A Review of My Past Bowman Baseball Recommendations (2017)

At Prospects for Cash I think its important to look back at previous recommendations to see where I went wrong and how to get better. Its important to hold myself accountable. A ton of other sites don't.

Hit Rate - 15 Hits/41 Total Recommendations = 36.59%

The goal is to be around 55% similar to most professional gamblers.

Bargain Bin - A Bowman auto card priced below $10. 

2017 Bowman Draft

Zac Lowther - Baltimore Orioles P - Zac can pitch but no one cared so this is a miss. Keep in mind this is a miss on the price but not on the talent. Tough one. 

MacKenzie Gore - San Diego Padres P - Hit. 

Adam Haseley - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Hit. Money could be made when he was in the minors.

Brian Miller - Miami Marlins OF - No one cared. Miss.

Bubba Thompson - Texas Rangers OF- I would say hit but its close. Prices did spike upon release but if you have him now I would be worried. The contact numbers have not gotten better.

Gavin Sheets - Chicago White Sox 1B - Good stats but now is 24. Bargain bin miss.

Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox 3B - Miss. Injury. 

Jeter Downs - Boston Red Sox SS - Hit. One of my bigger ones. 

Kacy Clemens - Toronto Blue Jays 1B - Bargain bin miss.

Kevin Smith - Toronto Blue Jays SS - Bargain bin miss.

Luis Gonzalez - Chicago White Sox OF - Bargain bin miss.

Tristen Lutz - Milwaukee Brewers OF - He has good power but too much swing and miss. The contact rates were always the risk here. Miss.

2017 Bowman Chrome

Austin Hays - Baltimore Orioles OF - Hit. You needed to flip this one quick. He came out hot on the market then his performance dropped. 

Dawel Lugo - Arizona Diamondbacks 3B - Bargain bin miss. 

Jazz Chisholm - Arizona Diamondbacks SS - Bargain bin hit. Sold for under $10 upon initial release and now selling for $20.

Jorge Ona - San Diego Padres, OF - Miss. Injury. 

Jesus Sanchez - Tampa Bay Rays OF - Hit. The kid can play. 

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals OF - One of my favorite prospects. But this one is a miss. 

Lazarito Armenteros - Oakland Athletics OF - Miss. Way too many strikeouts.

Mitch Keller - Pittsburgh Pirates P - Hit. Money was made here. Was hot in the minors. 

Max Schrock - St Louis Cardinals 2B - Bargain bin miss. 

Mitchell White - Los Angeles Dodgers P - Miss. Pitchers are tough. 

Nick Banks - Washington Nationals OF - Bargain bin miss. 

Ryan Howard - San Francisco Giants SS - Bargain bin miss. 

Starling Heredia - Los Angeles Dodgers OF - Miss.

Sixto Sanchez - Miami Marlins P - Hit. Injuries slowed him down a bit but money could of been made here.

Torii Hunter Jr. - Los Angeles Angels OF - Miss. Good start but has not taken off in the minors. 

Yusniel Diaz - Baltimore Orioles OF - Miss. Not a bad player but no one cares. 

2017 Bowman Baseball 

Triston McKenzie - Cleveland Indians P - Close but a miss. I think his frame is too small. 

Nick Senzel - Cincinnati Reds 3B - Hit. There were opportunities to make money here despite the injuries.

Eloy Jimenez - Chicago White Sox OF - Hit. Good power bat. 

Blake Rutherford  - Chicago White Sox OF - Miss. Has not improved so far. 

TJ Friedl - Cincinatti Reds OF - Miss. Talented player but never got to the high levels. 

Yu-Cheng Chang - Cleveland Indians SS - Miss. 24 years old. I was hoping the contact rate would improve. 

Other Recommendations 

Yoan Moncada - Chicago White Sox 3B - Hit. Has improved his contact rate but his card price is stable. 

Andrew Benintendi - Boston Red Sox LF - Hit. A strong market helps here. Good player. 

Jahmai Jones - Los Angeles Angels 2B - Hit. If you sold in 2017 this was a hit. He was on fire. Overall he has not lived up to expectations. 

Matt Thaiss - Los Angeles Angels 1B - Miss. Loved his power and contact but prices never took off. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays 1B/3B - Hit. 

Nick Gordon - Minnesota Twins SS - Miss. Loved Nick Gordon but he never could get going in the minors. 

Garrett Whitley - Tampa Bay Rays OF - Big miss. Injuries and poor performance. 

Takeaways

1. Going for high upside prospects can sometime backfire. 
2. A prospect can be good but if they do not have a following it does not matter. 
3. I missed on a ton of low cost (Bargain Bin) prospects. 

