Friday, March 7, 2014

A Look Back - Top Prospects From 2010 - What Happened?

How much stock should we put in Top Prospect lists, like the one from Baseball America?  To answer, let's look at their list from 2010...

Looking Back -- 2010


2010 Top Prospects (from Baseball America)

Looking back at the list, I did a rough estimate of the amount of stud Major Leaguers and how many guys in the list would have given you a profit if: they all had chrome autos, you bought their chrome autos when the list came out, and you sold them today.

Summary (#s 1 - 100)
  • 89/100 reached the Majors (89%)
  • 19 studs (19%)
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 18 players (18%)
  • Lessons:  It's not hard projecting Major League talent.  In a few years a large majority of the top prospects have already reached the majors.  It is, however, extremely difficult to make money prospecting long term. 
  • How To Approach 2014:  You would have profited from more than 18 players from 2010 if you sold whenever each player peaked during the last four years.  Since it's impossible to predict when a player's chrome auto has peaked, I recommend sticking to a flat profit rule (like selling once you can profit 20%).  If you do that, you would have profited from more than half the players in this list as opposed to only 18 after waiting a full 4 years.

1. Jason Heyward, of, Braves     .259/.352/.443, 532 games played
2. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals     29-19, 2.96 ERA, 75 games played
3. Giancarlo Stanton, of, Marlins     .265/.354/.535, 489 games played
4. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees     .258/.303/.396, 182 games played
5. Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles     24-34, 5.13 ERA, 151 games played
6. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays     .250/.330/.409, 351 games played
7. Buster Posey, c, Giants     .308/.377/.486, 456 games played
8. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates     .235/.306/.443, 470 games played
9. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers     10-7, 2.61 ERA, 168 games played
10. Carlos Santana, c, Indians     .254/.367/.446, 498 games played

#1 - 10
  • All Major Leaguers
  • 4 studs: Heyward, Strasburg, Stanton, Posey
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 3 (I'm not counting Strasburg as I believe his autos were more expensive back in 2010)

11. Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners     .245/.315/.354, 356 games played
12. Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers     .258/.295/.342, 663 games played
13. Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers     .227/.314/.386, 486 games played
14. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants     49-39, 3.08 ERA, 118 games played
15. Domonic Brown, of, Phillies     .255/.320/.445, 286 games played
16. Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs     .283/.322/.404, 606 games played
17. Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers     11-10, 4.05 ERA, 32 games played
18. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays     39-31, 3.70 ERA, 102 games played
19. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins     .192/.259/.338, 81 games played
20. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins     .249/.337/.427, 363 games played

#11 - 20
  • All Major Leaguers
  • 2 studs: Bumgarner, Dom Brown
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 2

21. Ryan Westmoreland, of, Red Sox     22. Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds     15-13, 2.40 ERA, 205 games played
23. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies    
24. Casey Kelly, rhp, Red Sox     2-3, 6.21 ERA, 6 games played
25. Kyle Drabek, rhp, Blue Jays     8-15, 5.37 ERA, 37 games played
26. Jacob Turner, rhp, Tigers     5-14, 4.27 ERA, 33 games played
27. Brett Wallace, 3b/1b, Blue Jays     .242/.313/.391, 311 games played
28. Chris Carter, of/1b, Athletics     .263/.316/.374, 113 games played
29. Michael Taylor, of, Athletics     .135/.210/.189, 26 games played
30. Michael Saunders, of, Mariners     .224/.295/.374, 475 games played

#21 - 30
  • 8 Major Leaguers
  • 2 studs: Chapman, Turner
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from (Chapman and Turner were more expensive in 2010 than they are now)
31. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians     .244/.284/.411, 203 games played
32. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves     .285/.358/.466, 471 games played
33. Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies     5-8, 6.17 ERA, 16 games played
34. Wade Davis, rhp, Rays     36-33, 4.26 ERA, 149 games played
35. Matt Moore, lhp, Rays     29-15, 3.55 ERA, 61 games played
36. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks     25-16, 3.68 ERA, 62 games played
37. Josh Bell, 3b, Orioles     .195/.223/.265, 100 games played
38. Derek Norris, c, Nationals     .226/.315/.383, 158 games played
39. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals    
40. Aaron Crow, rhp, Royals     14-10, 3.19 ERA, 187 games played

#31 - 40
  • 9 Major Leaguers
  • 2 studs: Freeman, Moore
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 2

