Thursday, November 6, 2014

Buy Ben Lively (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

I am utterly shocked at the pricing of Ben Lively's NEW Bowman Chrome autos.  When chrome autos drop, all players are typically overpriced at first.  Yet, one of my favorite pitching prospects, is actually UNDERVALUED.  The only explanation could be that it's the offseason but the fact remains, buying Ben Lively could be a very profitable move eventually...

Any way, Lively's autos have been selling in these ranges:
Base: $4 - $6
Refractor /500: $6 - $9
Blue Ref /150:  $25 - $30
Green Ref /75:  $23 - $30
Blue and Black Wave /50:  $30 - $40
Gold /50: $65 - $80
Orange /25:  $100 - $120
And a lot of 2 Ref, 1 Gold BGS 9, 1 Green BGS 9 just sold for: $70... ugh how'd I miss it?

These prices put Lively between low and mid end, which is basically where a scrub catcher who hits 10 HR would sometimes fall.  Are you kidding?

The CAL league.  Yes, we've talked about it many times.  Hitters tear it apart and every stadium plays like Coors Field.  How did Lively do there, you may ask...

10-1, 2.28 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 95 K, 79 IP

That's pretty much impossible in that league.  The next lowest ERA among qualifiers was about a run higher (Seth Streich).

So, Lively got promoted to AA, where his K rate remained, but his walk rate rose to a batter every two innings.  This inflated his ERA to 3.88, which still isn't bad for a first timer in the Southern League.  When he first came up, scouts projected Lively as a mid to back-end rotation guy because he lacked one single overpowering offering.  What they failed to miss was that, as a repertoire, all of Lively's pitches are overpowering because he can throw all of them: 90-95 mph fastball, curve, slider, changeup.

It'll be interesting to see him iron out the control issues and learn how to pitch to better hitters.  For low end pricing, I think Ben Lively is a tremendous buy.

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