Scouting MLB Prospects in Triple A

The major league baseball being juiced may not be breaking news for most fans but the change has made the ability to scout prospects difficult. Triple A teams have starting using the ball this season and now home run totals have spiked. With these changes I suggest taking Double A stats more seriously when it comes to measuring power potential as home runs in the majors and Triple A have been devalued.

Adapt or Die - MLB Prospecting Tactics

At Prospects for Cash, it is always a good thing to look at the state of prospecting and the overall health of the market. Tactics change all the time and philosophies evolve. It is clear that the market is trending up. I explain this in my previous article.

Due to the changes, here are a few thoughts on how I feel about prospecting as we move forward in 2019.

1.Group Breaks and Case Breaks - It may be a good time to consider participating in these breaks as buying a slot on the front end for a prospect could mean big money on the back end as prices rise.  

2. Timing - I am still sticking to the 20% rule. If I can make a profit I am OK moving on. Timing is everything now. Your choice will all depend on your investment. You can still make money on a player before they make the Majors.

3. Player Positions - Positions still matter but not as much anymore. We know the risks with pitchers but I used to avoid buying catchers or second baseman. Catchers do take time to develop but lately there have been good ones to invest in. If a player can play the price will show it.

4. Age - Age still matters. A 19 yr old prospect still has the room for potential while a 24 year old prospect has reached his ceiling.

5. Power and Contact - It seems with the new baseballs flying out the park the power numbers are tricky to analyze. Contact is still king. Walk rates matter. 

6. State of the Hobby - Overall the hobby is heating up and prospecting will continue to pick up steam. Keep an eye on the trends. Or just follow me for the best info on the web. Could supply increase? Is a correction in play down the line. Stay tuned.

7. Buying Retail over Hobby - Another emerging subject. Buying retail blaster boxes of Bowman is a good play. I am still surprised boxes sell for $20.You could easily resale for double the price! The tough part is that you have to really know when they hit your local stores. People know the vendors so sometimes the boxes never hit the shelves.

Are We In A Baseball Card Bull Market?

The mission of this site is to give readers the best analysis on baseball prospects and the Bowman baseball card market. Occasionally the Majors are discussed but I prefer to keep my focus on the future of the game. It is also my job to inform readers of potential trends and pitfalls. Bowman baseball autograph card prices have spiked since the release of 2018 Bowman Draft. Prospects who have not taken a swing in the minors or past rookie ball are selling for big profits. I have seen this trend emerge not just in baseball but in the entire card market. A bull market is forming (or has already started) and the potential of a bubble forming should be noted. My concern is due to the spike in demand the chance of supply increasing becomes more likely. One positive is the Bowman autograph is held in high regard due to having an on-card signatures and history. Maybe buying more color will be a good hedge if supply increases but that has yet to be determined. In the future months and possibly years, timing will be key as you are prospecting. I wanted to give readers a heads up as the market seems to be changing. In addition, I have also provided some links with good information. Thanks for reading and a special thanks to Brandon for motivating me to write about this.
 
Bull Market Definition via Investopedia

Gary Vaynerchuck Predicts the Sports Card Bull Market

Starts at the 1:30 min mark and ends around to about the 6 minute mark. I also read he will be attending the National Convention which will only increase demand as he has a ton of followers.

Recommended Reading

The Great Baseball Card Bubble - Slate Magazine
Why Your Sports Cards from the Early 90s Are Worthless - Cardboard Connection

Will history repeat itself? If you agree or disagree, I want to hear from you. Feel free to email or contact me on Twitter.

The Number One Resource for Every Baseball Prospector

Every year I make an effort to purchase the Baseball America Handbook. The team does a great job with analyzing the top 30 prospects for every MLB team. Scouting reports, tool grades and stats are included for multiple players. I would highly suggest you add it to your list of resources. It has helped me make better investments over the years.

Purchase the 2019 Baseball America Handbook via Ebay

Baseball America's 2017 Midseason Top 100 Prospects Update

Over the All Star break Baseball America released its update of the top 100 prospects. I have provided some analysis on some of the names that received my attention. 

101. Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr - A prospect that was on my radar but the swing and miss bothered me. The power is real but while baseball has embraced the strikeout I have not. I still rate him as a BUY with the hope that he cuts down on the strikeouts.

97.   Angles OF Jordon Adell - Hopefully Adell will be in 2017 Draft in December. Scouts worry about his swing and miss issues.

