Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Justin Verlander Myth

I know, Justin Verlander is not a prospect, but I wanted to point this out.
Justin Verlander Ebay Listings 

- Verlander is in decline because of reduced velocity.
- Draft him at your own peril in fantasy leagues.

- Verlander is notoriously bad in the first month (March/April) - 3.83 career ERA in March/April vs. a career 3.39 career ERA in all months.
- Verlander increases velocity as the season rolls on, probably causing his early struggles every year..
- His velocity has dropped from 2011 to 2012 to 2013 but he is on pace with last year's velocity in April. (and last year was a better year than it seems: 3.28 FIP which is lower than his career FIP of 3.38 -- so, if he plateaus at this velo, even though it's lower than pre-2013, he can still perform at a very respectable 3.28 FIP clip like he did last year).
- I'm not worried.  He's a horse.

Justin Verlander pitching velocity pitchfx
Verlander's four seamer velocity by month, tends to increase as year progresses.

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