Monday, March 31, 2014

Travis D'Arnaud (Mets, Catcher) 2013 Season Analysis

Travis D'Arnaud (Mets, Catcher)

D'Arnaud came on the scene last year as the league's top catching prospect, and had a disappointing rookie year.  Let's take a closer look at what happened....

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Jorge Alfaro and Jairo Beras MiLB Writeup #Rangers

Nice writeup over at about the upside of Rangers prospects, Jairo Beras and Jorge Alfaro. (Click here for story).  I rate Alfaro a STRONG BUY and Beras a BUY.

Jorge Alfaro, Catcher

Oscar Taveras and Byron Buxton Ailing

This is one of the reasons I do not normally invest in the hyped high end guys -- they may have the elite talent, but they have the same risks as anyone else.

Oscar Taveras -- Slipped coming out of the batter’s box, hurt his leg... a leg that has already had ankle surgery and hamstring issues
Oscar Taveras Ebay Listings

Byron Buxton -- Sprained wrist, expects to start the season on the DL
Byron Buxton Ebay Listings

Funny baseball injury
Injuries - coming to a theater near you... and you

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

C.J. Edwards Cubs Pitching Debut Analysis

I touted CJ Edwards a lot last year, so I figured I'd check out the Pitch Fx on his Chicago Cubs pitching debut to see what happened...

MLB Prospect Updates - 3/26/2014

Noteworthy Prospect Updates

Brad Miller (SEA, SS) - my former man crush (click here) and STRONG BUY player all of last year - hitting .412, 4 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 10 RBI this Spring.  Still rates a STRONG BUY - cards are here -  Brad Miller Ebay Listings

Carlos Martinez (STL, P) 1-0, 1.76 ERA -  15.1 IP - 9 K - 3 BB this Spring.  BUY rating on his chrome autos found here -  Carlos Martinez Ebay Listings

Javier Baez (CHC, SS/2B/3B) headed to AAA, but will absolutely dominate in that hitter's league.  AAA pitchers beware and these remain a STRONG BUY, as always -- Javier Baez Ebay Listings 

Kolten Wong (STL, 2B) - hitting .391, 5 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI this Spring. BUY his chrome autos here - Kolten Wong Ebay Listings

Michael Choice (TEX, OF) hitting .367 - 5 2B - 3B - 4 HR - 15 RBI this Spring. I mentioned him as my breakout candidate this year because of his move to Texas (click here).  He's making me look like a genius :)  STRONG BUY on his chrome autos here - Michael Choice Ebay Listings

Michael Wacha (STL, P) is 3-0, 1.76 ERA, 15.1 IP - 17 K / 3 BB this Spring.  BUY on his chrome autos here -- Michael Wacha Ebay Listings

Mike Trout (LAA, OF) - hitting .408 - 2 2B - 2 3B - 5HR - 16 RBI this Spring.  No brainer here.  His base chrome auto was the first base chrome auto to reach $1,000 recently since Pujols.  If you want a piece of history (which Trout already is), BUY his chrome autos here - Mike Trout Ebay Listings

Nick Castellanos (DET, 3B) - hitting .389 - 9 2B - 2 HR - 16 RBI this Spring.  Thought his time to buy has passed (click here), but I have to change that rating.  I always knew he could rake (and I actually won a contest predicting him to be the Futures Game MVP a few years back because of that) but damn, he's incredible.  Those doubles could easily translate to home runs, but it still shows his tremendous gap to gap prowess.  STRONG BUY rating on his chrome autos here - Nick Castellanos Ebay Listings

Nolan Arenado (COL, 3B) - .362 - 4 2B - 3B - 3 HR - 7 RBI this Spring.  BUY rating on his chrome autos found here -  Nolan Arenado Ebay Listings

Starling Marte (PIT, OF) hitting .356 - 2 HR - 7 RBI this Spring. BUY his chrome autos here - Starling Marte Ebay Listings

Stephen Piscotty (STL, OF) - Great fielder, also hitting .324 - HR - 7 RBI this Spring.  STRONG BUY - his cards are here - Stephen Piscotty Ebay Listings

Wilmer Flores (NYM, SS) being groomed in Minors for future SS spot - STRONG BUY Bowman Chrome Autos here

Yordano Ventura (KC, P) won the fifth starter spot and for good reason:  1-1, 1.77 ERA - 20.1 IP - 18 K / 4 BB this Spring -- Thought he may struggle (click here), but it appears I will be wrong. STRONG BUY on his 2013 BC Autos here - Yordano Ventura Ebay Listings

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Prospects Fighting For a Roster Spot

Nice article over at (link here), highlighting a couple prospects still battling for a roster spot.

