Why I Invested In Nolan Gorman (St. Louis Cardinals, 2B/3B)

Over the past few years I have been watching Nolan Gorman closely. The main reason I stayed away is because I was waiting for an adjustment in his swing that would cut down on the strikeouts. This season that has occurred. You may think my change is a reaction to the AAA numbers but its not. AAA's talent level this year is not where it was pre realignment and covid issues have cut into the talent pool. Nolan's AA numbers is where the real data is. Even though his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) was high, I was more impressed that he cut down the strikeouts to around 25%. In addition, his prices did not spike as much as I thought they would until the last few weeks. 

Nolan Gorman will participate in the 2021 Arizona Fall League and when the 2022 season starts he will be 22 years old. If he keeps it up we should see him in the majors next year. I trust the St. Louis Cardinals and how they develop their prospects. My investment is a bet that his success will continue and I could not pass up the prices I saw compared to other top prospects. 

2021 Bowman Chrome Baseball - Full Prospect Analysis

Hello Readers. 2021 Bowman Chrome is now out and overall they have produced a solid checklist. Although there are a ton of names I think there is some value here. I organized the names by teams for break purposes. I just cannot recommend any pitchers this year. The upside is just not there in my opinion. A lot of these players are young so you might want to wait for more plate appearances before purchasing. Most of the hitters I passed on were too old for my liking or had no power potential. 

Rays, Padres, Cubs, Brewers are my favorite teams for breaks. 

Carlos Colmenarez - SS (Rays) - A top international signing w power and speed. Stud.

Tanner Murray - SS/3B (Rays) - Pass. 

Pedro Martinez - SS/2B/3B (Rays) - Pass.

Kevin Made - SS (Cubs) – Needs to walk more but hits a ton of doubles. More of a watch but I get it if you buy in now.

Ethan Hearn - C (Cubs) – Pass. 

Koen Moreno - RHP (Cubs) - Pass.

Cristian Hernandez - SS (Cubs) – Another stud. Will be highly sought after.

Christopher Morel - 3B/OF (Cubs) – High K rate but I love the power. I am willing to take a chance. 

Rafael Morel - SS (Cubs) – A player that I will watch. 

Yohendrick Pinango - OF (Cubs) - Pass. No pop.

Pedro Leon - SS/OF (Astros) – A little older for my taste but the talent is legit.

J.C. Correa - SS/3B (Astros) - Nice player but 22 and that may be too old for some people unless you are flipping.

Reginald Preciado - 3B/SS (Padres) – On the Cubs. Solid player. Good talent.

Victor Acosta - SS (Padres) - Decent prospect with room to improve. Has a little pop.

Eguy Rosario - 2B/SS/3B (Padres) – Awesome talent with a ton of tools.

Jordy Barley - SS (Padres) – On the Nationals but a watch. 

Jagger Haynes - LHP (Padres) - Pass.

Adam Kerner - C/OF (Padres) – Pass.

Liover Peguero - SS (Pirates) – Good pop and hit tool.

Shalin Polanco - OF (Pirates) – Wait and see. Very young. 

Po-Yu Chen - RHP (Pirates) – Pass.

Santiago Florez - RHP (Pirates) - Pass.

Alexander Mojica - 3B/1B/DH (Pirates) - High number of strikeouts but I love the power.

Jose Butto - RHP (Mets) – Pass.

Anthony Walters - 2B/SS (Mets) – Pass. Too old.

Luis Rodriguez - OF (Dodgers) - I like the player but the strikeout numbers need to improve. 

Wilman Diaz - SS (Dodgers) – Ton of potential here but I need to see more.

Carson Taylor - C (Dodgers) - Pass. 

Cristian Santana - SS (Tigers) – Solid player. Bat is nice. 

Jeferson Quero - C (Brewers) – Catcher with some pop. Might take time but he can hit.

Eduardo Garcia - SS (Brewers) – Pass. Too many strikeouts.

Jesus Parra - 3B/2B (Brewers) – Low amount of plate appearances so I am watching. 

Pablo Abreu - OF (Brewers) - Watch has not played yet. 

Carlos Rodriguez - OF (Brewers) – Pass.

Eduarqui Fernandez - OF (Brewers) - Pass. Strikeouts over 30%. 

Luis Medina - OF (Brewers) – Very young with upside. Watch.

Misael Urbina - OF (Twins) - Need to see more. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez - OF (Twins) - Ton of upside but a wait and see. 

Gilberto Celestino - OF (Twins) – Pass.

Malfrin Sosa - OF (Twins) - Watch. Not enough plate appearances. 

Gabriel Maciel - OF (Twins) - Pass. No pop. 

Pedro Pineda - OF (Athletics) – Not a ton of plate appearances so its a watch for me. 

Jordan Diaz - 3B/1B (Athletics) - 21 years old but all he needs to do is walk more. I am in. Short window to show me something or I move on because of the age.

Michael Guldberg - OF (Athletics) - Pass. Too old.

Ezequiel Tovar - SS (Rockies) – Low strikeout rates but its a pass for me.

