Sunday, December 14, 2014

2014 Bowman Draft Prospects To Buy (Part 1)

So, the first step I take whenever a new Bowman Prospects set comes out (2014 Bowman Draft was released this week), is I just simply take a look at what they did in rookie ball.  For pitchers, I believe the biggest indicator of future success is the K:IP ratio.  Simple, but effective.  It signifies dominant stuff.  A low amount of hits against is a nice back-up to that.  ERA means nothing and I don't put too much stock into BB for pitchers in Rookie ball.  These are still kids, not yet pitchers.

For hitters, I look for nice BB:K ratios and extra base hits.  The BB:K ratios tell me the hitter is advanced and has an idea of what he's doing at the plate.  He isn't getting overmatched by the opposing pitcher.  Extra base hits are more important than home runs because many of the doubles and triples translate to home runs in the future as the prospect grows and gets stronger.

So, here are the first 3 of the prospects I found with 2014 Bowman Draft autographs who I like:

Bargain Bin Alert #Orioles Prospect Brian Gonzalez
His autos range from $4-10, putting him at the low end of the spectrum, yet he K's 36 in 33.2 IP, and held hitters to a .179 average.  He was a third rounder so he might just be overlooked right now.

#Astros Prospect A.J. Reed
Reed is in the $7-10 category as well, but the dude is built like a linebacker and hit 33 extra base hits in only 249 ABs.  His 30 BB were also good enough to give him an OBP of .375.

#Athletics Dillon Overton
Overton is a STRONG BUY. His 53 K in 37 IP are almost as impressive as his 4 BB allowed.  The kid must have pounded the strike zone with unhittable stuff.  His autos are only about $3, probably due to his age (23), but that doesn't mean he has no future.

Stay tuned for more...

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

2014 Bowman Chrome Draft Checklist

As always, ANY and ALL donations are greatly appreciated!!! Simply click below and enter any amount you are comfortable with.

Just click the player to see his stats:

A.J. Reed - Houston Astros
Aaron Nola - Philadelphia Phillies
Alex Blandino - Cincinnati Reds
Alex Jackson - Seattle Mariners
Alex Verdugo - Los Angeles Dodgers
Aramis Garcia - San Francisco Giants
Austin DeCarr - New York Yankees
Blake Anderson - Miami Marlins
Bradley Zimmer - Cleveland Indians
Braxton Davidson - Atlanta Braves
Brian Gonzalez - Baltimore Orioles
Cameron Varga - Tampa Bay Rays
Carson Sands - Chicago Cubs
Chad Sobotka - Atlanta Braves
Chase Vallot - Kansas City Royals
Chris Ellis - Los Angeles Angels
Cole Tucker - Pittsburgh Pirates
Connor Joe - Pittsburgh Pirates
Derek Fisher - Houston Astros
Derek Hill - Detroit Tigers
Dillon Overton - Oakland Athletics
Dylan Cease - Chicago Cubs
Erick Fedde - Washington Nationals
Forrest Wall - Colorado Rockies
Foster Griffin - Kansas City Royals
Gareth Morgan - Seattle Mariners
Garrett Fulenchek - Atlanta Braves
Grant Hockin - Cleveland Indians
Grant Holmes - Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack Flaherty - St. Louis Cardinals
Jacob Gatewood - Milwaukee Brewers
Jacob Lindgren - New York Yankees
Jake Stinnett - Chicago Cubs
Jakson Reetz - Washington Nationals
Jeff Brigham - Los Angeles Dodgers
Jeff Hoffman - Toronto Blue Jays
Joe Gatto - Los Angeles Angels
Johnny Manziel - San Diego Padres
Justin Twine - Miami Marlins
Justus Sheffield - Cleveland Indians
Kodi Medeiros - Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Freeland - Colorado Rockies
Kyle Schwarber - Chicago Cubs
Luis Ortiz - Texas Rangers
Luke Weaver - St. Louis Cardinals
Marcus Wilson - Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Chapman - Oakland Athletics
Matt Imhof - Philadelphia Phillies
Max Pentecost - Toronto Blue Jays
Michael Chavis - Boston Red Sox
Michael Gettys - San Diego Padres
Michael Kopech - Boston Red Sox
Mike Papi - Cleveland Indians
Monte Harrison - Milwaukee Brewers
Nick Burdi - Minnesota Twins
Nick Gordon - Minnesota Twins
Nick Howard - Cincinnati Reds
Nick Wells - Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Castellani - Colorado Rockies
Ryan Ripken - Washington Nationals
Scott Blewett - Kansas City Royals
Sean Newcomb - Los Angeles Angels
Sean Reid-Foley - Toronto Blue Jays
Spencer Adams - Chicago White Sox
Taylor Sparks - Cincinnati Reds
Ti'Quan Forbes - Texas Rangers
Trea Turner - San Diego Padres
Trey Supak - Pittsburgh Pirates
Tyler Beede - San Francisco Giants
Tyler Kolek - Miami Marlins
Zech Lemond - San Diego Padres

