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Saturday, May 14, 2016

How a Prospector Deals With PED Suspensions

This week Raul Mondesi Jr was suspended 50 games for testing positive for clenbuterol, an anabolic substance. If you had stock in Raul I would suspect that you are upset right now. A major league debut or promotion to AAA was right around the corner. So what should holders of Raul's auto's do next? In this case the best option would be to HOLD. Selling at this point would result in a loss in my opinion. According to the reports, MILB was going to issue a 80 game ban but Raul was able to negotiate a lighter punishment since he provided the source of the banned substance (cold medicine). It seems that it was an honest mistake but we can never be sure with these suspensions. Youth is on his side so if he comes back and puts this behind him profits can still be made. For prospectors who currently do not hold, this might be an opportunity to purchase some auto's at a discount price. Overall, this is just another reason why I try to avoid high end prospects. The impact on profits could be devastating depending on the situation.
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Sunday, May 8, 2016

2016 Bowman Baseball Autographs - Prospects To Buy

2016 Bowman Baseball has been released and here are some names that prospectors should consider. If you want to know my philosophy on how I choose these prospects, please read my previous posts analyzing 2015 Bowman Draft and 2014 Bowman Draft. Overall there were not too many choices that got my attention outside of the obvious high end guys (Moncada, Bregman, Robles). Please make sure to watch Ebay and other secondary markets closely for prices. I expect cases are still being ripped open so prices should normalize out over the next few weeks.


Seattle Mariners - Tyler O'Neill - I have to admit I never heard of this kid before this season started but he is putting up some good numbers in Double A as a 20 year old. 6HR/.324 Avg/ .945 OPS. I will be watching closely to see if he improves on his BB/K. Autos can be purchased for $10-$15.


Philadelphia Phillies - Jhailyn Ortiz - Ortiz has not played a game of pro ball yet but his auto's are still selling for $10-$15. Why? Well according to the scouting reports this kid has some impressive power. At full maturity most scouts expect him to hit 25 homers annually while playing 1st base. I would suggest carefully monitoring prices as well as his progress before purchasing.


Stay tuned for Part 2 in the next few days.
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2016 Bowman Baseball Autograph Checklist With Links to Ebay



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Colorado Rockies David Dahl - Power Surge?

One of my favorite prospects is putting up some impressive power numbers in Double A (8 HR). After dealing with injuries the last few seasons it looks like David Dahl is finally healthy. I understand that Dahl is choosing power over strikeouts but I still love him as a prospect. Check out this article where Dahl discusses his new approach at the plate to ease your worries. I still rate him as a strong buy.


Link to MILB Stats


Link to Auto's on Ebay
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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Prospect Case Study - Trevor Story (SS, Colorado Rockies)

If you have been following the first few weeks of the MLB season the biggest story (no pun intended) is Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. Story has been discussed on this blog as far back as 2013 when he was a bargain bin selection. Now his cards are going through the roof as he puts up record breaking numbers. I had a nice stash of Trevor Story that I sold for a profit a while back but those numbers seem small compared to the prices I have seen on EBay lately. So what is the lesson that can be learned? Patience. Being patient is key to being a good prospector. Prospects have ups and downs on their road to the majors so holding a prospect may seem painful at times but can be rewarding if you can hold out. This is always on a case by case basis. If you have a chance to take a profit by all means take it but when anomalies occur having a short memory helps too.
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Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Tyler Stephenson Scouting Report - Cincinatti Reds

Basic Info: Birthdate: 08/16/1996
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6-4/225
Position: C
Team: Cincinnati Reds
Card: 2015 Bowman Chrome Draft
Recent Pricing:
Base Auto: $7 - $10 Refractor: $10-$20 

2015 Stats (Rookie Ball): .268/.352/.712, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 28 Runs, 194 AB

Scouting Report:
When you analyze the talent in the major and minor leagues, the catching position is not as deep as other positions on the diamond. Tyler Stephenson is one of the few catching prospects I like in baseball today.

Stephenson was taken by the Reds 11th overall in the 2015 draft. There was even rumors that he could go #1 overall. Why do I like him? Well one reason is that for a kid being drafted out of high school his hit tool is above average. Scouts speculate that Stephenson shows enough raw power to hit 20 home runs in a season to go along with an advanced hitting approach. Baseball America graded his hit tool very high (120 total) which is a great sign for a young player out of high school.   

