Stats Don't Lie - June 2019 MLB Prospect Report

The month of June is coming to an end and here are some important stats to take note of. One thing I noticed is most of these prospects are selling for big money. It might be time to invest in non auto's if the prices are out of reach.

Wander Franco - 7% Strikeout Rate - He's number one for a reason.

Jo Adell - 1.046 OPS - Only 100 or so plate appearances but he has insane talent.

Jeter Downs - 0.210 ISO - Underrated prospect in the Dodgers system. Also still affordable.

Mickey Moniak - 31 XBH - He's only 21 and is hitting for more power. Don't give up on him yet.

Conner Capel - 0.189 ISO - Conner was drafted by the Indians but is now with the Cardinals. He is showing some power and sells for around $10.

XBH - Extra Base Hits
ISO - Isolated Power
OPS - On-Base Plus Slugging

Los Angeles Angels OF Jordyn Adams - MLB Prospect Breakdown

One prospect on my radar and selling for a good price is Jordyn Adams. As of the writing of this article, I have seen prices as low as $20 for a base autograph. My guess is this is due to his slow start. In my opinion, I would not worry about the numbers right now. Investing in his Bowman Chrome auto will be a long term hold. Two sport athletes out of high school take time to adjust to pro ball. He is walking 10.6% of the time and his K rate is around 26.7%. The kid is talented with upside.

Stats's Don't Lie - May 2019 MLB Prospect Report

Two months of the season is almost complete and I think its a good opportunity to look at some of the numbers. Who is performing at an elite level? Who's not? Check out some of the numbers below. Please note these numbers were recorded through the games played as of May 19th and were taken from Fangraphs.

Hitters

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - 0.197 ISO - One of my favorite hitters. The question is can he hit more home runs.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 12.20% K rate. He also has 16 extra base hits but is repeating a level so this is not a big surprise.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks - 13.50% walk rate. Smith already has 4 home runs on the year. Maybe he is tapping into his power finally. I also love the on base percentage (.333) despite the batting average.

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 21 extra base hits. He is finally getting it going.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - 0.186 ISO. Nick has 14 doubles and 3 triples but I am not sure if that is sustainable but his auto sells for a bargain.

Pitchers

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers - 0.89 BB/9 and 2.39 FIP. Casey is the real deal.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals - 8.86 K/9. Not a bad start and still an affordable buy.

Grayson Rodriguez - Baltimore Orioles - 13.65 K/9. His cards are heating up but you may still find bargains at the card shows.

Hitters I'm Worried About

Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics - 39.20% K rate. Not good.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals - 0.115 ISO. I would like to see more power. The walk rate is good so I am not too worried.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angles - 29.90% K rate. The swing and miss issues have to improve.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets  - 1 Home Run. He is only 18 but I wonder if he can develop power in the future. Still early.

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) - Good Hitters

In this edition of Stats Don't Lie, I wanted to see who were the best hitters this season. When I run this report, batting average is not really a factor. The goal is to looks for hitters with high walk rates, good strikeout rates and power potential. Check out the list below.

Name              2B              3B               HR          BB%          K%            ISO         BB/K Royce Lewis 29 0 10 8.50% 15.10% 0.161 0.56 Isaac Paredes 20 2 13 10.10% 15.10% 0.185 0.67 Jeter Downs 22 2 11 9.60% 19.70% 0.154 0.49 Gavin Lux 23 7 12 10.40% 16.90% 0.199 0.61 Carter Kieboom 24 0 13 10.30% 19.60% 0.162 0.52 Jahmai Jones 14 7 9 12.80% 19.80% 0.141 0.64 Seth Beer 11 0 7 10.80% 15.40% 0.194 0.70 Daulton Varsho 10 4 9 9.60% 18.50% 0.196 0.52 Kyle Tucker 24 2 14 9.70% 19.20% 0.208 0.51 Ke'Bryan Hayes 27 6 6 10.90% 15.70% 0.167 0.69 Bryan Reynolds 15 1 5 12.10% 19.40% 0.152 0.63

* Min of 175 Plate Appearances

* Age range was 23 or younger

Takeaways

Ke'Bryan Hayes - Still a bargain bin buy. Scouts are skeptical that he can develop power.

