miller Giants (A+) 150 6.70% 16.00% 0.168
TJ Friedl Reds (A+) 148 16.20% 14.20% 0.108
Daniel Johnson Nationals (AA) 146 6.80% 21.20% 0.115
Peter Alonso Mets (AA) 138 14.50% 18.10% 0.295
Kacy Clemens - - - 140 20.00% 19.30% 0.324
Cavan Biggio Blue Jays (AA) 119 15.10% 26.10% 0.392
Matt Thaiss Angels (AA) 137 8.80% 21.20% 0.203
Cedric Mullins Orioles (AA) 140 5.70% 13.60% 0.214
Ryan Howard Giants (AA) 125 5.60% 11.20% 0.106
David Fletcher Angels (AAA) 152 7.20% 4.60% 0.252

My Analysis

Stuart Fairchild - Bargain bin buy that has showed flashes of power which is why the strikeout rate is a little high.
Ernie Clement - A prospect to keep an eye on. The signs of power are not there at the moment.

Hoy Jun Park - Park will not hit for much pop but I love the Yankees system right now. Worth a buy.

Jeter Downs - One of my favorite prospects but can the power improve?

Dylan Carlson - Carlson is a buy. His Bowman auto is still very affordable and I think he will continue to improve. He is turning the corner after a rough season last year.

Juan Yepez - Another Cardinal who I liked when he was signed by the Braves. I recommended that prospectors watch him and he has now been upgraded to a buy. Scouts worry that he cannot make consistent contact. This season is a big one for him to prove them wrong.

Will Benson & Khalil Lee - I like both prospects but they are also projects. High risk/reward but both take walks which is why I have taken a small position. The contact must improve and that is my main concern.

Luis Alexander Basabe - Impressive so far and still a bargain buy. The strikeout rate is high but I am watching closely. 

Demi Orimoloye - Demi does not have a Bowman auto but his early performance is showing he might be turning the corner. Impressive athlete.

Daulton Varsho - If Varsho had a Chrome auto, he would be a strong buy. 

Jalen Miller - Bargain bin buy who is repeating a level. I am not sure he can keep up the power surge though so don't go too crazy. 

TJ Friedl - Love him as a prospect but he may be only a fourth outfielder.

Daniel Johnson - Trending up and is currently a bargain bin buy. He has great ability but is still putting it together. 

Peter Alonso - I told you to buy him here. The window has closed.

Kacy Clemens - Still a bargain bin buy for me. Impressive start so far but is an older prospect. 

Cavan Biggio - I told you to buy him here. Power numbers are there but the K rate needs to come down. 

Matt Thaiss - One of my favorite prospects that is hitting for some decent power this year. Still a bargain.

Cedric Mullins - Like him but Baltimore is bad and I would only buy for bargain bin prices (No more than $5-10).

Ryan Howard & David Fletcher - Both are older bargain bin prospects who could possibly help their teams this year. Fletcher has been incredible so far this season.


  1. i have a cedric mullins /5 graded auto from this years bowman currently listed for sell at 3K obo keep at that price or what do you think?

    1. Its a tough one. You have such a rare card. I would probably keep it at that price. Keep in mind he is an older prospect too.

  2. Thinking of investing in Jeter Downs. I like his stats overall and Fangraphs has Jeter - RAWPOWER 45/50. Do you think Dodgers will help develop his power?

    1. I think the Dodgers could tap into it. I love their development system so much. Worth buying at least one.