Wednesday, December 20, 2017

2017 Bowman Draft Baseball - Full Prospect Breakdown and Analysis

After waiting for supply to increase and reviewing the stats, scouting reports and other useful information, I have completed my review of the 2017 Bowman Draft checklist. The overall checklist is very solid with a good mix of picks from the first few rounds of the draft. Please note most players in this product competed in rookie ball so the stats are useful but only a few important data points should be analyzed. It usually takes a month for prices to settle but I wanted to get this report out for everyone to review in preparation for the upcoming season. Bowman Draft is easily the best product because it is released in the off season and prices remain stable for an extended period. This report will be revisited during the season as player production increases.

The prospects listed below are all pitchers that I have rated as a "Watch" due to limited sample size. The most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement has allowed teams to sign players faster but the sample size is way too small to make any judgement or investments. Current prices on EBay reflect my assessment. Most of the pitchers listed below are available for low prices.

Blayne Enlow -Minnesota Twins P
Brendan Murphy - Milwaukee Brewers P
Caden Lemons - Milwaukee Brewers P

D.L. Hall - Baltimore Orioles P - I am watching DL very close. He seems to have some good stuff from what I have researched.

Corbin Martin - Houston Astros P  
Tanner Houck - Boston Red Sox P
David Peterson -  New York Mets P
Hans Crouse - Texas Rangers P
Kade McClure Chicago White Sox P
Cory Abbott - Chicago Cubs P

Kyle Wright - Atlanta Braves P- Another top pick to watch close and he may move fast.

Matt Tabor - Arizona Diamondbacks P
Charlie Barnes - Minnesota Twins P
Nate Pearson -Toronto Blue Jays P
Peter Solomon Houston Astros P
Shane Baz - Pittsburgh Pirates P
Sam Carlson - Seattle Mariners P
Seth Corry - San Francisco Giants P
Tommy Doyle - Colorado Rockies P
Will Gaddis - Colorado Rockies P
Lincoln Henzman - Chicago White Sox P
Colton Hock - Miami Marlins P

The prospects listed below have not played an inning of professional baseball and the only fair recommendation I can give is to watch closely when the season starts. Scouting reports only tell you so much. Base auto prices are under $10 so if you feel strong about a player the risk is minimal.


Alex Faedo- Detroit Tigers P
Clarke Schmidt - New York Yankees P
Griffin Canning - Los Angels Angeles P
Joe Perez - Houston Astros 3B
Trevor Rogers - Miami Marlins P
Morgan Cooper - Los Angeles Dodgers P

I have all rated the hitters listed below as a close watch. It is possible that upgrades to buy or strong buy could occur but for right now the numbers are not the best. High strikeout rates, lack of power are the main negative statistics. I want to be fair and not rate as a pass as most of these players have just been drafted.
     
Quinn Brodey - New York Mets OF
Riley Mahan - Miami Marlins 2B
Blake Hunt - San Diego Padres C
Zach Kirtley - St. Louis Cardinals 2B
Taylor Walls - Tampa Bay Rays SS
MJ Melendez - Kansas City Royals C
Luis Campusano - San Diego Padres C
J.J. Matijevic - Houston Astros OF
Joey Morgan - Detroit Tigers C
Hagen Danner -Toronto Blue Jays C
Christopher Seise -Texas Rangers SS
Connor Wong - Los Angeles Dodgers C
Dylan Busby - Pittsburgh Pirates 3B
Drew Waters - Atlanta Braves OF
Ernie Clement - Cleveland Indians 2B
Cash Case - Cincinnati Reds SS
Cole Brannen - Boston Red Sox OF
Brett Netzer - Boston Red Sox 2B
Brent Rooker -  Minnesota Twins OF
Jacob Pearson - Los Angeles Angels OF
Kevin Merrell - Oakland Athletics SS
Logan Warmoth - Toronto Blue Jays SS
Quentin Holmes - Cleveland Indians OF
Drew Ellis - Arizona Diamondbacks 3B 
 
Recommendations for the other prospects on the checklist are listed below.

Pitchers

Zac Lowther - Baltimore Orioles P - Over 50 innings pitched in rookie ball and the K/9 rate is impressive. On top of that the Auto can be purchased for a bargain bin price. Strong Buy.
MacKenzie Gore - San Diego Padres P - Potential stud that I would purchase if prices are around $15-20.

