Friday, December 27, 2013

2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto Analysis -- Part 1



2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks and Prospects Logo Print Runs

The first thing I do when a new set arrives is my own sabermetric research, before reading any scouting reports, watching videos, etc.  This is usually the step where I come across bargains and sleepers, but also has its drawbacks as some players I am analyzing "blindly", since I am only looking at numbers.
As the Bowman Chrome Draft autographs sets have recently been on fire, I'll be analyzing these guys in steps (the first being the manner in which I just described), and thoroughly, so we can have another good year of prospecting.

So without further ado, here is what I found.  For reference, I recommend also opening my post "2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autograph Checklist - LINKS TO STATS", which is exactly what it sounds like.  It is the entire auto checklist and Aflac/Perfect Game/Under Armour checklist, with links to stats and every player's eBay searches.  Bookmark that page and trust me, it will be the most useful tool you have all season.  I wouldn't prospect without it.

1. Aaron Blair
Built like a linebacker -- held his own - keep an eye on him

2. Aaron Judge
Another monster of a man -- if he can translate his 6'7" frame to bombs in the Bronx, look out

Saturday, November 16, 2013

2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autograph Checklist - Links to Stats

2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Autographed Prospects Set Checklist

2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks and Prospects Logo

47 Cards
1:35 H / 1:6 J

Refractor (1:132 H / 1:21 J)
Blue #/99 (1:659 H / 1:108 J)
Green #/75 (1:872 H / 1:142 J)
Gold #/50 (1:1,309 H / 1:213 J)
Black #/35 (1:1,097)
Orange #/25 (1:2,615 H / 1:426 J)
Purple (1:6,555 H / 1:1,065 J)
Red #/5 (1:13,065 H / 1:2,120 J)
Superfractor 1/1 (1:63,800 H / 1:10,500 J)
Printing Plates 1/1 (1:16,356 H / 1:2,662 J)

Blue Wave #/50
Black Wave #/50

Aaron Blair
Ebay Search Link - Blair

Aaron Judge
Scouting Report
Ebay Search Link

Andrew Church
Ebay Search Link - Church

Monday, September 2, 2013

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 3 - By Set 2010 - 2013

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 3 - By Set 2010 - 2013

Here are my favorite prospect autos from 2010-2013.  Bowman Chrome Draft will be Bowman Chrome Draft Autographs and Bowman Chrome will be chrome autographs found in Bowman and Bowman Chrome sets. 

Sunday, September 1, 2013

AL West - Angels, Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Rangers - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - Buy Hold Sell

AL West - Angels, Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Rangers - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - BUY HOLD SELL

The AL West is my favorite division of prospect bowman chrome autographs, especially the Texas Rangers...

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

AL Central - White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Royals - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - Buy Hold Sell

AL Central - White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Royals - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - BUY HOLD SELL

The AL Central has only 6 Bowman Chrome prospect autographs that I ranked as a BUY, but the Twins have some good ones.  I'm starting to realize how strict I am when it comes to investing in prospects, which brings up an important lesson:  NEVER regret a decision NOT to buy.  Only regret the decisions to BUY when they lost money for you.  Like they said in Rounders, "You can't lose what you don't throw into the pot."

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 2 - By Set 2002 - 2009

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 2 - By Set 2002 - 2009

My favorite prospect autos from 2002-2009.  Bowman Chrome Draft will be Bowman Chrome Draft Autographs and Bowman Chrome will be chrome autographs found in Bowman and Bowman Chrome sets. 

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 1 - Introduction

My 2013 Prospect Awards: Part 1

Due to popular demand, I will give you guys what you have been asking for: My favorite prospects: by team, set, position, and my yearly award winners. 

This should be a lot of fun (and a lot of work) so keep checking back for new posts in the series.  They'll all be tagged with the label "My Favorites".  Each thread will focus on one topic (e.g. By position, By set, etc). 

I really hope you enjoy it as much as I will. And remember, my opinions are my opinions. They are not a guaranteed way to profit (although my recommendations thus far would have made you profits).

And once again, thanks for all amazing support over the last few weeks. I've heard from some great prospectors and I hope to hear from more of you. 

Monday, August 26, 2013

AL East - Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - Buy Hold Sell

AL East - Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles - Prospect BC Auto Analysis - BUY HOLD SELL

The AL East is a weird one.  I love a lot of the prospects with Bowman Chrome autos but aside from the Blue Jays, I don't believe you'll find many BUYs.  I attribute this to the popularity of the teams and the result that these prospects are hyped and overvalued.  I see one name that really stands out though.  I should do a write up on him.  It's a little known stud named MITCH NAY...