Issac Paredes, Daulton Varsho & Carter Kieboom - All need a Chrome auto.

Jeter Downs - Still affordable and a strong buy.

Gavin Lux - Great bounceback season.

Jahmai Jones - Still a strong buy for me.

Seth Beer - I hope he is in 2018 Bowman Draft.

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie)

A full month of the season has passed and sample sizes are starting to be large enough to run my first Stats Don't Lie report of the year. The main focus of this report is to find prospects who have undervalued Bowman Chrome autographs. When I run this report I am looking for hitters with good walk rates combined with manageable K rates. In addition, I am looking for average to above average isolated slugging percentage. The goal is to look for hitters who make contact and hit for decent power. For this report I have added a few players who don't fit the criteria but should be mentioned. Please note the season is still young so these numbers should be taken into account but pitchers will adjust accordingly.

Any notable numbers highlighted in red should be monitored and numbers highlighted in blue are positive signs of good performance.

Name Team              PA         BB%          K%            ISO Stuart Fairchild Reds (A) 133 13.50% 23.30% 0.130 Ernie Clement Indians (A) 137 11.70% 9.50% 0.092 Hoy Jun Park Yankees (A+) 122 18.00% 18.90% 0.104 Jeter Downs Reds (A) 145 9.00% 22.10% 0.125 Dylan Carlson - - - 113 15.00% 17.70% 0.147 Juan Yepez - - - 123 8.10% 14.60% 0.155 Will Benson Indians (A) 125 20.00% 25.60% 0.237 Khalil Lee Royals (A+) 137 17.50% 25.50% 0.138 Luis Alexander Basabe White Sox (A+) 131 16.00% 26.00% 0.266 Demi Orimoloye Brewers (A) 125 8.00% 18.40% 0.155 Daulton Varsho Diamondbacks (A+) 122 10.70% 18.90% 0.179 Jalen Miller Giants (A+) 150 6.70% 16.00% 0.168 TJ Friedl Reds (A+) 148 16.20% 14.20% 0.108 Daniel Johnson Nationals (AA) 146 6.80% 21.20% 0.115 Peter Alonso Mets (AA) 138 14.50% 18.10% 0.295 Kacy Clemens - - - 140 20.00% 19.30% 0.324 Cavan Biggio Blue Jays (AA) 119 15.10% 26.10% 0.392 Matt Thaiss Angels (AA) 137 8.80% 21.20% 0.203 Cedric Mullins Orioles (AA) 140 5.70% 13.60% 0.214 Ryan Howard Giants (AA) 125 5.60% 11.20% 0.106 David Fletcher Angels (AAA) 152 7.20% 4.60% 0.252
My Analysis
Stuart Fairchild - Bargain bin buy that has showed flashes of power which is why the strikeout rate is a little high.         Ernie Clement - A prospect to keep an eye on. The signs of power are not there at the moment. Hoy Jun Park - Park will not hit for much pop but I love the Yankees system right now. Worth a buy. Jeter Downs - One of my favorite prospects but can the power improve? Dylan Carlson - Carlson is a buy. His Bowman auto is still very affordable and I think he will continue to improve. He is turning the corner after a rough season last year. Juan Yepez - Another Cardinal who I liked when he was signed by the Braves. I recommended that prospectors watch him and he has now been upgraded to a buy. Scouts worry that he cannot make consistent contact. This season is a big one for him to prove them wrong. Will Benson & Khalil Lee - I like both prospects but they are also projects. High risk/reward but both take walks which is why I have taken a small position. The contact must improve and that is my main concern. Luis Alexander Basabe - Impressive so far and still a bargain buy. The strikeout rate is high but I am watching closely.  Demi Orimoloye - Demi does not have a Bowman auto but his early performance is showing he might be turning the corner. Impressive athlete. Daulton Varsho - If Varsho had a Chrome auto, he would be a strong buy.  Jalen Miller - Bargain bin buy who is repeating a level. I am not sure he can keep up the power surge though so don't go too crazy.  TJ Friedl - Love him as a prospect but he may be only a fourth outfielder. Daniel Johnson - Trending up and is currently a bargain bin buy. He has great ability but is still putting it together.  Peter Alonso - I told you to buy him here. The window has closed. Kacy Clemens - Still a bargain bin buy for me. Impressive start so far but is an older prospect.  Cavan Biggio - I told you to buy him here. Power numbers are there but the K rate needs to come down.  Matt Thaiss - One of my favorite prospects that is hitting for some decent power this year. Still a bargain. Cedric Mullins - Like him but Baltimore is bad and I would only buy for bargain bin prices (No more than $5-10). Ryan Howard & David Fletcher - Both are older bargain bin prospects who could possibly help their teams this year. Fletcher has been incredible so far this season.