Sunday, November 16, 2014

#Yankees Prospect Greg Bird Wins Arizona Fall League MVP

Yankees prospect Greg Bird is making a name for himself this offseason, winning MVP honors in the AFL as well as the Fall Stars Game.

Topping the AFL with 6 HR, finishing second with 21 RBI, and batting .313 was enough for the 22-year old to take home the 2014 Joe Black Award.

Does this award predict future success?  Well, previous winners include Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Hanson, and Dustin Ackley, all of whom have/had Bowman Chrome prospect autographs that are/were in the high end spectrum at one point or another.

I think we can reasonably assume Bird will get a bump in pricing, and it has already begun, but I think he is still a good buy.

Just click here to GET SOME!

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Buy Ben Lively (SP, Cincinnati Reds, 2014 Bowman Chrome Autograph)

I am utterly shocked at the pricing of Ben Lively's NEW Bowman Chrome autos.  When chrome autos drop, all players are typically overpriced at first.  Yet, one of my favorite pitching prospects, is actually UNDERVALUED.  The only explanation could be that it's the offseason but the fact remains, buying Ben Lively could be a very profitable move eventually...

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Prospect Call Ups

On the day after Jorge Soler went yard for the Cubs, I'm reminded of my changing philosophy toward prospects who are called up to the Majors.

I used to think Major League prospects lose value in the Majors (which they often due as time goes on), but there is one caveat.  It sometimes pays to wait a week or so.  The reasons for this are twofold:  if the prospect struggles for his first week or so, his value will not decrease much.  Smart prospectors who are holding will not panic.  Second, if he plays well, his value could skyrocket.

So it is a no lose situation to hold for a few days after a promotion.  Hey, imagine Soler hits a bomb in a few straight games.  The upside is tremendous.

Jorge Soler (OF, Cubs) Stats

Thursday, August 21, 2014

What are YOUR thoughts on #Cubs Javier Baez?

For all intents and purposes, let's just estimate Baez strikes out half the time he is up ever since his MLB promotion.  I'm tired of writing about my favorite prospect since 2012, so I'm curious what YOU think of his ridiculous K rate and potential.  Comment below or email me.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2014 Bowman Chrome Autograph Prospects Who Are Having Good Years

You'll notice this is not the strongest class of Bowman Chrome autographs, but here are the best performers so far in the 2014 season from the 2014 BC Auto class:

Billy Burns Ebay Listings
Some say he can beat Billy Hamilton in a race.  53 SB.

Christian Binford Ebay Listings
133 K, 17 BB at 3 different levels.  Um, yes please.

Chris Bostick Ebay Listings
44 XBH, 19 SB

Casey Meisner Ebay Listings
53 K, 51 IP

Daniel Robertson Ebay Listings
.306 - 102 R - 15 HR

Devon Travis Ebay Listings
.298 - 9 HR - 14 SB

Josh Hader Ebay Listings
Managed a 2.70 ERA in CAL to earn a promotion

Jesse Winker Ebay Listings
15 bombs in 282 AB

Kris Bryant Ebay Listings
Yeah, you know.

Ketel Marte Ebay Listings
.303 - 26 SB at two levels

Luke Jackson Ebay Listings
8-2  3.02  a K per IP before promotion to unforgiving PCL

Lewis Thorpe Ebay Listings
61 K - 59 IP     

Mookie Betts Ebay Listings
.346 - 11 HR - 33 SB --- now a major leaguer

Pierce Johnson Ebay Listings
2.37 -- 86 K -- 87.1 IP -- two levels

Preston Tucker Ebay Listings
.276 - 74 R - 24 HR - 85 RBI -- two levels

Raimel Tapia Ebay Listings
.855 OPS - 30 SB

Yohander Mendez Ebay Listings
2.14 ERA - 23 K - 21 IP

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Javier Baez Hitting Analysis (Part 1)

August 10, 2014

Javier Baez Stats
JAVIER BAEZ - eBay Listings

The Javier Baez era has begun, as the Cubs decided to change the youngest player in the majors from Bryce Harper to Baez.  I have constantly been recommending him as my favorite hitting prospect and it is paying off.