Lnks to Original Prospect Review Posts

2017 Bowman Chrome 

2017 Bowman Draft

2017 Bowman Baseball 

Oakland Athletics OF Austin Beck - Breakout Prospect Canidate

As we approach the start of the minor league season, I will begin to name some prospects I feel will have a breakout season. The first on the list is Austin Beck. Austin had a decent 2018 season but did not hit for much power. Scouts seem to have mixed feelings on his development so far. For me I think he has made positive strides since his ACL injury in high school. I have read in various reports that he has been working on adding more loft in his swing and has added strength during the off-season. In addition, he will also be in the hitter friendly CAL league. My prediction is that his in game power will start to show and he will rise up many lists. Hopefully Austin performs well enough to make it to top 100 lists around the all star break.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2B/SS Gavin Lux Trending Up

After a rough 2017, Gavin Lux seems to be figuring it out. I recommend him as a strong buy back in 2017. He has impressed with a 15% walk and strikeout rate and has already hit 10 doubles. The potential for more power is still there and I would not be surprised to see him continue his success A+ ball.

2 MLB Prospects Who Will Move Quickly In The Minors

Pavin Smith and Keston Hirua are two members of the 2017 Draft class who posses above average hitting skills. Most reports expect Keston to have above average power and Pavin Smith to eventually come into his power last. Prices are a little on the high end for both but the hitting skills are so good the potential for prices to explode this season are likely. I have provided a few additional thoughts below for each player.

Milwaukee Brewers 2B - Keston Hirua - Reports have stated that Keston's elbow is fully healed. Scouts worry about his defense but the bat is so good it will become a non factor. You may see him in the Majors this year and I expect him to move quickly. Milwaukee Brewers prospects usually do not sell but I think Keston is a special player. For a Brewer prospect, his cards are in high demand. The best time to buy is now.

Arizona Diamondbacks 1B - Pavin Smith - Similar to Keston, Smith has above average hitting ability and walked more than he struck out during the 2017 season. He is a lock to be the replacement for Paul Goldschimdt in 2019 and should move quickly. The main issue scouts have is the power potential. I am taking the gamble that he will develop power last 

Austin Beck is the Next Oakland A's Superstar

One of my favorite prospects in 2017 Bowman Chrome Draft is Austin Beck. Drafted 6th overall by the Oakland Athletics in the 2017 MLB Draft, Beck has some of the best overall tools in the draft class and is the true definition of a high risk prospect. His hit tool will take time to develop but if it does he will become a star. After reviewing pricing trends over the last few weeks, I believe his cards are currently overpriced and will cost you around $40 a base auto. In my opinion, the main reason is because he is a high draft pick and has been covered by major publications. If Beck was drafted in the second round prices would be half of what they are now. Overall, I am making a small investment in Beck if I can buy a base auto around $25. I expect dips in performance during the adjustment to professional baseball and will buy when others are selling low due to being impatient. Any purchases will be a long term hold but I strongly feel a big return will happen in the future.

2017 Bowman Draft Baseball - Full Prospect Breakdown and Analysis

After waiting for supply to increase and reviewing the stats, scouting reports and other useful information, I have completed my review of the 2017 Bowman Draft checklist. The overall checklist is very solid with a good mix of picks from the first few rounds of the draft. Please note most players in this product competed in rookie ball so the stats are useful but only a few important data points should be analyzed. It usually takes a month for prices to settle but I wanted to get this report out for everyone to review in preparation for the upcoming season. Bowman Draft is easily the best product because it is released in the off season and prices remain stable for an extended period. This report will be revisited during the season as player production increases.

The prospects listed below are all pitchers that I have rated as a "Watch" due to limited sample size. The most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement has allowed teams to sign players faster but the sample size is way too small to make any judgement or investments. Current prices on EBay reflect my assessment. Most of the pitchers listed below are available for low prices.

Blayne Enlow -Minnesota Twins P
Brendan Murphy - Milwaukee Brewers P
Caden Lemons - Milwaukee Brewers P

D.L. Hall - Baltimore Orioles P - I am watching DL very close. He seems to have some good stuff from what I have researched.

Corbin Martin - Houston Astros P  
Tanner Houck - Boston Red Sox P
David Peterson -  New York Mets P
Hans Crouse - Texas Rangers P
Kade McClure Chicago White Sox P
Cory Abbott - Chicago Cubs P

Kyle Wright - Atlanta Braves P- Another top pick to watch close and he may move fast.

Matt Tabor - Arizona Diamondbacks P
Charlie Barnes - Minnesota Twins P
Nate Pearson -Toronto Blue Jays P
Peter Solomon Houston Astros P
Shane Baz - Pittsburgh Pirates P
Sam Carlson - Seattle Mariners P
Seth Corry - San Francisco Giants P
Tommy Doyle - Colorado Rockies P
Will Gaddis - Colorado Rockies P
Lincoln Henzman - Chicago White Sox P
Colton Hock - Miami Marlins P

The prospects listed below have not played an inning of professional baseball and the only fair recommendation I can give is to watch closely when the season starts. Scouting reports only tell you so much. Base auto prices are under $10 so if you feel strong about a player the risk is minimal.


Alex Faedo- Detroit Tigers P
Clarke Schmidt - New York Yankees P
Griffin Canning - Los Angels Angeles P
Joe Perez - Houston Astros 3B
Trevor Rogers - Miami Marlins P
Morgan Cooper - Los Angeles Dodgers P

I have all rated the hitters listed below as a close watch. It is possible that upgrades to buy or strong buy could occur but for right now the numbers are not the best. High strikeout rates, lack of power are the main negative statistics. I want to be fair and not rate as a pass as most of these players have just been drafted.
     
