Sunday, October 1, 2017

PFC's 2017 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Analysis - Full Review of Every Prospect Auto

Topps has released 2017 Bowman Chrome Baseball and the prospect autograph list is longer than expected. I have researched every prospect's stats and have provided thoughts and early recommendations. Cases are still being opened so prices may be a little inflated but should normalize in a few weeks. If you are ripping wax you most likely will sell immediately to make your profits so all suggestions may not apply. If you have any comments feel free to leave one on the site or message me on Twitter @Prospects4Cash. Thanks for reading!
Albert Abreu - New York Yankees, P - Nice prospect with upside. Keep an eye on him. Remember prices for Yankee prospects tend to be inflated. Buy.

Andrew Calica - Cleveland Indians, OF - Calica put up nice numbers this season. I am just not sure if he will hit for enough pop. I rate him as a Watch.

Austin Hays - Baltimore Orioles, OF - Austin Hays is a Strong Buy based off the stats but prices are close to $100. Hays is talented. 

Andy Ibanez - Texas Rangers, 2B - Older prospect that has repeated AA. Decent numbers but I don't see a big upside. Pass.

Anthony Kay - New York Mets, P - Kay had Tommy John surgery and will not pitch until 2018. Pass

Adrian Morejon - San Diego Padres, P - Very young prospect with a high amount of walks. I would wait to see if he can increase he K/9 rate and improve his command. I rate him as a Watch

Alfredo Rodriguez - Cincinnati Reds, SS - Alfredo is a great prospect but I'm not sure if the pop is there. He should start next season in AA but I am leaning towards a Pass rating.

Anderson Tejeda - Texas Rangers, SS - Another young prospect with a high strikeout rate. I would keep an eye on him. Watch.

Alberto Tirado - Philadelphia Phillies, P - Pass. K/9 rate is decent but the walks are too high for me. 

Bryson Brigman - Seattle Mariners, 2B - Pass. Not enough pop and the Seattle market struggles to sell.

Braden Bishop - Seattle Mariners, OF - See above.

Brian Mundell - Colorado Rockies, 1B - Pass. Nice stats but Rockies prospects do not sell unless they are a superstar.

Clint Frazier - New York Yankees, OF - Pass. The first auto is always the best one.

Chris Paddack - San Diego Padres, P - Pass. Tommy John.

Cole Stobbe - Philadelphia Phillies, 3B - Pass. Strikeout rate is too high for me.

Chih-Wei Hu - Tampa Bay Rays, P - Pass. Not enough strikeouts for me to invest. Save your money and wait for McKay.

David Fletcher - Los Angeles Angels, 2B - Pass. Not enough power for me.

Daniel Gossett - Oakland Athletics, P - Pass. Need to see more K's.

Dawel Lugo - Arizona Diamondbacks, 3B - Strong Buy. Great power numbers with a respectable strikeout rate. 

Dinelson Lamet - San Diego Padres, P - Pass. 25yr old prospect already in the majors.

Felix Jorge - Minnesota Twins, P - Pass. Seems to be a reliever vs starter.

Francisco Mejia - Cleveland Indians, C - Pass. See Clint Frazier.

Gage Hinsz - Pittsburgh Pirates, P - Pass. Not enough K's and his FIP is too high.

Griffin Jax - Minnesota Twins, P - Watch. Sample size is too small.

Grayson Long - Los Angeles Angels, P - Watch. Long put up some nice numbers in 2017.

Heath Quinn - San Francisco Giants, OF - Watch. I want to see his K rate come down. He seems to swing for the fences.

Isaiah White - Cincinnati Reds, OF- Pass. Long term project.

Jose Azocar - Detroit Tigers, OF - Pass. Not enough pop.

Jazz Chisholm - Arizona Diamondbacks, SS - Young prospect that is a project but shows flashes of power. I rate Jazz as a Buy.

Jon Duplantier - Arizona Diamondbacks, P - Pass. Long injury history and may be moved to the pen.

Jameson Fisher - Chicago White Sox, OF - Jameson is a good prospect but I would like to see the K rate drop a little. I rate Fisher as a Watch. He seems to have decent power potential.

Jorge Ona - San Diego Padres, OF - Buy if under $25. 20 year old prospect with a 8.6% walk rate and a 25% K rate. The power numbers are there.

Jesus Sanchez - Tampa Bay Rays, OF - Strong Buy. Jesus hit 15 home runs and his extra base hits are at the levels I want to see (13 doubles/7 Triples). The K rate is also a plus (17.8%).

Josh Sborz - Los Angeles Dodgers, P - Pass. Not enough K's. Too many walks.

Jose Trevino - Texas Rangers, C - Pass. I like the stats but he's a little too old in my opinion.

