Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Bargain Bin - Mitch Nay (Blue Jays, 3B)

Mitch Nay (Toronto Blue Jays, 3B)


Mitch Nay Ebay Listings 
Mitch Nay Stats - MiLB

2012 Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph Recent Pricing:


Base Auto - $7-10
Base Auto BGS 9.5/10 - $15-20
Refractor Auto - $10-15
Blue Auto - $30-45
Blue Auto BGS 9.5/10 - $80
Gold Auto - $105

PROFILE


Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 195 lb.
Born: September 20, 1993 in Chandler, Arizona, US (Age 20)
High School: Hamilton HS (Chandler, AZ)
Drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 1st round (58th) of the 2012 MLB June Amateur Draft from Hamilton HS (Chandler, AZ)

ANALYSIS


Mitch Nay, an infield prospect for the Blue Jays, rarely showed up on Top 100 prospect lists, and I don't understand why.  He was a supplemental first rounder and made the 2013 Appalachian League All-Star team... and was then named Most Valuable Player of the 2013 Northwest League Post-Season with Vancouver as selected by MiLB.com.

Nay was only 19 last year, and put up impressive numbers across the board.  Atypical for teenagers, Nay's BB:K ratio was a beautiful 25 BB : 35 K.  He batted .300 and hit 11 doubles, 6 home runs, and 42 RBI in only 230 AB.  The only downside was his 17 errors at third base for a bad .901 fielding percentage.

His numbers were legit as his BABIP was a relatively normal .328.  Of his 66 games, including postseason, Nay managed multiple hits in 20 of them, and multiple strikeouts in only 6 of them, while never striking out more than twice.  This shows consistency and an ability to adapt during a game (you often see teenagers have many multiple K games when they're owned by the opposing, more advanced pitcher).

Nay's power is legit and will develop.  In high school, he hit 11 bombs in 32 games in his senior year and was drafted as a prospect with plus power, a necessity for corner infielders.

So, Nay clearly has an advanced bat for his age, with his main liability being in the field.  He comes from good stock: he is the grandson of Lou Klimchock who was a third baseman in the major leagues from 1958 to 1970.  And he has a mature perspective on the game.  “[The history] was always ingrained in me because [my grandfather] always talked about it and those names (Mantle, Maris, Aaron) always came up,” said Nay. “I think it’s really important to know where baseball originated.”

With autos at less than $10, I think Nay is a VERY STRONG BUY, as I anticipate continued improvement at the plate with his mature approach.  Plus his only liability, fielding, is not a factor most prospectors use when determining demand for a prospect.



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