MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) - Good Hitters

In this edition of Stats Don't Lie, I wanted to see who were the best hitters this season. When I run this report, batting average is not really a factor. The goal is to looks for hitters with high walk rates, good strikeout rates and power potential. Check out the list below.

Name              2B              3B               HR          BB%          K%            ISO         BB/K Royce Lewis 29 0 10 8.50% 15.10% 0.161 0.56 Isaac Paredes 20 2 13 10.10% 15.10% 0.185 0.67 Jeter Downs 22 2 11 9.60% 19.70% 0.154 0.49 Gavin Lux 23 7 12 10.40% 16.90% 0.199 0.61 Carter Kieboom 24 0 13 10.30% 19.60% 0.162 0.52 Jahmai Jones 14 7 9 12.80% 19.80% 0.141 0.64 Seth Beer 11 0 7 10.80% 15.40% 0.194 0.70 Daulton Varsho 10 4 9 9.60% 18.50% 0.196 0.52 Kyle Tucker 24 2 14 9.70% 19.20% 0.208 0.51 Ke'Bryan Hayes 27 6 6 10.90% 15.70% 0.167 0.69 Bryan Reynolds 15 1 5 12.10% 19.40% 0.152 0.63

* Min of 175 Plate Appearances

* Age range was 23 or younger

Takeaways

Ke'Bryan Hayes - Still a bargain bin buy. Scouts are skeptical that he can develop power.

Issac Paredes, Daulton Varsho & Carter Kieboom - All need a Chrome auto.

Jeter Downs - Still affordable and a strong buy.

Gavin Lux - Great bounceback season.

Jahmai Jones - Still a strong buy for me.

Seth Beer - I hope he is in 2018 Bowman Draft.

Early 2018 Bowman Draft Prospects to Target

The release of 2018 Bowman Draft was just announced and while a full checklist will be released at a later date, I have already targeted a few players. Keep and eye on Jonathan India and Alec Bohm. Third base prospects who are selected high are safer than most players. Both are college bats so the path to the majors will be hopefully faster. It will be interesting to see how both perform in short season ball.

Contact In Baseball Is Still King and Strikeouts Do Matter

If you are a reader of the site and have read my previous recommendations I am sure you have noticed a trend. Contact matters when I am searching for prospects to invest in. Yes I know we are still in the moneyball era and I am well aware that strikeouts don't matter. Trust me strikeouts do matter. Especially in the minors and playoff baseball. A number of prospects have inflated prices due to huge home run totals but strikeout in 30% of their at bats. If there are cases where I think a player can cut down on the strikeouts I will be sure to let the readers know. Keep following for more updates as the season goes on.

Could Cristian Pache's Bowman Auto Reach Ronald Acuna Prices?

When 2018 Bowman Baseball was released one of my favorite prospects in the product was Cristian Pache. I thought his prices would be reasonable after release but I was 100% wrong. His autographs were immediately on the high end. I think the main reason is because he made a few top 100 lists despite not being a lock to have power. The Braves have been working with him on his swing and he has five home runs on the year. Not to mention he is already an elite defender. It seems his card prices are only going to go up. In my previous article regarding Senzel I said it is OK to take risk. After review, I noticed a big difference between Senzel's situation and Pache's. The Reds rebuild seems to be taking longer than expected while the Braves are playing well and are loaded on the farm. Cristian Pache may be a year or two away but the time to buy is now if your budget allows.

Nick Senzel Out For The Season - Prospecting Advice

Today the Cincinnati Reds announced that Nick Senzel will be out for the year with a hand injury. The news is unfortunate as he was on fire the last ten games and a promotion to the Reds was imminent. I have said this multiple times on the blog that injuries are one of the few reasons investing in high end prospects is a big risk. Every year in baseball a high end prospect gets hurt and collectors feel the pain. Don't get me wrong its OK to take risk but sometimes the cost is not worth it. In Senzel's case he was one of the safest prospects in the minors far as talent is concerned but was high priced as soon as his auto came and had previously missed time. Due to the injury his prices could drop. It would be best practice to hold on to what you have unless you can make a profit. 

Austin Beck's and Pavin Smith's Stocks Are Not Trending Down

Sam Dykstra at MILB.com posted an article discussing the 2017 MLB Draft and the performance of certain prospects. I was surprised to see that he stated Austin Beck and Pavin Smith's stocks were trending down. Austin Beck tore his ACL while in high school and while he did struggle in short season ball, he is still 19 and is playing better. He was known to be a project when he was drafted. Pavin Smith is only batting .214 but his K rate and walk rate are exceptional and the power numbers are acceptable despite being in a hitter friendly league. I think sometimes we are not patient with the development of these players as they adjust to pro ball.

MILB Article by Sam Dykstra

Pittisburgh Pirates 3B/SS Oneil Cruz is Under the Radar

One prospect that is a bargain bin and should not be forgotten is Oneil Cruz. He was traded to the Pirates last season from the Dodgers and is still only 19. So far this season he has hit 8 HR's to go with 11 doubles and 5 triples. I would like to see his strikeout rate go down but so far I am very impressed with him this season.

