Spring Training and Prospect Performance - Does It Matter?

Spring Training is wrapping up and prospects are headed to Minor League camp. I noticed a number of prospects had really good camps this year and showed off a number of tools and abilities. Should prospectors take these performances seriously? In my opinion good performances should be noted but not taken too seriously. Spring Training for a majority of the players attending is an extended Major League tryout. The pitching quality is not the most elite and the hitters are not facing the best competition on a daily basis.

2 MLB Prospects Who Will Move Quickly In The Minors

Pavin Smith and Keston Hirua are two members of the 2017 Draft class who posses above average hitting skills. Most reports expect Keston to have above average power and Pavin Smith to eventually come into his power last. Prices are a little on the high end for both but the hitting skills are so good the potential for prices to explode this season are likely. I have provided a few additional thoughts below for each player.

Milwaukee Brewers 2B - Keston Hirua - Reports have stated that Keston's elbow is fully healed. Scouts worry about his defense but the bat is so good it will become a non factor. You may see him in the Majors this year and I expect him to move quickly. Milwaukee Brewers prospects usually do not sell but I think Keston is a special player. For a Brewer prospect, his cards are in high demand. The best time to buy is now.

Arizona Diamondbacks 1B - Pavin Smith - Similar to Keston, Smith has above average hitting ability and walked more than he struck out during the 2017 season. He is a lock to be the replacement for Paul Goldschimdt in 2019 and should move quickly. The main issue scouts have is the power potential. I am taking the gamble that he will develop power last 

A.J. Puk Shining In Spring Training

One of my favorite pitching prospects, A.J. Puk is having an impressive spring. He has added a few pitches to his arsenal and arrived to camp in great shape. He is clearly the best pitcher the A's have and his Bowman auto can still be bought for around $15. It is not too late to invest in a future stud.

Justin Williams - Tampa Bay Rays OF - Breakout Prospect Canidate

It's a good feeling when you find an under the radar prospect with a track record of making adjustments each season. Justin Williams has played 5 minor league seasons and is only 22 years of age. In 2017, Williams made multiple adjustments at AA Montgomery and raised his walk rate to an impressive 9% while cutting down on strikeouts. Not to mention he mashed 21 doubles, 3 triples and 14 homers. After doing some research online it seems that prices are still very affordable. EBay does not have much on sale which is a sign of people buying and holding until the season starts. I would suggest digging around at local card shows and set up alerts for any new sales of his Bowman Chrome auto. I think Williams will continue to improve. Scouts love his overall makeup and hitting ability.

Stats Don't Lie - 2017 Final Report Highlights

Stats are big part of my prospect analysis and this season I would like to share more numbers with my readers. All of the hitters listed below finished the season with a walk rate above 8%, a K rate below 20% and an .ISO above .140. The basis of the report shows hitters who have a great chance of success as they move up the ladder. Keep in mind this is only for the 2017 season and some players may have played across multiple levels. More names could of been added but I only wanted to focus on players with Bowman Chrome Auto's.

Houston Astros - Ronnie Dawson - STRONG bargain bin recommendation. He has to cut down on the K rate to make it to the Majors.

New York Yankees - Nick Solak  - A Yankee prospect that has been overshadowed. Decent pop and a good eye at the plate. Worth a buy.

Cincinnati Reds - Jeter Downs - Breakout prospect candidate. Very impressive first season in the Minors.

Toronto Blue Jays - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Stud

Tortonto Blue Jays - Bo Bichette - Stud

Cincinnati Reds - Nick Senzel - I think he will grow into power and hit 20-25 home runs annually.

Miami Marlins - Lewis Brinson - Will finally get his shot but can he stay healthy.

Boston Red Sox - Rafael Devers - Stud

Toronto Blue Jays - Reese McGuire - On the 40 man roster.

Baltimore Orioles - D.J. Stewart - Scouts are skeptical but his auto is nowhere to be found on EBay. Interesting.

