Tuesday, March 4, 2014

What To Do With Miguel Sano (Tommy John Surgery) and His 2010 Bowman Chrome Autographs

MIGUEL SANO

Miguel Sano will miss the entire 2014 season, undergoing Tommy John surgery.  What does that mean for his 2010 Bowman Chrome autographs?

Miguel Sano gif power swing
What 80 Power Looks Like

Miguel Sano, top prospect for the Minnesota Twins, has a 2010 Bowman Chrome auto that reached $75-100 before the announcement that he will miss the entire 2014 season due to a strained UCL in his elbow and the need for Tommy John surgery.

When Giolito missed 2013 for Tommy John surgery, his chrome autos fell to $15-20.  Smart investors built up their stash because there was no doubt he was a stud.  Now those same autos have doubled in price before he has even officially returned from TJS.  I expect the same to happen with Sano.

Sano will probably drop to $40-50 for the entire 2014 season, and will bounce back to normal levels upon his return to the top of Top Prospect lists in the Spring of 2015.  That means if he drops enough in price ($40s), those who can afford to buy and hold for a year will have an easy 50-100% profit over the course of a year.

When you consider the fact that stock investors are praised for seeing 7-10% returns over the course of a year, my projected Sano profit should be deemed a fantastic investment.

That said, if he is still well above $50 and you are holding, if you see other good investments, it could be a smart move to sell and buy your other short term investments.  The reason is opportunity cost and the likelihood that Sano can be bought again in a few months for the same price.

But however you look at it, Sano is a stud, and you can view the 2014 season as simply a time out.  His prices will drop now, and stay the same for the entire year.  When he returns in 2015, he will be the same elite stud, and his prices will once again normalize.  How you approach the investment depends on: budget, time frame, opportunity costs of holding as opposed to investing in other cards which may return short term profits.

... and talking about coming back from injury, keep your eyes on Rymer Liriano this year.


1 comment:

  1. Thanks for your insight on this. I love Sano but I have decided to sell.So many other people that I like that I can put money into.The 2010 autos are horrible in quality and impossible to grade.

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