Sunday, April 12, 2015

Success Rate of the Top 100 Prospects in the MLB Over History

Thanks to a great study by Scott McKinney (here), we have a pretty good idea of how successful the Baseball America Top 100 prospects have been in the past.  McKinney uses Major League WAR to ascertain whether a prospect became a bust, a success, or a superior Major League player.

Over the history of the Top 100 Prospects List, he came to the conclusion that these were the success rates of the Top 100 Prospects of the past based on where they were ranked on the list.  A superior player is also considered a success which is why the rows add up to more than 100%.

Top 100 Pitching Prospect Success Rates
Top 100 Pitching Prospect Success Rates

Top 100 Hitting Prospect Success Rates
Top 100 Hitting Prospect Success Rates

What's important to note is that much more hitting prospects becomes successes than pitching prospects, and the success rate also drops off drastically after the Top 20.  It's a really interesting analysis, and notice the anomaly that hitting prospects ranked 71-80 have a 23.1% superior success rate.  Looking at this year's 2015 Top 100 Baseball America Prospect List, I see Jake Lamb in that tier, and it just so happens he's raking this year.  Coincidence?  Probably, but still pretty cool.

We can also say that about 2 out of 5 pitchers that are in the top 20 become successful major leaguers.  This year, in the top 20, there are 6 pitchers (Giolito, Urias, Syndergaard, Rodon, Glasnow, Norris), so if history remains constant, only 2 or 3 of these guys will become successful Major Leaguers while the others will bust.  This is why I do not invest in pitchers.

Of the Top 20 position players, about 3 out of 5 have successful Major League careers.  So, there are 14 hitters in this year's Top 20, which means about 8 or 9 will succeed while 5 or 6 will be busts.  So, of these hitters, who do you think will be the busts?  Bryant, Buxton, Russell, Correa, Seager, Gallo, Pederson, Lindor, Soler, Sano, Crawford, Swihart, Schwarber, Jackson?

1. Kris Bryant 3b Cubs
2. Byron Buxton of Twins
3. Addison Russell ss Cubs
4. Carlos Correa ss Astros
5. Corey Seager ss Dodgers
6. Joey Gallo 3b Rangers
7. Lucas Giolito rhp Nationals
8. Joc Pederson of Dodgers
9. Francisco Lindor ss Indians
10. Julio Urias lhp Dodgers
11. Noah Syndergaard rhp Mets
12. Jorge Soler of Cubs
13. Miguel Sano 3b Twins
14. J.P. Crawford ss Phillies
15. Carlos Rodon lhp White Sox
16. Tyler Glasnow rhp Pirates
17. Blake Swihart c Red Sox
18. Daniel Norris lhp Blue Jays
19. Kyle Schwarber c Cubs
20. Alex Jackson of Mariners
21. Rusney Castillo of Red Sox
22. David Dahl of Rockies
23. Robert Stephenson rhp Reds
24. Jon Gray rhp Rockies
25. Archie Bradley rhp Diamondbacks
26. Braden Shipley rhp Diamondbacks
27. Aaron Sanchez rhp Blue Jays
28. Raul A. Mondesi ss Royals
29. Jameson Taillon rhp Pirates
30. Dalton Pompey of Blue Jays
31. Mark Appel rhp Astros
32. Michael Taylor of Nationals
33. Steve Matz lhp Mets
34. Matt Wisler rhp Padres
35. Luis Severino rhp Yankees
36. Jose Berrios rhp Twins
37. Steven Souza of Rays
38. C.J. Edwards rhp Cubs
39. Aaron Nola rhp Phillies
40. Aaron Blair rhp Diamondbacks
41. Austin Meadows of Pirates
42. Andrew Heaney lhp Angels
43. Jake Thompson rhp Rangers
44. Henry Owens lhp Red Sox
45. Brandon Nimmo of Mets
46. Dilson Herrera 2b Mets
47. Jesse Winker of Reds
48. Dylan Bundy rhp Orioles
49. Reynaldo Lopez rhp Nationals
50. Marco Gonzales lhp Cardinals
51. Alex Reyes rhp Cardinals
52. Tyler Kolek rhp Marlins
53. Aaron Judge of Yankees
54. Jose Peraza 2b Braves
55. Brandon Finnegan lhp Royals
56. Maikel Franco 3b/1b Phillies
57. Yasmany Tomas 3b/of Diamondbacks
58. Raisel Iglesias rhp Reds
59. Eduardo Rodriguez lhp Red Sox
60. Kyle Freeland lhp Rockies
61. Nick Gordon ss Twins
62. Alex Meyer rhp Twins
63. Kevin Plawecki c Mets
64. Josh Bell 1b/of Pirates
65. Trea Turner ss Padres
66. Daniel Robertson ss Rays
67. Jorge Alfaro c Rangers
68. Hunter Harvey rhp Orioles
69. Jeff Hoffman rhp Blue Jays
70. Sean Newcomb lhp Angels
71. Touki Toussaint rhp Diamondbacks
72. Manuel Margot of Red Sox
73. Hunter Renfroe of Padres
74. Grant Holmes rhp Dodgers
75. Kyle Zimmer rhp Royals
76. J.T. Realmuto c Marlins
77. Eddie Butler rhp Rockies
78. Jake Lamb 3b Diamondbacks
79. Stephen Piscotty of Cardinals
80. Michael Conforto of Mets
81. Sean Manaea lhp Royals
82. Brian Johnson lhp Red Sox
83. Billy McKinney of Cubs
84. Willy Adames ss Rays
85. D.J. Peterson 3b/1b Mariners
86. Franklin Barreto ss Athletics
87. Nomar Mazara of Rangers
88. Andrew Susac c Giants
89. Alex Gonzalez rhp Rangers
90. Erick Fedde rhp Nationals
91. A.J. Cole rhp Nationals
92. Tim Anderson ss White Sox
93. Tyrone Taylor of Brewers
94. Orlando Arcia ss/2b Brewers
95. Ryan McMahon 3b/1b Rockies
96. Joe Ross rhp Nationals
97. Reese McGuire c Pirates
98. Amed Rosario ss Mets
99. Rafael Devers 3b Red Sox
100. Spencer Adams rhp White Sox

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