Sunday, April 12, 2015

Javier Baez Scouting Report - 2014 Review (SS, Cubs)

Javier Baez

Profile:

Positions: Shortstop and Second Baseman
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 0", Weight: 190 lb.
Twitter:  @javy23baez
Draft: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 1st round (9th) of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft from Arlington Country Day School (Jacksonville, FL).
Born: 12/1/1992

Javier Baez Stats

Javier Baez eBay Listings




Scouting Report:

Ranked Baseball America #61 prospect after the 2011 season
Ranked Baseball America #16 prospect after the 2012 season
Ranked Baseball America #5 prospect after the 2013 season
Ranked Midwest League #1 prospect in 2012
Ranked Arizona Fall League #1 prospect in 2012
Rated Best Defensive Infielder in the Chicago Cubs system after the 2012 season
Rated Most Exciting Player in the Midwest League in 2012
Rated Best Power Prospect in the Pacific Coast League in 2014
Rated Best Infield Arm in the Pacific Coast League in 2014

Grades: Bat: 60. Power: 65. Speed: 50. Defense: 55. Arm: 65.
2014 Stats (AAA): .260 - 23 HR - 80 RBI - 16 SB - 130 K - 34 BB - 388 AB
2014 Stats (MLB): .169 - 9 HR - 20 RBI - 5 SB - 95 K - 15 BB - 213 AB


Javier Baez struggled mightily at the Major League level after posting monster numbers in the minors.  In 1,216 minor league at bats, Baez compiled 214 runs, 73 doubles, 12 triples, 76 home runs, 238 RBI, and 62 stolen bases for an impressive OPS of .881.  However, he also struck out 350 times, and that K total was brought to new heights when he reached the majors.  In the major leagues, Baez struck out in an abysmal 45% of his at bats.  So what went wrong?

For starters, Baez swung at everything.  This was his swing rate of ALL pitches thrown to him in the MLB last year.  Reddish colors outside of the zone are not good, and Baez swung at high, inside, and low pitches that were out of the zone... frequently.

Javier Baez Swing Rates
Javier Baez Swing Rates


Now of those pitches, he swung at, here are his whiffs per swing.  He whiffed a lot at balls above, below, and outside the zone.

Javier Baez Whiff Rates
Javier Baez Whiff Rates

Baez just couldn't handle these pitches out of the zone, especially breaking balls, shown below.  Here are his whiffs per swing on all breaking balls.  He almost never made contact with a breaking ball below the zone.

Javier Baez Whiffs Per Swing on Breaking Balls
Javier Baez Whiffs Per Swing on Breaking Balls
In all, Baez whiffed on 53.13% of the breaking balls he swung at and 53.85 of the offspeed pitches he swung at.  This is terrible.  On fastballs, he was better, whiffing on 35% of the ones he swung at.

Moving on, it will be extremely important to Baez' future to show improvements in these categories, and as a huge fan, I hope he can do it:

OSwing% - percentage of balls outside of the zone he swings at (we want this to decrease)
OContact% - percentage of balls outside of the zone he swings at and makes contact with
BB Rate - increase
K rate - decrease
SwStr% - decrease
Whiff Rate - decrease
Line Drive % - increase
HR/FB% - stay consistent or increase
SB:CS - we'd like to see efficient basestealing


Javier Baez 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph BGS 9.5 (10 Auto)
Javier Baez 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph BGS 9.5 (10 Auto)

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