96.   Red Sox 3B Michael Chavis - Nice prospect putting up solid numbers in AA so far. I would rate him as a STRONG BUY.
 
93.   Indians 1B Bobby Bradley - 16HR's so far in AA with a respectable K%. He is coming along well and I would buy an auto or two.

92.   Phillies SS J.P. Crawford - Crawford has struggled a little in AAA. If you have any auto's HOLD.

91.   Rockies 1B/3B Ryan McMahon - I recommended Ryan in the past but unless he is a superstar Rockies players don't sell well.

90.   Blue Jays SS Lourdes Gurriel -Watching him closely as he returns from injury.
 
83.   White Sox RHP Dylan Cease - Nice prospect joining a stacked White Sox farm system. I expect prices to remain at the same level.

71.   Braves SS Kevin Maitan - Has not played yet but cards are already on the high end.

69.   Phillies 1B Ryan Hoskins - Needs a Chrome auto.

57.   Cardinals RHP Jack Flaherty  - Loved him since he was drafted and his stuff keeps getting better. I rate him as a BUY.

52.   Phillies 2B Scott Kingery - Legit prospect who has made great adjustments. His Bowman Auto is on the high end.

51.   Cardinals C Carson Kelly - A great catching prospect who plays great defense and will hit for a good average with pop.

50.   Mets 1B Dominic Smith - Underrated prospect in my opinion. Auto's are still at a decent price considering the market. Very impressive season so far.

46.   Phillies OF Mickey Moniak - Love the talent but can he hit for power?

45.   White Sox OF Luis Robert - Hopefully Robert is in 2017 Bowman Chrome

44.   Blue Jays SS Bo Bichette - One of the hottest prospects in the minors. Buy if you can afford it. All you need is one.

41.   Braves RHP Kyle Wright - Looking forward to his debut.

40.   Rays LHP/1B Brendan McKay - Brendan seems like a generational talent. I really hope he succeeds playing both ways.

39.   Twins SS Royce Lewis - On fire in rookie ball but don't take those stats too seriously.

34.   Rangers OF Leody Taveras - STRONG BUY - Leody is the current top prospect in the Rangers system. At 18 years old he is producing some good numbers. Don't let the batting average worry you. The K rate is 15% and walk rate is around 8% in A ball. Auto's are under $25.

30.   Reds RHP Hunter Greene - Another generational talent that hopefully will play both ways. I love that he is playing for the Reds.

22.   Pirates OF Austin Meadows - Still battling injuries and the pop has not been there. I'm worried a little but I would HOLD and not sell.

23.   Braves LHP Kolby Allard - Impressive numbers after coming back from injury. I am now a believer.

If you would like my thoughts on any prospect not mentioned on the list or one that did not make the list, leave a comment or reach out to me on Twitter @Prospects4Cash. Thanks!

Still Time to Buy Nick Gordon

Nick Gordon is having a breakout season and prices have not spiked like I thought they would. He has shown increased power and should stay at shortstop. There is still time to invest for a reasonable price. I think he will only improve.

A Rule That Every Prospector Should Follow

On July 4th, an Aaron Judge BGS graded 9.5 purple auto sold for $14,655. This is the highest sale I have seen for an Aaron Judge card. The one rule that I tell any prospector whether they are young or old is "all you need is one". If your budget allows you to buy multiples autos of a player, by all means proceed but if not, one auto is just fine. When 2009 Bowman Draft was released a Mike Trout auto was only $20. When Aaron Judge struggled during his first callup, prices were very affordable. All you need is one.

How a Prospector Deals With PED Suspensions

This week Raul Mondesi Jr was suspended 50 games for testing positive for clenbuterol, an anabolic substance. If you had stock in Raul I would suspect that you are upset right now. A major league debut or promotion to AAA was right around the corner. So what should holders of Raul's auto's do next? In this case the best option would be to HOLD. Selling at this point would result in a loss in my opinion. According to the reports, MILB was going to issue a 80 game ban but Raul was able to negotiate a lighter punishment since he provided the source of the banned substance (cold medicine). It seems that it was an honest mistake but we can never be sure with these suspensions. Youth is on his side so if he comes back and puts this behind him profits can still be made. For prospectors who currently do not hold, this might be an opportunity to purchase some auto's at a discount price. Overall, this is just another reason why I try to avoid high end prospects. The impact on profits could be devastating depending on the situation.