He's already shown his exciting talents, quick wrists, and power, and has even hit a game-winning HR.  But it looks like he's been hit or miss, with the misses being literal misses (i.e. strikeouts).  Let's see what's going on:

Baez is what I like to call "hitterish".  He's up there to hit the ball, and hit it hard.  This is probably due to his quick wrists and being conditioned to thinking he can hit anything, because all his life, his bat really was able to hit anything.

I don't think pitch type has much to do with Baez's K's as much as location does.  The glaring stat is pitchers are getting swings and misses from Baez with offspeed and breaking stuff in the dirt.

Here are the percentage of pitches in each zone, looking at breaking stuff and offspeed stuff only.  Almost everything is low.  More than half of pitchers' secondary pitches are low and out of the zone.

Now, here are the swing and misses from Baez on offspeed and breaking pitches.  His swing and miss percentage on balls in the lowest row is terrible.  About 2/3 of the time he swings at pitches below the zone, he whiffs.

Simply put, Baez needs to learn to recognize secondary offerings and stop swinging at stuff in the dirt, because he isn't hitting it.  Pitchers are expanding the zone on Baez and he's taking the bait.  Over time, he will start recognizing these pitches, laying off, and getting ahead in counts.  This will force pitchers to throw strikes and Baez can crush the ball when it's over the plate.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Prospect Reviews 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autographs (Part 2)

Quick reviews of the prospects in the 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph set.  Part 2 of 2.  Enjoy.

Kevin Franklin - Stats
1:10 BB:K ratio.  Nuff said.

Kevin Ziomek - Stats
Ebay Search Link
This guy is putting up huge numbers but he's facing much younger hitters at Low-A.  Need to see him at higher levels.

Kohl Stewart - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Disabled List.  Ground ball pitcher.  Not enough K's.  Pass.

Marco Gonzales - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Got rocked in PCL and Majors.  Not a shocker.  Still a talented arm.

Michael Lorenzen - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Another ground ball pitcher with relatively low K rate.  Not exciting for me.

Nick Ciuffo - Stats
Ebay Search Link - Ciuffo
Very young.  Small sample size.  Evaluation pending.

Oscar Mercado - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Speedster.  No pop.  Pass.

Phil Ervin - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Big numbers last year.  Heavy struggles this year and a repeat at the level.  Not sure what's up.

Reese McGuire - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Boring utility type player.

Riley Unroe - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Another boring utility guy.

Robert Kaminsky - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Love this kid.  High floor, "low" ceiling.

Ryan Eades - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Hitters feast on this guy.

Ryan McMahon - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
STRONG BUY.  Will be promoted to CAL one day.  Look out.

Ryder Jones - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Could be out of baseball soon.

Tim Anderson - Stats
Ebay Search Link - Anderson
On the disabled list but a nice little player. Speed, hits for average and added some pop with 4 HR in June. His home away splits are drastic though (hitting .383 at home in Winston-Salem A+ CAR, and only .235 on the road).  Winston-Salem does have the highest park factor for hits in the Carolina League but only by a small margin, so I'm not sure what that's all about. 

Tom Windle - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
I think this kid is just a victim of the CAL hitter's environment.  He's better than his current numbers.  Could be a nice Bargain Bin buy.

Travis Demeritte - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
Tons of pop for a second baseman, but tons of K's too.  He'll either develop or get embarrassed at higher levels.  It's anyone's guess.

Trevor Williams - Stats
Ebay Search Link 
He's not a strikeout pitcher but he keeps the ball on the ground.  Batted balls aren't so bad at his club's major league level.  Miami is a tough ballpark to hit in.  His FIP has always been good despite the low K's.

Trey Ball - Stats
Ebay Search Link - Ball
This guy gets knocked around like a pinball.

Tyler Danish - Stats 
Ebay Search Link 
Apparently, he has a crazy sidearm delivery, but it's working with an incredible rate of ground balls (over 2:1 GO/FO).  The side arm delivery adds to the effectiveness of his plus slider, which complements a fastball that has reached the mid-90's.  I like the kid.