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Showing posts with label Hitting Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hitting Analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

MLB Prospect Statistical Analysis (Stats Don't Lie) Hitting Report

We are officially a month and a half into the season and I ran some reports today to see who is performing well so far. I have to say there are some eye popping stats out there. I have listed some of the names below that have caught my attention. Report was ran on Fangraphs. 

Milwaukee Brewers - Joe Gray Jr. - Joe has 10 homers and 16 extra base hits. Impressive. 

Kansas City Royals - Nick Pratto - Impressive walk rate and a swing changed has improved his power. 11 homers so far.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Andy Pages - Good power numbers. Looking forward to more improvement. 10 homers and 10 XBH. 

San Diego Padres - Robert Hassell III - Only 19 and he is striking out 20% of the time. Very good for a high school draft prospect. 

St. Louis Cardinals - Nolan Gorman - Big improvement here. Power numbers are good but the swing and miss is down. K rate is 25%. 

Arizona Diamondbacks - A.J. Vukovich - 19 year old prospect that has good power potential. 0.193 ISO.

Detroit Tigers - Gage Workman  - Strikeout rate is high but the walk rate is good (15%). Not a ton of home runs but has 13 XBH. 

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Bobby Witt Jr. Hitting Analysis (Kansas City Royals, SS)

Over the past few weeks I have seen discussions on various message boards asking if Bobby Witt Jr. is the real deal. Time will tell but I decided to take a look at his Rookie Ball stats for any clues. I honestly don't take Rookie Ball stats too seriously but when I reviewed his numbers a few interesting things caught my attention. Please note the sample size was not big but I feel strong about my findings. Overall his debut was average but promising.

1. 7.2% walk rate and 19.5% Strikeout Rate - Not a big surprise here. Witt is expected to have some swing and miss to his game. If he can keep his strikeout rate below 20%, he should be in good shape.

2. Line Drive Percentage 19.2%, Ground Ball Percentage 52%, Fly Ball Percentage 28.8% - These batted ball numbers are promising but more data is needed. I like that his line drive rate is around the league average.

3. Batted Ball Direction - Pull 40.5 %, Cent 22.1%, Oppo 37.4% - Witt really hit the ball to the opposite field in his pro debut. I am not sure if that is a sustainable number but it does highlight his gap power to all fields. Unfortunately contact percentages are not available.

Bobby Witt Jr. Rookie Ball Spray Chart (37 Games, 180 PA)







Witt only played 37 games in Rookie Ball but the chart shows a ton of gap power to all fields.















Buy Bobby Witt Jr's Cards via Ebay

Link to Bobby Witt Jr's Stats via Fangraphs

Monday, May 20, 2019

Stats's Don't Lie - May 2019 MLB Prospect Report

Two months of the season is almost complete and I think its a good opportunity to look at some of the numbers. Who is performing at an elite level? Who's not? Check out some of the numbers below. Please note these numbers were recorded through the games played as of May 19th and were taken from Fangraphs.

Hitters

Tyler Freeman - Cleveland Indians - 0.197 ISO - One of my favorite hitters. The question is can he hit more home runs.

LoLo Sanchez - Pittsburgh Pirates - 12.20% K rate. He also has 16 extra base hits but is repeating a level so this is not a big surprise.

Pavin Smith - Arizona Diamondbacks - 13.50% walk rate. Smith already has 4 home runs on the year. Maybe he is tapping into his power finally. I also love the on base percentage (.333) despite the batting average.

Alec Bohm - Philadelphia Phillies - 21 extra base hits. He is finally getting it going.

Nick Allen - Oakland Athletics - 0.186 ISO. Nick has 14 doubles and 3 triples but I am not sure if that is sustainable but his auto sells for a bargain.

Pitchers

Casey Mize - Detroit Tigers - 0.89 BB/9 and 2.39 FIP. Casey is the real deal.

Brady Singer - Kansas City Royals - 8.86 K/9. Not a bad start and still an affordable buy.

Grayson Rodriguez - Baltimore Orioles - 13.65 K/9. His cards are heating up but you may still find bargains at the card shows.

Hitters I'm Worried About

Austin Beck - Oakland Athletics - 39.20% K rate. Not good.

Khalil Lee - Kansas City Royals - 0.115 ISO. I would like to see more power. The walk rate is good so I am not too worried.

Brandon Marsh - Los Angeles Angles - 29.90% K rate. The swing and miss issues have to improve.

Ronny Mauricio - New York Mets  - 1 Home Run. He is only 18 but I wonder if he can develop power in the future. Still early.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Austin Beck's and Pavin Smith's Stocks Are Not Trending Down

Sam Dykstra at MILB.com posted an article discussing the 2017 MLB Draft and the performance of certain prospects. I was surprised to see that he stated Austin Beck and Pavin Smith's stocks were trending down. Austin Beck tore his ACL while in high school and while he did struggle in short season ball, he is still 19 and is playing better. He was known to be a project when he was drafted. Pavin Smith is only batting .214 but his K rate and walk rate are exceptional and the power numbers are acceptable despite being in a hitter friendly league. I think sometimes we are not patient with the development of these players as they adjust to pro ball.