Tampa Bay Rays - Jake Bauers - Nice prospect but not sure if I would buy. Prices are a little out of range for me.

Philadelphia Phillies - J.P. Crawford - Nice prospect with good defense but the time to buy was when he was struggling in AAA.

Prospects Who Need A Chrome Auto

While we all wait for the 2018 Bowman Checklist to be finalized check out the names below. The prospects listed are on my wishlist to sign a Bowman Chrome card this year. 

Washington Nationals - Carter Kieboom - Exciting prospect with multiple tools.

Minnesota Twins -Akil Badoo - Good prospect still who is still growing into his power potential.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Daulton Varsho - Rare catcher prospect that I like. Impressive first season in A ball.

St Louis Cardinals - Carson Kelly - Another catching prospect that I like. Expect to see him in the Majors this year.

New York Yankees 2B/SS Hoy Jun Park - Bargain Bin

I was running some numbers a few days ago and noticed Hoy Jun Park had an under the radar season. What I love about Park is his walk rate and ability to get on base. His batting average was around .250 for the season but he showed signs of power with 12 doubles, 6 triples and 7 home runs. Base autographs are selling for under five dollars. For that price I think buying a few is a good move. I think Park will take a big step this year and has double digit home run potential.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr's Bowman Chrome Autograph Is A Bargain

Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both released their top 100 prospect lists this week and ranked Vladimir Guerrero Jr in their top 5. After reading various articles and scouting reports, there is a consensus within the baseball community that Vlad Jr possess an 80 grade hit tool and 70 grade power. Tools at this level translate to a high batting average with the ability to hit 30 or more home runs annually. Jim Callis from MLB pipeline even compared him to Miguel Cabrera which immediately put me on high alert. The only reason why he is not the number one prospect is because he does not possess multiple tools like Ronald Acuna or Shohei Ohtani. His 2016 Bowman Chrome Autograph prices are around $250-$300 for base and $400 for a refractor. If you have the means I would consider buying a graded version of this card. I strongly believe the returns will be off the charts. Remember you only need one.

Austin Beck is the Next Oakland A's Superstar

One of my favorite prospects in 2017 Bowman Chrome Draft is Austin Beck. Drafted 6th overall by the Oakland Athletics in the 2017 MLB Draft, Beck has some of the best overall tools in the draft class and is the true definition of a high risk prospect. His hit tool will take time to develop but if it does he will become a star. After reviewing pricing trends over the last few weeks, I believe his cards are currently overpriced and will cost you around $40 a base auto. In my opinion, the main reason is because he is a high draft pick and has been covered by major publications. If Beck was drafted in the second round prices would be half of what they are now. Overall, I am making a small investment in Beck if I can buy a base auto around $25. I expect dips in performance during the adjustment to professional baseball and will buy when others are selling low due to being impatient. Any purchases will be a long term hold but I strongly feel a big return will happen in the future.

The State of MLB Baseball Prospecting In 2018

As we prepare for a new baseball season, taking a look at the overall state of prospecting, baseball and the hobby is needed if not mandatory. In my honest opinion baseball and prospecting have never been better. Here are a few reasons why.

1. Social Media - It has never been easier to follow a prospect on a day to day basis. Most if not all players have accounts on Twitter and Instagram. YouTube provides scouting videos and interviews.

2. The MLB and Topps Relationship - Prospectors may have issues with various checklists when they are released but Topps has done a great job. I don't see this relationship ever breaking up and Topps continues to release the best on card autographs on the market.

3. Data - Access to advanced statistics has made the prospecting process very fun if not easier. A number of sites have emerged that provide all the information you need to analyze a prospect.

4. Media Coverage - From Blogs to Podcasts, access to discussions and other opinions have never been more available. In addition, the Futures Game and MLB Draft continue to improve their broadcast. You can even watch the Arizona Fall League now!

Are there concerns? Of course there are. The Hobby Shops are slowly being taken over buy the online stores which makes buying cards harder since you are looking at photos and scans. The positive is that card shows are still very active and provide an alternative.