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Jedd Gyorko (Padres, 2B / 3B) - Why I'm Selling - My Thoughts on Prospects in The Major Leagues

Albert A. asked me a good question.  He asked:
"I want to start off by saying, I love your work. You make collecting prospects fun again. Please tell my why you think Gyorko is a "sell"? I just picked up one of his chrome auto refractors for $15. This guy is leading the NL rookies in homers and it seems to me that its only a matter of time before collectors start recognizing his potential. What do you think?"

It brings up an important issue for prospectors, which is the impact that making it to the majors has on BC autos.  Here was my response as to why I rated Gyorko's 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto a SELL:

Friday, August 23, 2013

NL West - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres - Bowman Chrome Autograph Analysis

NL WEST - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres - Bowman Chrome Autograph Analysis


Teams listed are the teams represented ON THE CARD - player may be on a different team now
BC = Bowman Chrome Autograph (from Bowman or Bowman Chrome)
BDPP - Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph

Here is a nice, compact view of my buy, hold, sell ratings for the prospect autographs found on the Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres.

Patrick Kivlehan Makes The Baseball America Hot Sheet

Patrick Kivlehan Makes The Baseball America Hot Sheet

I'll cap off my obsession with Mariners super underrated prospect Patrick Kivlehan with my analysis of his chrome auto values, via my answer to a reader's question.  Ironically, I mention how Baseball America claimed they didn't want to include Kivlehan in a Hot Sheet, yet there he is... he finally made it this week at #10.


Anonymous August 22, 2013 at 4:21 AM
How much higher do you see Kivlehan going? He's having a great year, but still pretty overlooked by many. Any chance at a September call up?

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Bargain Bin - Patrick Kivlehan (Seattle Mariners, 3B)

Bargain Bin - Patrick Kivlehan (Seattle Mariners, 3B)

In May, I posted [this article] where I said that Kivlehan was a STRONG BUY because, "Soon, he will be promoted to the CAL league where his power can absolutely explode."

Well, Kivlehan (Stats) got promoted to CAL (A Advanced), and has done exactly what I predicted.  He exploded.  No, not literally.  His bat may have a few times because he's a beast, but he... sorry...  I get flustered when discussing my fellow Rutgers graduate.

Kivlehan has 2013 Bowman Chrome Autographs that literally sell for a dollar or two.  Well, the only thing is Kivlehan won the Big East Triple Crown at Rutgers in the first year he played college ball (and he is the only player to EVER win the Big East Triple Crown).  He won the Northwest League MVP last year in his first year of pro ball.  And since his A Adv. promotion to the CAL, the dude is batting: .324 with 10 HR, 36 RBI, and 10 SB in 185 ABs.  What is wrong with this market?!  The beast is literally a natural who does not know the meaning of fail.

Seriously, other than being a little old for A ball (he turns 24 in December), give me one good reason why buying a $2 Kivlehan BC Auto is a risky venture.  I know, you can't.  Don't worry.  I can't either.


San Francisco Giants - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS - Prospect Autographs


Reader Feedback: What's Wrong With Joc Pederson?

Reader Feedback: What's Wrong With Joc Pederson?


What's Wrong With Joc Pederson?

The facts: 

Joc Pederson (Stats) was one of my favorite mid-end prospects entering this season.  He was fairly priced, showed nice pop, and had the ability to steal a bag.  By mid-season (believe it or not), Joc's numbers were very similar to George Springer (Stats).  Unless you were sleeping under a rock, you now know Springer is probably putting up the most impressive minor league season this year.  So, for Joc to keep pace through 300 ABs says a lot.

But since July, Joc's numbers have been awful (despite playing in the same league):
15-for-84 with 28 K / 15 BB, only 4 SB / 3 CS, and little power - 2 HR
  • 33% K Rate, compared to only 24% before that
  • Stolen Base success rate dropped from 89% to 57%
  • And his average dropped from .302 down to .179
What happened?  Would you be a panic seller of his 2012 Bowman Chrome Autos or are you buying on the price dip?


Saturday, August 10, 2013

Bargain Bin - Rymer Liriano (OF, San Diego Padres)

Bargain Bin - Rymer Liriano (OF, SAN DIEGO PADRES)

The Padres have a pretty weak farm system, but one Padres Bowman Chrome auto peaks my interest...

Colorado Rockies - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

COLORADO ROCKIES - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team


The Rockies have only 5 chrome autos from 2011 through 2013, as of today, but 3 of them are very intriguing:

  1. Trevor Story 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft

  2. David Dahl 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft

  3. Eddie Butler 2013 Bowman Chrome

Friday, August 9, 2013

Bargain Bin - Trevor Story (SS, Colorado Rockies)

Bargain Bin - Trevor Story (SS, Colorado Rockies) - A Adv. CAL

Trevor Story's 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autographs are in the single digits (less than $10), and his recent resurgence qualifies him as a prime candidate for my Bargain Bin specials...

