MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) Pitching Report

In my previous stats report, I discussed some of the standout hitters that got my attention. For this report lets show some pitchers a little love. Expect more stat breakdowns moving forward as the season heats up. The report was ran July 1. 

I wanted to show the pitchers that have a high K/9 rate with a low walk rate. There are some other good arms playing right now but their walk rates are high. Max Meyer is included because of his high ground ball rate. 

Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray - Invest Now

One affordable pitching prospect that is a good deal right now is Josiah Gray. He was originally drafted by the Reds and was traded to the Dodgers last season in the Yasiel Puig trade. His auto's are around $10-15. I think the current price is a huge bargain considering the way prices for prospects have exploded over the past few months. The Dodgers are so good developing talent and I think its a good entry point for a pitcher.

Stats's Don't Lie - May 2019 MLB Prospect Report

Two months of the season is almost complete and I think its a good opportunity to look at some of the numbers. Who is performing at an elite level? Who's not? Check out some of the numbers below. Please note these numbers were recorded through the games played as of May 19th and were taken from Fangraphs.

Hitters

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - 0.197 ISO - One of my favorite hitters. The question is can he hit more home runs.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 12.20% K rate. He also has 16 extra base hits but is repeating a level so this is not a big surprise.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks - 13.50% walk rate. Smith already has 4 home runs on the year. Maybe he is tapping into his power finally. I also love the on base percentage (.333) despite the batting average.

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 21 extra base hits. He is finally getting it going.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - 0.186 ISO. Nick has 14 doubles and 3 triples but I am not sure if that is sustainable but his auto sells for a bargain.

Pitchers

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers - 0.89 BB/9 and 2.39 FIP. Casey is the real deal.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals - 8.86 K/9. Not a bad start and still an affordable buy.

Grayson Rodriguez - Baltimore Orioles - 13.65 K/9. His cards are heating up but you may still find bargains at the card shows.

Hitters I'm Worried About

Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics - 39.20% K rate. Not good.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals - 0.115 ISO. I would like to see more power. The walk rate is good so I am not too worried.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angles - 29.90% K rate. The swing and miss issues have to improve.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets  - 1 Home Run. He is only 18 but I wonder if he can develop power in the future. Still early.

MLB Prospects Off To Hot Starts

The first week of the MILB season is almost complete and so far there have been some notable performances. While there is still a lot of baseball to be played, fast starts are always a positive. For prospects that are struggling there is no reason to panic. Below are a few names that are catching my attention.

Baltimore Orioles P Zac Lowther - I recommended prospectors to buy Lowther a few weeks ago. He was very impressive in his debut and showed some impressive arm talent.

Kansas City Royals OF Khalil Lee - Another breakout prospect candidate that has been mentioned on the site before. He still has work to do but his ability to walk makes me a believer.

Oakland Athletics OF Austin Beck - Beck has all the superstar tools you want but has struggled to make contact so far in his young career. So far this season he seems to have improved his plate discipline. The sample size is small though. Beck is a long term project.

Minnesota Twins OF Alex Kiriloff - In his return from Tommy John surgery, Alex has already hit two home runs and is back on track to the majors. The window is small to still buy him. I think he will be the Twins top prospect by the end of the season.

Prospects for Cash Breakdown of The 2017 Top 100 Prospects

Recently Baseball America released it's top 100 prospect list. BA has a proven record of providing the best scouting reports and tool grades in the industry. Using their Top 100 2017 Prospects List, here are the toolsiest prospects, with ratings from 80 (Elite) down to 20 (Poor) based on the scouting scale. The big takeaway this year is that a ton of pitchers have highly rated tools but there are not too many hitters with 70/80 grade hit tools. I expect prices for highly graded hitters to be at a premium this year.

80 Ratings

Alex Reyes - Fastball
Riley Pint - Fastball
Franciasco Mejia - Arm
Michael Kopech - Fastball
Jorge Mateo - Speed
Matt Chapman -Arm

70 Ratings


Andrew Benintendi - Hit
Yoan Moncada - Speed, Arm
Alex Reyes - Curveball
Cody Bellinger - Power, Fielding
Amed Rosario - Fielding
Ozzie Albies - Hit, Speed
Victor Robles - Speed
Eloy Jimenez -Power
Francis Martes - Fastball, Curveball
Anderson Espinoza - Fastball, Changeup
Mitch Keller - Fastball
Tyler Glasnow - Fastball
Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Power
Manuel Margot - Fielding
Yadier Alvarez - Fastball
Reynaldo Lopez - Fastball
Josh Hader - Fastball
Jorge Alfaro - Arm
Jason Groome - Fastball
Hunter Renfroe - Power, Arm
Matt Manning - Fastball
Albert Almora - Fielding
Carson Kelly - Fielding
Sixto Sanchez - Fastball
A.J. Puk - Fastball
Jharel Cotton - Changeup
Delvin Perez - Speed
James Kaprielian - Fastball
Aaron Judge - Power
Cal Quantrill - Changeup
Dylan Cease - Fastball
Justin Dunn - Fastball

Pitchers with a 60 or better control grade 
Mitch Keller
Mike Soroka

Pitchers Whose 3 Best Pitches Total 185+

3 Best Tools	185+
Martes	195
Reyes	210
Kopech	195
Espinoza	200
Pint	200
Cotton	180

Hitters Whose Hit + Power Tools Total 120+
 

Hit+Power	120+
Moncada	120
Meadows	120
Bellinger	130
Jimenez	130
Rodgers	120
Devers	120
Tucker	120
Guerrero	130
Rutherford	120
Collins	120