MILB Article by Sam Dykstra

Sunday, April 15, 2018

MLB Prospects Off To Hot Starts

The first week of the MILB season is almost complete and so far there have been some notable performances. While there is still a lot of baseball to be played, fast starts are always a positive. For prospects that are struggling there is no reason to panic. Below are a few names that are catching my attention.

Baltimore Orioles P Zac Lowther - I recommended prospectors to buy Lowther a few weeks ago. He was very impressive in his debut and showed some impressive arm talent.

Kansas City Royals OF Khalil Lee - Another breakout prospect candidate that has been mentioned on the site before. He still has work to do but his ability to walk makes me a believer.

Oakland Athletics OF Austin Beck - Beck has all the superstar tools you want but has struggled to make contact so far in his young career. So far this season he seems to have improved his plate discipline. The sample size is small though. Beck is a long term project.

Minnesota Twins OF Alex Kiriloff - In his return from Tommy John surgery, Alex has already hit two home runs and is back on track to the majors. The window is small to still buy him. I think he will be the Twins top prospect by the end of the season.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Stats Don't Lie - 2017 Final Report Highlights

Stats are big part of my prospect analysis and this season I would like to share more numbers with my readers. All of the hitters listed below finished the season with a walk rate above 8%, a K rate below 20% and an .ISO above .140. The basis of the report shows hitters who have a great chance of success as they move up the ladder. Keep in mind this is only for the 2017 season and some players may have played across multiple levels. More names could of been added but I only wanted to focus on players with Bowman Chrome Auto's.

Houston Astros - Ronnie Dawson - STRONG bargain bin recommendation. He has to cut down on the K rate to make it to the Majors.

New York Yankees - Nick Solak  - A Yankee prospect that has been overshadowed. Decent pop and a good eye at the plate. Worth a buy.

Cincinnati Reds - Jeter Downs - Breakout prospect candidate. Very impressive first season in the Minors.

Toronto Blue Jays - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Stud

Tortonto Blue Jays - Bo Bichette - Stud

Cincinnati Reds - Nick Senzel - I think he will grow into power and hit 20-25 home runs annually.

Miami Marlins - Lewis Brinson - Will finally get his shot but can he stay healthy.

Boston Red Sox - Rafael Devers - Stud

Toronto Blue Jays - Reese McGuire - On the 40 man roster.

Baltimore Orioles - D.J. Stewart - Scouts are skeptical but his auto is nowhere to be found on EBay. Interesting.

Tampa Bay Rays - Jake Bauers - Nice prospect but not sure if I would buy. Prices are a little out of range for me.

Philadelphia Phillies - J.P. Crawford - Nice prospect with good defense but the time to buy was when he was struggling in AAA.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

Prospects for Cash Breakdown of The 2017 Top 100 Prospects

Recently Baseball America released it's top 100 prospect list. BA has a proven record of providing the best scouting reports and tool grades in the industry. Using their Top 100 2017 Prospects List, here are the toolsiest prospects, with ratings from 80 (Elite) down to 20 (Poor) based on the scouting scale. The big takeaway this year is that a ton of pitchers have highly rated tools but there are not too many hitters with 70/80 grade hit tools. I expect prices for highly graded hitters to be at a premium this year.

80 Ratings

Alex Reyes - Fastball
Riley Pint - Fastball
Franciasco Mejia - Arm
Michael Kopech - Fastball
Jorge Mateo - Speed
Matt Chapman -Arm

70 Ratings


Andrew Benintendi - Hit
Yoan Moncada - Speed, Arm
Alex Reyes - Curveball
Cody Bellinger - Power, Fielding
Amed Rosario - Fielding
Ozzie Albies - Hit, Speed
Victor Robles - Speed
Eloy Jimenez -Power
Francis Martes - Fastball, Curveball
Anderson Espinoza - Fastball, Changeup
Mitch Keller - Fastball
Tyler Glasnow - Fastball
Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Power
Manuel Margot - Fielding
Yadier Alvarez - Fastball
Reynaldo Lopez - Fastball
Josh Hader - Fastball
Jorge Alfaro - Arm
Jason Groome - Fastball
Hunter Renfroe - Power, Arm
Matt Manning - Fastball
Albert Almora - Fielding
Carson Kelly - Fielding
Sixto Sanchez - Fastball
A.J. Puk - Fastball
Jharel Cotton - Changeup
Delvin Perez - Speed
James Kaprielian - Fastball
Aaron Judge - Power
Cal Quantrill - Changeup
Dylan Cease - Fastball
Justin Dunn - Fastball

Pitchers with a 60 or better control grade 
Mitch Keller
Mike Soroka

Pitchers Whose 3 Best Pitches Total 185+


3 Best Tools185+
Martes195
Reyes210
Kopech195
Espinoza200
Pint200
Cotton180


Hitters Whose Hit + Power Tools Total 120+
 
Hit+Power120+
Moncada120
Meadows120
Bellinger130
Jimenez130
Rodgers120
Devers120
Tucker120
Guerrero 130
Rutherford120
Collins120