Archie Bradley (Arizona, #5 Starter Spot)

Archie Bradley Ebay Listings
It looks like Archie is bound for the bigs due to Patrick Corbin's injury.  I'm going against the grain and saying this guy is not the top pitching prospect in baseball.  This is a classic case of over hype and I'd bet it's due to the deceiving sub-2.00 ERA last year.  Archie's FIP was a much more modest 3.33 in AA last year, his K:BB was only 2:1 (walked 4.3 per 9 IP, K'd less than 9 per 9 IP), and in 2012, he walked 5.6 per 9 IP.  Has he gained control?  Well, so far this Spring, he's walked 6 and hit a batter in 8.1 IP.  Someone please tell me why no one ever mentions this.  Every now and then, hyped prospects just give me a bad feeling.  I had it last year with Taijuan Walker and Archie is my goat for 2014.
UPDATE 3/27: Archie reassigned to Minors. Told ya. 

Jonathan Schoop (Baltimore, 2B)

Jonathan Schoop Ebay Listings
Schoop is going to win this battle over Jemile Weeks, but it doesn't really matter.  Schoop is a mediocre second baseman with little pop.  No big deal in the Bowman Chrome prospecting world.
UPDATE 3/25: Orioles landed Steve Lombardozzi, which should send Schoop down to minors for more seasoning. 

Jackie Bradley, Jr. (Boston, CF)

Jackie Bradley Ebay Listings
I have to disagree with their prediction on this one that JBJ wins the Center Field job.  I think it's Grady Sizemore's, the former All Star and two time Gold Glover.  He looks great this Spring and no one ever questioned his skills when he's healthy.  Now he's healthy, so why not take a chance?
UPDATE 3/25: Boston manager John Farrell says team will not roster both Sizemore and Bradley. Great position battle continues... 

Wilmer Flores (Mets, SS)

Wilmer Flores Ebay Listings
I mentioned Flores' thrust into the mix in New York here and unfortunately I have to agree with MiLB on this one, and say he doesn't get the job.  MiLB claims it's Ruben Tejada's, but it could also be Omar Quintanilla.  Either way, I'd prefer Flores.  In his SS debut yesterday in Spring, he may have proven skeptics wrongs with a nice play to his right in the hole, where he gunned down the runner at first... but he also muffed a tailor made double play due to poor footwork.  It was awkward looking.

Jake Odorizzi (Rays, #5 Starter Spot)

Jake Odorizzi Ebay Listings
With Hellickson out, Odorizzi is the clear favorite over Erik Bedard to round out Tampa Bay's rotation.
UPDATE 3/23: Odorizzi made the MLB rotation. 

Javier Baez (Cubs, 2B)

Javier Baez Ebay Listings
Yes, another Baez post.  Sorry guys.  But you can't ignore it when the Cubbies trotted him out at second base this week.  It's pretty obvious the Cubs are smart enough to do whatever it takes to get the best hitting prospect into their lineup.  I predict he breaks with the club, as he has proven he is even more ready than the Cubs had anticipated at the start of Spring.

The State of the New York Mets - In Depth Look at Their Bright Future


David Wright on deck first row seats picture
You never experienced a game until you have seats like this.  It was incredible.
Laughed at for a decade, even by me (a true die hard fan), the Mets and their front office led by former Moneyballer Sandy Alderson, are quietly building a formidable franchise.  Grounded in thrifty spending, role players, and building their pitcher-centered farm system, Mets fans have something to get excited about....

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Javier Baez - A Collection of Quotes

I've said it a million times (like I did here and here and here and here and here), and I'll say it again... BUY Javier Baez if you can afford him.  Baez went deep again on Wednesday, and now has 7 hits, 3 of which were home runs.  Here's his bomb from last night.  If I can't convince you, maybe these guys can....


"It's nothing out of the ordinary from what I've seen. I've really never seen anything like him."
-- Mike Olt, commenting on Baez' HR tonight

"Obviously, he's an exciting player, as you guys all have seen.  It's not like you can hide it."
-- manager Rick Renteria

"He can hit, no doubt about it. He's a good player. Everybody knows that."
-- Starlin Castro

"It's not the stolen bases but knowing when to run. He has a great sense of timing at the plate too. He has had a lot of big hits, at big times. That's what the best players do. He finds a lot of different ways to help you win. … That's exciting stuff."
-- Tim Wilken, a special assistant to Cubs President Theo Epstein, scouting director when Baez was drafted

"Baez [and Puig] are similar in a number of ways.  They have that violent swing and what I mean is they really have the bat speed to create impact on the ball.  When they do connect, it goes a mile. They have that rare combination of that violent swing with balance and control."
-- Jody Reed, the former Red Sox infielder who managed Puig at Chattanooga

"Baez is one of only seven players his age or younger who have hit 37-plus homers in a minor-league season in the last 20 years."

