Sunday, December 14, 2014

2014 Bowman Draft Prospects To Buy (Part 1)

So, the first step I take whenever a new Bowman Prospects set comes out (2014 Bowman Draft was released this week), is I just simply take a look at what they did in rookie ball.  For pitchers, I believe the biggest indicator of future success is the K:IP ratio.  Simple, but effective.  It signifies dominant stuff.  A low amount of hits against is a nice back-up to that.  ERA means nothing and I don't put too much stock into BB for pitchers in Rookie ball.  These are still kids, not yet pitchers.

For hitters, I look for nice BB:K ratios and extra base hits.  The BB:K ratios tell me the hitter is advanced and has an idea of what he's doing at the plate.  He isn't getting overmatched by the opposing pitcher.  Extra base hits are more important than home runs because many of the doubles and triples translate to home runs in the future as the prospect grows and gets stronger.

So, here are the first 3 of the prospects I found with 2014 Bowman Draft autographs who I like:

Bargain Bin Alert Orioles Brian Gonzalez
His autos range from $4-10, putting him at the low end of the spectrum, yet he K's 36 in 33.2 IP, and held hitters to a .179 average.  He was a third rounder so he might just be overlooked right now.

Astros A.J. Reed
Reed is in the $7-10 category as well, but the dude is built like a linebacker and hit 33 extra base hits in only 249 ABs.  His 30 BB were also good enough to give him an OBP of .375.

Athletics Dillon Overton
Overton is a STRONG BUY. His 53 K in 37 IP are almost as impressive as his 4 BB allowed.  The kid must have pounded the strike zone with unhittable stuff.  His autos are only about $3, probably due to his age (23), but that doesn't mean he has no future.

Stay tuned for more...

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for your analysis. I am getting back into the hobby and want to try my hand at prospecting as well as building a personal collection. Your info is much appreciated.