41. Jason Castro, c, Astros     .255/.332/.417, 274 games played
42. Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Rangers     7-3, 2.64 ERA, 115 games played
43. Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b, Reds     .249/.318/.446, 319 games played
44. Nick Hagadone, lhp, Indians     2-1, 5.59 ERA, 72 games played
45. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds     .279/.346/.395, 321 games played
46. Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers     .256/.301/.312, 181 games played
47. Casey Crosby, lhp, Tigers     1-1, 9.49 ERA, 3 games played
48. Chris Withrow, rhp, Dodgers     3-0, 2.60 ERA, 26 games played
49. Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants     7-5, 3.42 ERA, 17 games played
50. Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals     16-9, 2.94 ERA, 37 games played

#41 - 50
  • All Major Leaguers
  • 2 studs: ZWheel, Shelby
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 2

51. Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves     15-9, 3.44 ERA, 37 games played
52. Grant Green, ss, Athletics     .250/.301/.343, 45 games played
53. Donavan Tate, of, Padres    
54. Reid Brignac, ss, Rays     .221/.262/.311, 302 games played
55. Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox    
56. Jenrry Mejia, rhp, Mets     2-8, 4.04 ERA, 43 games played
57. Simon Castro, rhp, Padres     0-1, 2.70 ERA, 4 games played
58. Wilson Ramos, c, Twins     .270/.325/.445, 238 games played
59. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers     .269/.328/.427, 275 games played
60. Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox     .200/.279/.372, 192 games played

#51 - 60
  • 8 Major Leaguers
  • 2 studs: Teheran, Lawrie
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 2

61. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins     2-4, 6.53 ERA, 10 games played
62. Ike Davis, 1b, Mets     .242/.334/.434, 442 games played
63. Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles     18-17, 4.77 ERA, 48 games played
64. Jason Knapp, rhp, Indians    
65. Alex White, rhp, Indians     5-13, 6.03 ERA, 33 games played
66. Daniel Hudson, rhp, White Sox     28-17, 3.68 ERA, 62 games played
67. Tim Beckham, ss, Rays     .429/.375/.429, 5 games played
68. Alex Colome, rhp, Rays     1-1, 2.25 ERA, 3 games played
69. Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves     1-1, 4.67 ERA, 17 games played
70. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs     .121/.193/.202, 36 games played

#61 - 70
  • 9 Major Leaguers
  • 0 studs:
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 2 (maybe Ike before his slump, Colome)

71. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Rockies     37-41, 3.61 ERA, 113 games played
72. Mike Leake, rhp, Reds     42-29, 3.99 ERA, 114 games played
73. Jio Mier, ss, Astros    
74. Brett Jackson, of, Cubs     .175/.303/.342, 44 games played
75. Josh Reddick, of, Red Sox     .239/.302/.427, 413 games played
76. Austin Jackson, of, Tigers     .278/.344/.416, 570 games played
77. Fernando Martinez, of, Mets     .206/.269/.362, 99 games played
78. Chad James, lhp, Marlins    
79. Tony Sanchez, c, Pirates     .233/.288/.400, 22 games played
80. Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals     .244/.296/.385, 374 games played

#71 - 80
  • 8 Major Leaguers
  • 1 studs: Moustakas
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 1

81. Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays     .202/.286/.263, 31 games played
82. Jaff Decker, of, Padres     .154/.233/.269, 13 games played
83. Adam Moore, c, Mariners     .200/.237/.310, 77 games played
84. Hank Conger, c, Angels     .225/.295/.368, 171 games played
85. Mike Trout, of, Angels     .314/.404/.544, 336 games played
86. Austin Romine, c, Yankees     .201/.248/.279, 69 games played
87. Lars Anderson, 1b, Red Sox     .167/.268/.188, 30 games played
88. Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets     .211/.248/.295, 27 games played
89. Mat Gamel, 3b, Brewers     .229/.305/.367, 106 games played
90. James Darnell, 3b, Padres     .226/.300/.371, 25 games played

#81 - 90
  • All Major Leaguers
  • 3 studs: d'Arnaud, Trout, Flores
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 3

91. Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros     14-29, 5.35 ERA, 72 games played
92. Drew Storen, rhp, Nationals     17-10, 3.40 ERA, 232 games played
93. Phillippe Aumont, rhp, Phillies     1-4, 3.97 ERA, 40 games played
94. Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins    
95. Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs     15-19, 3.55 ERA, 124 games played
96. Thomas Neal, of, Giants     .184/.244/.211, 15 games played
97. Peter Bourjos, of, Angels     .251/.306/.398, 354 games played
98. Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs    
99. Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles     24-27, 5.23 ERA, 78 games played
100. Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals

#91 - 100
  • 7 Major Leaguers, 1 Future MLBer
  • 1 stud: Sano
  • If they all had chrome autos and you bought when the list came out, you probably would have profited from 1

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