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

St. Louis Cardinals - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team


The Cardinals have a nice farm system, not incredibly deep, but full of elite talent on both sides of the field. 

2010 BC - Shelby Miller

2011 BDPP - Kolten Wong

2013 BC - Stephen Piscotty, Patrick Wisdom


Shelby Miller is quickly becoming one of the best starting pitchers in the NL (I would recommend his 2010 BC Autos for high end collectors as there is room to grow).  Michael Wacha could become the next Adam Wainwright.  And Oscar Taveras should be in the discussion when discussing the best hitting prospect(s) in baseball...

Bargain Bin - Eddie Butler (SP, Col)


This recommendation breaks a couple of the rules I try to follow when prospecting with Bowman Chrome Autos, but rightfully so.  Here are a few rules I try to stick to...

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Milwaukee Brewers - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

MILWAUKEE BREWERS - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

This should be a relatively quick post, as the Brew Crew has only one prospect I like.  I'd rather talk about that Brewers logo above.  I just found out it was designed to be shaped like an "M" (the glove fingers) and a "B" (the thumb and ball).  I thought that was pretty cool.

Any way, here are your Brewers prospects:

Monday, July 29, 2013

Chicago Cubs - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

Let's just say the Cubbies farm system is loaded.  Theo Epstein has what could be my favorite stock of offensive prospects (the Rangers are close as well)...

CJ Edwards Unhittable in Cubs Debut

I wont ruin the surprise so go and check out the Cubs debut pitching line for my favorite pitching prospect since the beginning of the year, CJ Edwards

More prospects by team posts coming shortly...

Thanks again to all my readers and followers!!  Hope you're making some cash.

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Cincinatti Reds - Prospect Autograph Analysis From Every MLB Team

The Reds farm system has 3 worthy BC Autos: The fastest prospect in baseball, a pitcher with a sub-2.00 career MiLB ERA who ping pongs between the minors/majors/rotation/bullpen, and my favorite pitching prospect in baseball... 

Friday, July 26, 2013

Pittsburgh Pirates - Prospect Autograph Analysis from Every MLB Team Continues

There's a lot to like in the Pirates system.  There's a great mix of potential frontline starters as well as toolsy hitters, and they all have Bowman Chrome autos...

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Prospect Autograph Analysis From Each MLB Team - NL East

In my first "Prospects By Team" post, I'm choosing the entire NL East division (despite my intention to devote a thread to every other team).  As you'll see, I can do this for the NL East because the number of chrome autos I'd BUY from this division is pretty minimal...

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Oh Hello, CJ Edwards (new SP for the Cubbies)

If you follow my blog, thank you.  And more importantly, you've been bombarded by CJ Edwards posts from me all year, as Edwards has been my favorite pitching prospect out of the 2013 BC auto set (from day one).

Well, his prices are on the move big time as he has been traded (with Olt) to the Chicago Cubs for Matt Garza.  This is the catalyst we needed... simply put, Edwards is now on the map.  Not sure what took so long, but he's a stud and I'm happy to see buyers flocking to pick him up.  It looks like his base autos have jumped from $5-7 to as high as $15 (as of today).

Hopefully, I helped you learn about Edwards and influenced you to pick some of his autos up.  If so, congrats.  When a nice little spike like this happens, I typically do one of two things:
  • If possible, I sell as much as is needed to recover my cost for all Edwards purchases.  This leaves me however many cards left, at a zero cost.  Then, I can easily track my profits because the cards left over are all profit.
  • If that's not possible (e.g. - after recovering your costs, you would end up keeping only one or two cards), I like to unload about half of my stash, as long as the prospect is still in the lower levels and I still believe in him.

I'd love to hear from you guys if Edwards fattened your wallet.

More consistent postings are on the horizon, so stay tuned...

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Top 100 Prospect Pitchers of Note

A few days ago I looked at the tools rankings of the Top 100 Prospects that were hitters, as published by Baseball America (Thread Here).  And it was painfully obvious how easy it was to find the prospects with the best offensive tools, and almost all of them now have high end BC autos.

Today, I'm going to look at the pitchers that appeared in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect List, and see if there's a pattern somewhere in the scouting grades.

47 pitchers made the list, and each is graded on 5 tools.  All pitchers have a grade for Control, Command, and three pitch types: fastball, changeup, breaking ball (specified as either a curveball or a slider).  My goal was to see if anything stuck out in terms of breakout prospects and their tools, and something did, almost as obvious as it did for the hitters.