"He's a real hard swinger, like Sheffield,"
-- a Southern League coach

"Baez has the best bat speed of any hitter in the minors right now, and the ball explodes off his bat like he's splitting atoms with contact."
-- Keith Law

"Baez can be a .300+ hitter with outstanding power, much like Sheffield or perhaps Vladimir Guerrero in terms of production. If he stays at shortstop, all the better, but even at third base his bat would be a tremendous asset."
-- John Sickels

"It was quite a show.  He sprayed it around, covered different parts of the strike zone, different pitches. His swing is really under control and that's the great thing about Javy and his bat speed. He doesn't have to swing for the fences. He can take a nice, normal under-control swing, the type that would normally produce a line drive or a ball in the gap, and in his case, there's plenty of carry over the fences."
-- Theo Epstein, the Cubs' president of baseball operations

“There’s lightning in that bat,”
-- manager Rick Renteria

"Javier Baez – that’s one of the best talents I’ve ever seen at the minor-league level.  That guy has a great future ahead of him. He doesn’t even know how good he is.”
-- Daytona hitting coach Mariano Duncan

“He’s special.  Hopefully, he just keeps doing what he’s doing."
-- Bench Coach Jamie Quirk

"What I see in spring training is unbelievable. He’s got a lot of power and plays very good defense, too... it’s very impressive. (I) hope to see him soon in the big leagues."
-- Alfonso Soriano

"“I will do whatever they want me to.  My goal is to show them I can play the game hard and come to play every day.”
-- Javier Baez


Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Why You Should Buy Rafael Montero

Rafael Montero 2013 Bowman Chrome Auto Red Refractor /5

As a die hard prospector and Mets fan, I assure you I am not biased when it comes to Rafael Montero.  He is as polished as they come.  Pinpoint control, a smaller frame, and beautiful mechanics lead to comps with Pedro Martinez.  And if the Mets didn't have Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard, Montero would receive the most hype in the Mets Spring Training camp.  If you don't know too much about Montero, I think you'd be amazed when you see his career numbers (click here).

Jon Niese can't seem to stay healthy and Matt Harvey is out for the year due to Tommy John surgey, so Montero is a prime candidate to see time in the majors.  As such, I was shocked to see how cheap his 2013 Bowman Chrome autos have been selling for.

The pricing is all over the place but both base and refractor autographs are in the $10 - $20 range.  Blues are $40 - $50.  Golds are $80 - $100.  This is tremendous value.  Syndergaard's base auto is equal in price to Montero's blue.  That's amazing for anyone smart enough to buy Montero right now.  Believe it or not, I can easily imagine Montero spiking at some point to Syndergaard levels... that would be about a 500% profit, and it could happen as early as this year.

Rafael Montero Ebay Listings Search


Montero Red !!!!

Montero Lot - Blue Wave, Blue, Ref

Montero Raw Gold

Montero Raw Gold
Montero PRISTINE Refractor 10/10
Montero Raw Blue

Montero Raw Blue

Montero Base BGS 9.5/10

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Top 100 Prospects -- Current Sales Values-- Who Are Bargains?

Top 100 Prospects Bowman Chrome Auto Pricing


Sorted from cheapest to most expensive average Sales Value

As of 3/8/2014 (ranked according to consensus rankings, compiled by Beyond The Box Score):

Spring Training 2014 - Hot List - Prospects For Cash - 3/8/2014

A quick look at stats after a little more than a week lands these prospects on my Prospects For Cash Spring Training Hot List....

All In One Microsoft Excel Bowman Chrome MLB Prospect Investment Tool For Sale

Excel All-In-One Prospecting Tool

All-in-one, Microsoft Excel prospecting database tool FOR SALE.  I promise this is the last Excel spreadsheet program you'll need when it comes to Bowman Chrome autos.  Plus, I'll include an eBay sales manager tool for free -- click here to see it.

If you're not satisfied and I can't fix it, I'll offer a full refund and you can keep the program for free.


This is an inventory manager for Prospect baseball cards, designed by

Player Lists

In the sheets "PROSPECTS 2010 - PRESENT" and the sheets for each individual set, you will find all the Bowman Chrome and Bowman Chrome Draft Autos, along with current team, position, and a hyperlink to their stats. The sheet "PROSPECTS - PRE-2010" does not have hyperlinks. The sheets can be sorted in any way you want. For quick additions to your inventory or watch list, simply highlight the full player name you want (Column A) and click Add to Inventory or Watch List.