Helcris Olivares - LHP (Rockies) - Pass.

Julio Carreras - SS/3B (Rockies) - Pass.

Arol Vera - SS (Angels) – No home runs but the extra base hits show promise. Its a bet that he can tap into the power. Angels are know to overhaul swings. 

Trent Deveaux - SS (Angels) – Pass. No pop.

Jose Bonilla - SS/3B (Angels) – Pass for me for now but will monitor.

George Feliz - OF (Mariners) - Solid prospect. 

Milkar Perez - 3B (Mariners) – Hit over power but a lot to like here.

Tyler Keenan - 3B/1B (Mariners) - Pass. K Rate over 30%.

Juan Then - RHP (Mariners) – Pass.

Taylor Dollard - RHP (Mariners) - Pass.

Starlin Aguilar - 1B/3B (Mariners) – Need to see more. Very young.

Matt Scheffler - C (Mariners) – Pass. 

Sean Roby - 3B (Giants) – Pass. Too old. 

Rayner Santana - C (Giants) – Pass. 

Gregory Santos - RHP (Giants) - Pass.

Rikelvin de Castro - SS (Blue Jays) – Ton of upside if he gets going look out.

Nick Frasso - RHP (Blue Jays) - Pass.

Yiddi Cappe - SS (Marlins) – Love the talent and hope he continues to develop.

J.D. Orr - OF (Marlins) – Pass. No pop. 

Kyle Hurt - RHP (Marlins) - Pass.

Miguel Bleis - OF (Red Sox) – Wait and see. Very young.

Chih-Jung Liu - RHP (Red Sox) – Pass.

Aldo Ramirez - RHP (Red Sox) - Pass.

Josh Winckowski - RHP (Red Sox) - Pass.

Malvin Valdez - OF (Reds) – Watch. Has not play yet. 

Luis Mieses - OF (White Sox) – 21 years of age. Love the numbers and hope his rise is fast.

Bryan Ramos - 2B/3B (White Sox) - Love the prospect and the numbers produced so far. 

Gabriel Rodriguez - 3B (Indians) – Pass. High number of strikeouts with no pop.

Jose Baez - 3B/SS/2B (Indians) - Watch. Has not played. 

Tyler Gentry - OF (Royals) – Pass. Too old for me. 

Kale Emhoff - C (Royals) - Pass.

Tucker Bradley - OF (Royals) - Pass. Too old.

Osleivis Basabe - SS (Rangers) – On the Rays now. Pass. No pop. 

David Garcia - C (Rangers) – Pass.

Elijah Dunham - 1B/OF (Yankees) - Pass. Too old. 

Alexander Vizcaino - RHP (Yankees) - Pass.

Baron Radcliff - 1B (Phillies) - Too old and too many strikeouts.

Angel Rondon - RHP (Cardinals) - Pass.

Malcom Nunez - 1B/3B (Cardinals) – Love the prospect and I trust the Cardinals to develop him.

Armando Cruz - SS (Nationals) - Pass. No pop.

Viandel Pena - SS (Nationals) – Pass. No pop.

Justin Martinez - RHP (Diamondbacks) - Pass.

Franyel Baez - OF (Diamondbacks) - Watch. Has not played yet.

My Thoughts on the Fanatics Sports Card Takeover

In one of the biggest deals in sports card history, Fanatics has reached an agreement with the MLB, NFL, and NBA player's associations to distribute all their cards starting around 2025. Its an interesting deal to say the least. I watch a ton of CNBC and always noticed that Fanatics was raising a ton of money every funding round. No one saw something like this coming but maybe we should have. Cards have exploded in sales and when big time money sees an opportunity to get a piece of the pie they move in. I want to take this post to follow the money and suggest why this happened and what will happen next. 

Why Do I Think This Happened? 

Since the pandemic started modern cards have been selling for millions of dollars (Giannis, Luka, Lebron). The players who signed these cards were not paid much up front in comparison to what the card sold for. Imagine being a prospect and signing for Bowman Draft for a few thousand bucks and your card sells for millions a decade later if not sooner. Not sure if I would be happy about that. I think the players want their cut on the front end. The big part that no one seems to mention is that each league will have an equity stake in the company. That is why this is happening. It all came down to getting more money. 

Predictions 

1. Fanatics will file to go Public very soon. Might not be a bad buy as they hold the license to the three most popular sports in the US. (Not Investment Advice) 

2. Fanatics will buy Topps and Panini. Right now I would say they would be better off buying Topps and creating their own brands for NFL and NBA cards.

3. Distribution will forever change. Everything will go through Fanatics. They run the show. Group breakers may run into issues. 

4. I could see a scenario where auto's of certain players never make it into a hobby box. A high profile player's auto would automatically go to auction.

5. Fanatics teams up with PSA for grading. I could also see a team up with Goldin Auctions. Look out for more vertical integration like this. A one stop shop for all things cards. Fanatics does not want you going anywhere else to do business. Buying, selling and grading will all be done on their site or one of their partners.