Verdict: Strong Buy 

Link to MILB Stats

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Monday, March 7, 2016

A Prospector's Breakdown of The 2016 Top 100 Prospects

Recently Baseball America released it's top 100 prospect list. Using their Top 100 2016 Prospects List, here are the toolsiest prospects, with ratings from 80 (Elite) down to 20 (Poor) based on the scouting scale.

Read More »
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Sunday, February 7, 2016

Corey Seager Named Baseball's Top Prospect By MLB.com

MLB.com recently named Corey Seager the top prospect in baseball. Immediately after the announcement was made his card prices rose at an exponential rate. A price rise of this nature is common when the top prospect is announced before the season starts. I expect the rise in prices to continue as other publications announce Seager as their top prospect (Baseball America). For prospectors who have the budget, this might be a good time to invest in other top 10 prospects that prices are still reasonable (Crawford, Buxton,Giolito). Who do you guys think will be No.1 in 2017?
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Sunday, December 27, 2015

2015 Bowman Chrome Draft Baseball Prospects To Buy

2015 Bowman Draft has been released and here are some names that prospectors should consider. If you want to know my philosophy on how I choose these prospects, please read my previous post analyzing 2014 Bowman Draft. This draft was not a strong as previous drafts but I expect some additional names to emerge as the season starts in April.


White Sox Prospect Carson Fulmer
His auto's range from $20-25 dollars but are worth the buy. He struck out 26 batters in only 23 IP in his first pro season. The White Sox plan to take it slow with Carson which is surprising compared to previous history (Sale, Rodon) but I would not be concerned.


Rangers Prospect Dillon Tate
Autos range from $10-15. Dillon does not have a huge sample size to analyze but I love everything that I see and read about him. Keep an eye on him but don't hesitate to buy some autos once he starts the season in April.

Giants Phil Bickford
Phil struck out 32 batters in only 22 IP in his first taste of pro ball. His autos can be obtained for under $10.


Braves Austin Riley
Loved the power numbers that Austin put up in his first pro season out of high school. The only question I have is if he can cut down on the strikeouts. Autos are slowly creeping up to $30 so a wait and see approach may be necessary before investing.


Tigers Christin Stewart
Stewart put up great power numbers in his first season of pro ball but his strikeout to walk ratio is a concern. Base autos can be purchased for under $15. Even with the strikeouts the cost may be worth buying a few. The scouts love his bat.


Keep an eye on the power numbers for the prospects below.


Brewers Trent Clark - Loved the strikeout to walk ratio in Trent's first season out of high school. The power numbers are not there for me to purchase just yet but I will monitor his progress. His advanced feel for hitting gets my attention immediately. The Brewers do not have a solid history of developing hitters or pitchers so lets wait to see how he develops.

Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes - Another prospect that I like but the power numbers were not there in his first season. Keep an eye on him.

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Sunday, November 22, 2015

Gary Sanchez Scouting Report (New York Yankees, C)

Basic Info: Birthdate: 12/2/1992
Bats/Throws: R/R Height/Weight: 6-2/230 
Position: C Signed: Dominican Republic, 2009
Team: New York Yankees Card: 2010 Bowman Chrome Prospects
Recent Pricing: Base Auto: $20 - $30 Refractor: $40  Blue Refractor /150:  $100  Gold Refractor /50:  $200   

Scouting Report:
Gary Sanchez signed with the Yankees in 2009 and has developed to be one of the best overall prospects in the game. We are talking about a catcher with the potential for a .280 AVG & 25HR if everything clicks.

Gary had a strong showing in the 2015 Arizona Fall League and now has the attention of the baseball community. His strong performance is an indicator that he can play against top level talent. Gary is still developing as a catcher, but that is not a big issue. It is common that catchers take more time to learn their position. Some scouts will bring up his disciplinary issues but that also is not a major concern. The bat is legit.

Principal owner of the Yankees Hal Steinbrenner recently was interviewed prior to the upcoming hot stove season and he expressed his desire to develop youth and curtail spending. I strongly believe that the Yankees are starting to change their approach and will focus on developing talent vs. buying it. In my opinion this means that a talent like Gary has a strong chance to remain a Yankee and prices will remain strong if he continues to stay hot.

Verdict: STRONG BUY based on the $20-25 base auto price. Even though 2010 Bowman Chrome has quality issues (scratches), I would still take a shot at buying a few.    

Link to MILB Stats

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