When a player is added to the inventory, all versions of his card will default to a quantity of 0.

Type in the appropriate quantities for that player. Click Inventory Input for an easy to use pop up input box.


On the "BGS INVENTORY" sheet, click Add Card to easily add all of your graded cards to your BGS Inventory. Choose the card, variation, and grades for each and click OK. To delete any cards in the BGS Inventory click on any cell in the row you wish to delete, right click, delete, delete row.

Watch List

When a player is added to your watch list, you can use this for anything you want, linking to ebay searches, price tracking, etc.


This is an up to date list of all the pulled superfractors to date, that have been spotted. Any card with an X has been pulled.


Tool to calculate ebay fees and direct paypal fees. Before using for the first time, you can input the USPS shipping costs for each package and insurance costs. These values will add to the dropdown menu in the S/H fields so you do not have to type them ever again. You can just click the price.

Top Prospect Lists

"Matrix" has the full list of prospects and top prospect rankings next to top prospects, from a variety of sources. "BA" has the 2014 Baseball America grids of the top 10 prospects for each MLB team. "BA TOP100" has the Baseball America top 100 prospects with a one line analysis of each. "Top 100 Lists" has the four best Top 100 lists from 2014.

Create A Chart

You will notice buttons on the Inventory and Watch List pages, for creating charts. To quickly and easily make a chart of your inventory, highlight all of the cells with data (including the headers in the top row), and simply click the button. This creates a nice visual chart of your inventory (or data in your watch list). You can resize the chart as needed, by clicking on it and then clicking a corner of the chart and pulling to a larger size.


The "LEDGER" is used to keep track of all purchases and sales. Click the button CLICK TO ENTER TRANSACTION. Choose the card, variation, and type in the $ amount. If it's a purchase, type a negative number. If it's a sale, type a positive number. When you click enter a few things happen: the card inputs into the ledger, and the ledger updates. Then on the right, it creates a reference, which is the card. This reference list is useful for a quick snapshot of your net profit and loss for each card. I.E. If you enter a thousand transactions (sales and purchases) that involve Buxton, on the right, Buxton will have one line, and will automatically calculate your profit or loss on all Buxton cards. The Profit / Loss Income Statement on the next tab calculates based on all those automatically generated reference net totals. In the yellow cells on the bottom, you can input any other expenses not already included in your Ledger, for a complete Prospecting Income Statement.


"Profit Goals" is a quick reference chart of when to sell via ebay based on purchase price. It assumes a flat $2.50 s/h cost to you for shipping and supplies, a 3% + $0.30 paypal fee, a free ebay listing fee, a 10% ebay final value fee, and a goal of 20%+ net profit.

Customize Properties

On the main sheet "PROSPECTS 2010 - PRESENT" there is a neat little tool I made to quickly and easily customize the properties of the spreadsheet. Options include toggling on and off showing: formula bar, status bar, sheet tabs, horizontal scroll bar, vertical scroll bar, row and column headers, page breaks, gridlines, and a toggle to zoom in and out.

Questions or comments

Feel free to contact me at with any questions, comments, complaints, or to inquire about other prospecting products.







Wednesday, March 5, 2014

10%, 50%, and 100% Profit Goal Chart for Ebay Sales Values

Here is a chart, adding a conservative 10% profit goal and risky 50% and 100% profit goals to the recommended 20% profit goal chart from The 20% Profit Strategy.

My strategy is to shoot for 20% profits. This chart lists how much to sell on ebay for those 20% profits as well as 10%, 50%, 100%. 

10%, 20%, 50%, 100% Profit Goals and How Much You Need to Sell for on Ebay

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The 20% Profit Strategy for Bowman Chrome Autograph Investments

Most readers ask the same question: should I sell (insert prospect name here) now?  I can technically answer the same for everyone...

Profit Logo
How to make this a reality...

What To Do With Miguel Sano (Tommy John Surgery) and His 2010 Bowman Chrome Autographs


Miguel Sano will miss the entire 2014 season, undergoing Tommy John surgery.  What does that mean for his 2010 Bowman Chrome autographs?

Miguel Sano gif power swing
What 80 Power Looks Like

Prospects Who Could Be On An MLB Roster in 2014 (Part 6) - Buxton, Bogaerts, Taveras, Baez, Lindor, Walker, Gausman

Part 6 -- Prospects (who have chrome autos) who are in the MLB or on the fringe... 

Byron Buxton, Xander Bogaerts, Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Taijuan Walker, Kevin Gausman...

The violently beautiful hack of Oscar Taveras and the sad baseball that fell victim to it

Saturday, March 1, 2014