You can separate the tools into two categories: pitch types and control/command.  I don't have to define pitch types for you, but control and command, believe it or not, are actually not universally defined.  There are two schools of thought on the difference between control and command.  The first is that control is accuracy while command is the ability to throw strikes.  To me, those are the same exact thing.  So, I prefer the second school of thought, which is control is accuracy whereas command is your ability to make pitches move the way you want them to (e.g. sink out of the zone, rise up out of the zone, etc.).  But what I found is that as long as you lump those two grades together, it doesn't matter.

Now, you can focus on total grade of a pitcher's pitches and total grade of his control/command.  Of the 47 pitchers in the Top 100 list, only 6 pitchers had a combined grade of at least 195 for their pitches, and only 5 had a combined grade of 120 for control/command.  What I found was either/or worked in terms of a prospect's success.

Starting with the 5 control/command  studs, there are:
Jose Fernandez
Kyle Zimmer
Andrew Heaney
Michael Wacha
Justin Nicolino

Now, what I absolutely love about this is that EVERY one of these guys is doing amazing, with their performance and more importantly, the value of their BC autos.  And even better, Wacha was all the way down at #76, and Nicolino was #86, so they were prime bargain candidates.

Next, the 6 pitchers who had a combined grade of 195+ for their 3 pitches were:
Gerrit Cole
Dylan Bundy
Jose Fernandez
Lucas Giolito
Trevor Bauer
Alex Meyer

Meyer was only ranked #59 and Giolito was #67.  Besides Bauer, the others are obviously studs.

So, what does this all mean?  Well, like the hitters, if you just looked to find the pitchers who had 3 possible plus pitches, or both control and command, you could have found Wacha, Nicolino, Meyer, and Giolito way down the list and made some money.  This is how I found Nicolino.

You could have also avoided overrated pitchers who lack 3 quality pitches and control/command (Danny Hultzen, Matt Barnes, Julio Teheran, Allen Webster, etc.).

That said, the most impressive toolsy prospects who I'd recommend are Kyle Zimmer and Lucas Giolito.  They are tied for 4th in total grades of all 5 categories, behind only Bundy, Fernandez, and Cole... good company to be in.

Rank Pitcher FB Curve Change Control Command
5 Jose Fernandez  75 65 55 65 60
6 Shelby Miller  70 60 50 60 55
7 Gerrit Cole (slider) 80 70 60 55 50
11 Zack Wheeler (slider) 70 60 50 60 55
12 Tyler Skaggs  60 65 55 60 55
14 Trevor Bauer  70 70 55 55 50
18 Taijuan Walker  70 60 55 55 50
19 Jameson Taillon  75 65 50 60 55
24 Kyle Zimmer  70 65 55 65 55
25 Archie Bradley  75 65 50 55 50
26 Kevin Gausman  70 50 60 60 55
29 Danny Hultzen  60 55 60 60 55
36 Chris Archer  70 70 45 50 45
38 Carlos Martinez  75 60 55 55 50
39 Trevor Rosenthal  75 55 50 55 50
40 Matt Barnes  65 60 50 60 55
42 Hyun-Jin Ryu  60 55 55 60 55
43 Andrew Heaney  60 60 55 65 60
44 Julio Teheran  65 45 65 60 55
45 Casey Kelly  60 60 55 60 55
46 Max Fried  65 65 50 60 55
49 Allen Webster  65 55 60 55 50
50 Lance McCullers Jr.   75 65 50 55 50
54 Noah Syndergaard  65 55 55 60 55
56 Robert Stephenson  75 55 55 55 50
59 Alex Meyer  75 65 55 55 50
62 Taylor Guerrieri  65 60 55 55 50
65 Aaron Sanchez  75 60 50 55 50
66 Kyle Crick  70 60 50 55 50
67 Lucas Giolito  75 65 55 60 55
68 Kyle Gibson  55 60 60 60 55
69 Wily Peralta  70 60 55 55 50
76 Michael Wacha  60 50 65 65 60
78 Luis Heredia  65 60 55 55 50
81 Martin Perez  60 55 60 55 50
82 Tony Cingrani  60 40 60 55 50
83 Arodys Vizcaino  70 70 50 60 55
85 Yordano Ventura  75 60 55 55 50
86 Justin Nicolino  50 55 60 65 60
87 James Paxton  65 65 50 55 50
89 Jesse Biddle  60 60 50 55 50
91 Henry Owens  55 50 60 60 55
92 Jake Odorizzi  60 50 55 60 55
93 J.R. Graham  65 60 50 60 55
94 Daniel Corcino  60 55 55 55 50
95 Bruce Rondon  80 55 45 50 45
98 Marcus Stroman  65 70 55 55 50