Saturday, August 4, 2018

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) - Good Hitters

In this edition of Stats Don't Lie, I wanted to see who were the best hitters this season. When I run this report, batting average is not really a factor. The goal is to looks for hitters with high walk rates, good strikeout rates and power potential. Check out the list below.

Name              2B              3B               HR          BB%          K%            ISO         BB/K
Royce Lewis 29 0 10 8.50% 15.10% 0.161 0.56
Isaac Paredes 20 2 13 10.10% 15.10% 0.185 0.67
Jeter Downs 22 2 11 9.60% 19.70% 0.154 0.49
Gavin Lux 23 7 12 10.40% 16.90% 0.199 0.61
Carter Kieboom 24 0 13 10.30% 19.60% 0.162 0.52
Jahmai Jones 14 7 9 12.80% 19.80% 0.141 0.64
Seth Beer 11 0 7 10.80% 15.40% 0.194 0.70
Daulton Varsho 10 4 9 9.60% 18.50% 0.196 0.52
Kyle Tucker 24 2 14 9.70% 19.20% 0.208 0.51
Ke'Bryan Hayes 27 6 6 10.90% 15.70% 0.167 0.69
Bryan Reynolds 15 1 5 12.10% 19.40% 0.152 0.63

* Min of 175 Plate Appearances 

* Age range was 23 or younger


Ke'Bryan Hayes - Still a bargain bin buy. Scouts are skeptical that he can develop power.

Issac Paredes, Daulton Varsho & Carter Kieboom - All need a Chrome auto. 

Jeter Downs - Still affordable and a strong buy.

Gavin Lux - Great bounceback season. 

Jahmai Jones - Still a strong buy for me. 

Seth Beer - I hope he is in 2018 Bowman Draft.


  1. Side question- do you buy any wax of Draft or simply singles; do you just purchase base autos; do you purchase ungraded cards or only 9.5s?

  2. Thanks for reading and great question. I usually like to buy one box to rip for fun. I do by both. Singles and 9.5s if I really like the player.

  3. What are your thoughts on 2 prospects, Mark Vientos and Isbandel Isabel?

  4. Thanks for the comment and question.

    Isabel - K rate is way too high for me to buy.

    Vientos - Such a young player but worth the purchase. I like him but it would be a long term hold. He's only 18! He's still growing so the power potential is there.

  5. Due to the grand slam, would you recommend selling the david bote prospect auto or waiting until October?

    1. I would sell before the season is over. Prices drop in the winter. Plus I think the Cubs will win the division. Thanks for the comment Calbant.

  6. What is your email address?

  7. Do prospect autos increase in value if the player wins rookie of the year?

    1. Hello Calbant. Thanks for the comment. The auto will for sure increase in value.

  8. Say I collect the newest hot rookie auto cards, in what order (for long term potential) would you rate Bowman's offerings in a given year? Chrome, Best, Draft, etc... And where would Bowman 1st fit in?

    1. Sorry for the delay. The first bowman card (Chrome or Draft) is always the hottest, next it would most likely be the topps rookie card (Topps Update).I have noticed the Heritage rookie cards are becoming hot too. Bowmans Best is second tier. I would apply this strategy to prospects like Jo Addell or Wander Franco.

  9. Are print-runs for non-numbered Bowman Chrome rookie autos ever made public?

    1. No but I always check the blogs to see what is going on if a price looks odd.