Hitters


Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics OF - I may have to do a separate write up on Beck. He is my favorite player in this product. Austin has battled various injuries and struggled in pro ball. His stats started to improve later in the season and he has not played with wood bats much. I rate him as a very cautious watch.

Adam Haseley - Philadelphia Phillies OF - Buy. Solid player and Auto's are less than $20.


Brendan McKay- Tampa Bay Rays 1B/P - Buy if you have the budget but prices are way too high for my taste.

Brian Miller - Miami Marlins OF - Bargain Bin Buy. Older prospect and the power seems to be minimal but I love the K and walk rate.

Bubba Thompson - Texas Rangers OF - Strong Buy if prices are under $20. I would pay no more than $25. Thompson is an athlete with pop and speed.

Evan White - Seattle Mariners 1B - White is a watch but could easily turn into a strong buy. Only 55 plate appearances but I like the talent.

Gavin Sheets - Chicago White Sox 1B - A 1B only prospect with nice power. Bargain Bin Buy. Base autographs are around $5.

Heliot Ramos - San Francisco Giants OF - Like the prospect buy only buy if you have the budget. Prices are way too high.

Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels OF - It seems that Adell's Auto is in short supply because the prices are over $300 for a raw base autograph. Love the player but you are better off buying an Acuna or Vlad auto for that price.

Jake Burger - Chicago White Sox 3B - Nice prospect. Nothing really blows me away but if the Auto price is around $15 I would buy. I would not pay more than that though.

Jeter Downs - Cincinnati Reds SS - Strong Buy. The Reds seem to have a formula of drafting athletic guys that they can develop. Jeter has an impressive K rate to go with 6 home runs. I could see this kid making a jump like Taylor Trammell.  

Kacy Clemens - Toronto Blue Jays 1B - When I saw Kacy's stats I got really excited. He is 23 years old and may move fast to the Majors. He is a Bargain Bin Buy as prices are around $5.

Keston Hiura - Milwaukee Brewers 2B - Watch. Keston could complete for a batting title in the future. He is that good and he also has some power. The issue I have is that he is still working out an elbow issue and prices are over $30. Brewers prospects are tricky so I keep my investments small.
   
Kevin Smith - Toronto Blue Jays SS - Bargain Bin Buy. The power numbers are insane for this kid but the strikeout rate is a little high. Multiple scouting reports say his power is ahead of his hitting but for the low prices (Under $5) why not.

Luis Gonzalez - Chicago White Sox OF - Another older prospect that may move fast but the power numbers are decent. A bargain bin buy for sure.

Mark Vientos - New York Mets 3B - A very young player that held his own in rookie ball. I would only buy if around $10. He will be a long term project.

Nick Pratto - Kansas City Royals 1B - Watch. A young player with a strikeout rate too high (25%). A good example of a price being too high due to where a player was drafted and not the stats.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks 1B - Watch. Pavin can hit but I am just not sure if the power is there. Reminds of the same thing that kept me from investing in Nick Senzel.

     
Royce Lewis - Minnesota Twins OF - Nice player but way too high.
  
Ryan Vilade - Colorado Rockies 3B - I like this kid and his stats but Rockies prospects just don't do it for me. I will keep an eye on him.

Stuart Fairchild - Cincinnati Reds OF - Watch closely. Shows a little pop but I really like the plate discipline. Bargain Bin Buy for under $5 right now.


Tristen Lutz - Milwaukee Brewers OF - Strong Buy. Lutz has power and the plate discipline you love. If prices stay around $15 I would be fine making that purchase. Brewers prospects are tricky so I keep my investments small.
   

4 comments:

  1. Took your advice on most of your strong buys and got color of most..went ALL IN on Downs..have 3 base (1 is at beckett, one is 9.5 and 1 raw) I pulled a Green that is at beckett, bought a bgs 9.5 Black auto for 225..and just pulled an Orange in a break!!! My question is what is your thought on Bowman Best autos for prospects..I have an opportunity to buy a Downs red numbered to 10 for about 70 bucks and was wondering what you thought? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. No need to buy Bowman's Best. You have a great inventory of Bowman Chrome Auto's. The Bowman Chrome Auto is king.

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    2. Thanks. I really like this kid. It's funny, my buddy had me watch his tape and I was impressed and decided I would get some autos.. then I creme on here and saw you were also high on him

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    3. Thanks Mark. I thought his numbers were very impressive. His extra base hits jumped out at me as well as the BB/K rate.

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