Quinn Brodey - New York Mets OF
Riley Mahan - Miami Marlins 2B
Blake Hunt - San Diego Padres C
Zach Kirtley - St. Louis Cardinals 2B
Taylor Walls - Tampa Bay Rays SS
MJ Melendez - Kansas City Royals C
Luis Campusano - San Diego Padres C
J.J. Matijevic - Houston Astros OF
Joey Morgan - Detroit Tigers C
Hagen Danner -Toronto Blue Jays C
Christopher Seise -Texas Rangers SS
Connor Wong - Los Angeles Dodgers C
Dylan Busby - Pittsburgh Pirates 3B
Drew Waters - Atlanta Braves OF
Ernie Clement - Cleveland Indians 2B
Cash Case - Cincinnati Reds SS
Cole Brannen - Boston Red Sox OF
Brett Netzer - Boston Red Sox 2B
Brent Rooker -  Minnesota Twins OF
Jacob Pearson - Los Angeles Angels OF
Kevin Merrell - Oakland Athletics SS
Logan Warmoth - Toronto Blue Jays SS
Quentin Holmes - Cleveland Indians OF
Drew Ellis - Arizona Diamondbacks 3B 
 
Recommendations for the other prospects on the checklist are listed below.

Pitchers

Zac Lowther - Baltimore Orioles P - Over 50 innings pitched in rookie ball and the K/9 rate is impressive. On top of that the Auto can be purchased for a bargain bin price. Strong Buy.

MacKenzie Gore - San Diego Padres P - Potential stud that I would purchase if prices are around $15-20.

Hitters


Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics OF - I may have to do a separate write up on Beck. He is my favorite player in this product. Austin has battled various injuries and struggled in pro ball. His stats started to improve later in the season and he has not played with wood bats much. I rate him as a very cautious watch.

Adam Haseley - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Buy. Solid player and Auto's are less than $20.


Brendan McKay- Tampa Bay Rays 1B/P - Buy if you have the budget but prices are way too high for my taste.

Brian Miller - Miami Marlins OF - Bargain bin buy. Older prospect and the power seems to be minimal but I love the K and walk rate.

Bubba Thompson - Texas Rangers OF - Strong buy if prices are under $20. I would pay no more than $25. Thompson is an athlete with pop and speed.

Evan White - Seattle Mariners 1B - White is a watch but could easily turn into a strong buy. Only 55 plate appearances but I like the talent.

Gavin Sheets - Chicago White Sox 1B - A 1B only prospect with nice power. Bargain Bin Buy. Base autographs are around $5.

Heliot Ramos - San Francisco Giants OF - Like the prospect buy only buy if you have the budget. Prices are way too high.

Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels OF - It seems that Adell's Auto is in short supply because the prices are over $300 for a raw base autograph. Love the player but you are better off buying an Acuna or Vlad auto for that price.

Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox 3B - Nice prospect. Nothing really blows me away but if the Auto price is around $15 I would buy. I would not pay more than that though.

Jeter Downs - Cincinnati Reds SS - Strong buy. The Reds seem to have a formula of drafting athletic guys that they can develop. Jeter has an impressive K rate to go with 6 home runs. I could see this kid making a jump like Taylor Trammell.  

Kacy Clemens - Toronto Blue Jays 1B - When I saw Kacy's stats I got really excited. He is 23 years old and may move fast to the Majors. He is a Bargain Bin Buy as prices are around $5.

Keston Hiura - Milwaukee Brewers 2B - Watch. Keston could complete for a batting title in the future. He is that good and he also has some power. The issue I have is that he is still working out an elbow issue and prices are over $30. Brewers prospects are tricky so I keep my investments small.
   
Kevin Smith - Toronto Blue Jays SS - Bargain bin buy. The power numbers are insane for this kid but the strikeout rate is a little high. Multiple scouting reports say his power is ahead of his hitting but for the low prices (Under $5) why not.

Luis Gonzalez - Chicago White Sox OF - Another older prospect that may move fast but the power numbers are decent. A bargain bin buy for sure.

Mark Vientos - New York Mets 3B - A very young player that held his own in rookie ball. I would only buy if around $10. He will be a long term project.

Nick Pratto - Kansas City Royals 1B - Watch. A young player with a strikeout rate too high (25%). A good example of a price being too high due to where a player was drafted and not the stats.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks 1B - Watch. Pavin can hit but I am just not sure if the power is there. Reminds of the same thing that kept me from investing in Nick Senzel.

     
Royce Lewis - Minnesota Twins OF - Nice player but way too high.
  
Ryan Vilade - Colorado Rockies 3B - I like this kid and his stats but Rockies prospects just don't do it for me. I will keep an eye on him.

Stuart Fairchild - Cincinnati Reds OF - Watch closely. Shows a little pop but I really like the plate discipline. Bargain Bin Buy for under $5 right now.


Tristen Lutz - Milwaukee Brewers OF - Strong buy. Lutz has power and the plate discipline you love. If prices stay around $15 I would be fine making that purchase. Brewers prospects are tricky so I keep my investments small.