Wednesday, June 11, 2014

My (NEW) Rules For Investing In MLB Baseball Prospects

My outlook has changed this year on a pretty important facet of prospecting.  I used to invest in the sleepers... the bargains... I took the road less traveled.  I shunned all those who flocked to the hype.  I was arrogant.  I thought I'd be the one to laugh last when the hyped prospect became a bust.

But here I am stuck with a bunch of prospect autos who are not hyped, even though they should be, and they do not sell.  So, I've grown more tolerant and aware of the hype.  Hype is good.  It raises prices.  And more often than not, there's a reason for the hype.  The key is to not get in on the hype at the very peak.  But there's nothing wrong with getting in on the hype on its way up (Kris Bryant anyone?)

So, stemming from that, here are some rules I'm living by nowadays:

- take note of hyped prospects on the forums via the number of different threads asking for the same player

- no catchers

- no second basemen

- no speedsters

- be wary of pitching in the age of Tommy John surgery

- there is less risk than I used to think in going for high end players... because it takes a lot to have EVERYONE jump off the bandwagon.  just look at bubba starling.  he's awful and still can be sold.

- prospects nowadays actually can make an impact when they reach the majors (different perspective than i used to have).  its due to the advanced development of players nowadays.  so holding through the major league callup is now something im thinking of doing... rather than selling on the news of a callup

- do not invest in anyone over 23 yrs old

- keeping track of all your investments is key.  you want to know how much you paid for everything at a moment's notice.  it's all about profit.  if you need help, check out my excel program.  Mention "Lets go Mets" and I'll refund $3 of the $10.

- patience is a virtue.  if you hold and stick to your gut, you'll do well

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