Stats Don't Lie - 2017 Final Report Highlights

Stats are big part of my prospect analysis and this season I would like to share more numbers with my readers. All of the hitters listed below finished the season with a walk rate above 8%, a K rate below 20% and an .ISO above .140. The basis of the report shows hitters who have a great chance of success as they move up the ladder. Keep in mind this is only for the 2017 season and some players may have played across multiple levels. More names could of been added but I only wanted to focus on players with Bowman Chrome Auto's.

Houston Astros - Ronnie Dawson - STRONG bargain bin recommendation. He has to cut down on the K rate to make it to the Majors.

New York Yankees - Nick Solak  - A Yankee prospect that has been overshadowed. Decent pop and a good eye at the plate. Worth a buy.

Cincinnati Reds - Jeter Downs - Breakout prospect candidate. Very impressive first season in the Minors.

Toronto Blue Jays - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Stud

Tortonto Blue Jays - Bo Bichette - Stud

Cincinnati Reds - Nick Senzel - I think he will grow into power and hit 20-25 home runs annually.

Miami Marlins - Lewis Brinson - Will finally get his shot but can he stay healthy.

Boston Red Sox - Rafael Devers - Stud

Toronto Blue Jays - Reese McGuire - On the 40 man roster.

Baltimore Orioles - D.J. Stewart - Scouts are skeptical but his auto is nowhere to be found on EBay. Interesting.

Tampa Bay Rays - Jake Bauers - Nice prospect but not sure if I would buy. Prices are a little out of range for me.

Philadelphia Phillies - J.P. Crawford - Nice prospect with good defense but the time to buy was when he was struggling in AAA.

A Few Impressive Hitting Prospects

I took some time over the weekend to run some numbers and the results are interesting. Here are a few hitters who are having impressive seasons. All of the names have a minimum of 175 plate appearances, a strikeout rate of less than 20%, a walk rate (BB) greater than 8% and an ISO (Isolated Power) greater than .140. The report shows hitters who have plate discipline and power. The overall list is not long.

Bo Bichette (TOR) - 16.20% K rate - 8.40% BB - 0.212 ISO
Brandon Lowe (TB)  - 17.50% K rate - 12.80% BB - 0.218 ISO
Lewis Brinson (MIL) -  18.90% K rate - 10.10% BB - 0.225 ISO
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 17.60% K rate - 9.50% BB - 0.267 ISO
Rhys Hoskins (PHI)-  15.50% K rate - 13.50% BB - 0.280 ISO
Willie Calhoun (TEX) - 12.00% K rate - 8.30% BB - 0.278 ISO
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 20.00% K rate - 12.80% BB - 0..193 ISO
Ronald Guzman (TEX) -  15.50% K rate - 9.10% BB - 0.163 ISO - Buy
Carson Kelly (STL) -  14.30% K rate - 11.80% BB - 0.176 ISO - Needs a Chrome Auto
DJ Stewart (BAL) -  16.80% K rate - 11.10% BB - 0.174 ISO - Bargain Bin Buy
Jahmai Jones (LAA) -  16.70% K rate - 8.30% BB - 0.144 ISO - STRONG BUY
JP Crawford (PHI) - 17.00% K rate - 14.80% BB - 0.145 ISO - Buy if under $20. Hold if you already own.