Keegan Akin - Baltimore Orioles, P - Watch. Let's see if he can cut down on the walks. Most likely a 4/5 starter.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals, OF - Strong Buy. The strikeouts are high but Lee is only 19 years old and is a long term project.

Luis Arraez - Minnesota Twins, 2B - Pass. No pop.

Lazarito Armenteros - Oakland Athletics, OF - Buy. Young prospect but seems to have good pop and hit for a decent average.

Luis Alexander Basabe - Chicago White Sox, OF- Watch. I want to see improvement before purchasing. Auto's are under $5.

Lewis Brinson - Milwaukee Brewers, OF - Pass. See Clint Frazier. 

Logan Ice - Cleveland Indians, C - Pass. Stats are nice but he is blocked. Buy if he is traded.

Leody Taveras - Texas Rangers, OF - Pass. See Clint Frazier. 

Miguel Gomez - San Francisco Giants, 2B - Older prospect that had a cup of coffee in the majors. I will Pass.

Michael Kopech - Chicago White Sox, P - Pass. See Clint Frazier.

Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates, P - Strong Buy. Pirates have another potential stud. Try to buy if under $20. Injuries have kept him low on prospect lists.

Magneuris Sierra - St. Louis Cardinals, OF - Pass. Speedster with good defense.

Max Schrock - Oakland Athletics, 2B - I rate as a Buy. Auto's are low but he seems to be a good hitter with 20HR potential.

Meibrys Viloria - Kansas City Royals, C - Pass. Long term project with power. I usually do not buy catchers due how long it takes to develop them.

Mitchell White - Los Angeles Dodgers, P - Strong Buy. Mitchell's ground ball rate is high and the K rate is also where it needs to be. Injuries have kept him off lists.

Nick Banks - Washington Nationals, OF - Scouts seem to doubt Nick but the extra base hits are there and the strikeout rate is not bad. Buy.

Ofelky Peralta - Baltimore Orioles, P - Pass. Walk rate is high. Seems to have command issues.

Ryan Howard - San Francisco Giants, SS - Bargain Bin Buy. Another prospect scouts are not talking about but the stats say otherwise.

Ryan O'Hearn - Kansas City Royals, 1B - Pass. Older prospect with a high K rate.

Steven Duggar - San Francisco Giants, OF - Pass. Injury history with no pop.

Starling Heredia - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Strong Buy. Only 18 years old and has power potential. He has some swing and miss but at his age there is plenty of time. I trust the organization.

Sixto Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies, P - Strong Buy. Talented arm and his command is above average.

Trevor Clifton - Chicago Cubs, P - Pass. Command is not there and could move to bullpen.

Torii Hunter Jr. - Los Angeles Angels, OF - Late start due to his college football career but its obvious that rookie ball was too easy. I want to see if he can develop some power. Watch for now but be ready to Buy immediately if power numbers spike. He needs to be tested in Advanced A or AA.

Tomas Nido - New York Mets, C - Pass. Love the stats but I think he is a backup.

Vladimir Gutierrez - Cincinnati Reds, P - Watch. Need to see more K's per 9.

Wander Javier - Minnesota Twins, SS - Watch. Younger prospect with upside but the prices seem to be a little too high for a prospect that you hope develops power.

Yusniel Diaz - Los Angeles Dodgers, OF - Diaz is probably the hottest prospect in this product and deserves a BUY rating. He repeated A+ ball this year but did not tear it up as people expected. The stats were exactly the same. I would wait until prices settle to buy. He is still working on his swing and youth is on his side. If a base auto drops to $20, buy immediately. Prices are way too high. Diaz's case is a perfect storm of stats showing the real picture vs market demand (Los Angeles) and top prospect lists creating price spikes.

4 comments:

  1. Now that prices are slowly being established (still real early), can you give an update to your rankings based on potential investment? Id love to hear what you think buy-in price should be for everyone.. For example, I bought 2 Lazarito's for $25 each and am pretty excited at that price. I'd buy more at that price

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  2. Thanks for your comment. Updates will be provided in another week or two but if you need advice on a specific player, I can provide. Any Lazarito Auto under $30 is a good price.

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  3. You have a remarkable number of Buys/Strong Buys (16 by my count). Are these hypothetical or are you actually acting on your views by creating decently sized investment positions in each? Perhaps I'm just a lot more stringent and specific upon my analysis, but this just seems sloppy to me.

    If Austin Hays is a "Strong Buy" at $100, what is Eloy at $110? A "SLAM DUNK NO BRAINER BUY BUY BUY?" Come on.

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    1. Hello.I have positions in each player named. I am not sure how you would define a decently size investment though. You may look at a player and/or card price different than me. In regards to Austin Hays I think he is a good prospect but a purchase would all depend on your budget. Thanks for the comment and your concerns will be addressed in my next post as prices normalized. The goal of this post was to help readers ID the correct prospects. Adjustments will be made when Bowman Draft is released.

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