Link to stats via FanGraphs

Los Angeles Dodgers OF Alex Verdugo - Buy, Sell or Hold

The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently next to last in their division and just optioned Alex Verdugo back down to Triple A after a cup of coffee in the Majors. I understand the move due to Yasiel Puig returning from injury. Verdugo is one of my favorite prospects and has the plus bat you need in a current strikeout or home run league. At this moment I would currently hold his auto's. The market is now flooded with people selling. In my opinion I think he stays with the Dodgers and eventually comes back up to the 40 man roster. I don't believe they would trade him (especially if they are out of the playoff race) but I am watching closely. If you can make a profit by all means sell but I making the bet that he is in the Dodgers future plans.

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie)

A full month of the season has passed and sample sizes are starting to be large enough to run my first Stats Don't Lie report of the year. The main focus of this report is to find prospects who have undervalued Bowman Chrome autographs. When I run this report I am looking for hitters with good walk rates combined with manageable K rates. In addition, I am looking for average to above average isolated slugging percentage. The goal is to look for hitters who make contact and hit for decent power. For this report I have added a few players who don't fit the criteria but should be mentioned. Please note the season is still young so these numbers should be taken into account but pitchers will adjust accordingly.

Any notable numbers highlighted in red should be monitored and numbers highlighted in blue are positive signs of good performance.

Name Team              PA         BB%          K%            ISO Stuart Fairchild Reds (A) 133 13.50% 23.30% 0.130 Ernie Clement Indians (A) 137 11.70% 9.50% 0.092 Hoy Jun Park Yankees (A+) 122 18.00% 18.90% 0.104 Jeter Downs Reds (A) 145 9.00% 22.10% 0.125 Dylan Carlson - - - 113 15.00% 17.70% 0.147 Juan Yepez - - - 123 8.10% 14.60% 0.155 Will Benson Indians (A) 125 20.00% 25.60% 0.237 Khalil Lee Royals (A+) 137 17.50% 25.50% 0.138 Luis Alexander Basabe White Sox (A+) 131 16.00% 26.00% 0.266 Demi Orimoloye Brewers (A) 125 8.00% 18.40% 0.155 Daulton Varsho Diamondbacks (A+) 122 10.70% 18.90% 0.179 Jalen Miller Giants (A+) 150 6.70% 16.00% 0.168 TJ Friedl Reds (A+) 148 16.20% 14.20% 0.108 Daniel Johnson Nationals (AA) 146 6.80% 21.20% 0.115 Peter Alonso Mets (AA) 138 14.50% 18.10% 0.295 Kacy Clemens - - - 140 20.00% 19.30% 0.324 Cavan Biggio Blue Jays (AA) 119 15.10% 26.10% 0.392 Matt Thaiss Angels (AA) 137 8.80% 21.20% 0.203 Cedric Mullins Orioles (AA) 140 5.70% 13.60% 0.214 Ryan Howard Giants (AA) 125 5.60% 11.20% 0.106 David Fletcher Angels (AAA) 152 7.20% 4.60% 0.252
My Analysis
Stuart Fairchild - Bargain bin buy that has showed flashes of power which is why the strikeout rate is a little high.         Ernie Clement - A prospect to keep an eye on. The signs of power are not there at the moment. Hoy Jun Park - Park will not hit for much pop but I love the Yankees system right now. Worth a buy. Jeter Downs - One of my favorite prospects but can the power improve? Dylan Carlson - Carlson is a buy. His Bowman auto is still very affordable and I think he will continue to improve. He is turning the corner after a rough season last year. Juan Yepez - Another Cardinal who I liked when he was signed by the Braves. I recommended that prospectors watch him and he has now been upgraded to a buy. Scouts worry that he cannot make consistent contact. This season is a big one for him to prove them wrong. Will Benson & Khalil Lee - I like both prospects but they are also projects. High risk/reward but both take walks which is why I have taken a small position. The contact must improve and that is my main concern. Luis Alexander Basabe - Impressive so far and still a bargain buy. The strikeout rate is high but I am watching closely.  Demi Orimoloye - Demi does not have a Bowman auto but his early performance is showing he might be turning the corner. Impressive athlete. Daulton Varsho - If Varsho had a Chrome auto, he would be a strong buy.  Jalen Miller - Bargain bin buy who is repeating a level. I am not sure he can keep up the power surge though so don't go too crazy.  TJ Friedl - Love him as a prospect but he may be only a fourth outfielder. Daniel Johnson - Trending up and is currently a bargain bin buy. He has great ability but is still putting it together.  Peter Alonso - I told you to buy him here. The window has closed. Kacy Clemens - Still a bargain bin buy for me. Impressive start so far but is an older prospect.  Cavan Biggio - I told you to buy him here. Power numbers are there but the K rate needs to come down.  Matt Thaiss - One of my favorite prospects that is hitting for some decent power this year. Still a bargain. Cedric Mullins - Like him but Baltimore is bad and I would only buy for bargain bin prices (No more than $5-10). Ryan Howard & David Fletcher - Both are older bargain bin prospects who could possibly help their teams this year. Fletcher has been incredible so far this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers 2B/SS Gavin Lux Trending Up

After a rough 2017, Gavin Lux seems to be figuring it out. I recommend him as a strong buy back in 2017. He has impressed with a 15% walk and strikeout rate and has already hit 10 doubles. The potential for more power is still there and I would not be surprised to see him continue his success A+ ball.