Thursday, June 27, 2013

Futures Game Roster Fun Facts

Some random facts regarding the 50 prospects chosen for the All Star Future's Game:

# of NL prospects - 24
# of AL prospects - 26
# of prospects in low-A - 6
A Advanced - 11
AA - 18
AAA - 15
Born in the 1980's - 12
Born in the 1990s - 38
Switch hitters - 4
LHP - only 3
5 teenagers
No team has more than 2 prospects
USA players with Bowman Chrome Autos - 19
World Players with BC Autos - 11
Youngest - Dilson Herrera (3/3/94)
Oldest - Jordan Lennerton (2/16/86)

Who I'm most excited to see: Brad Miller and the Mets pitchers (Syndergaard and Montero)


Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Bargain Bin - Justin Nicolino (SP, Mia)

How much would you pay for a recently released Bowman Chrome prospect autograph of a prospect who ranks as high as the 39th best MLB prospect, by Scout.com (64th by MLB.com), is 21 years old, and has career stats of 19-7, 2.13 ERA, 235 K, 253.2 IP...

If you said that you'd only pay $2 for that chrome auto, then, well, you're out of luck.  But if your number was above $6 or $7 (which it most likely is), then Justin Nicolino's BC autos are a bargain.

The 2013 Bowman release is a bit tricky.  Unfortunately, the base autographs were overproduced, and prices are reflecting that large supply.  So, can this be a reason as to why Nicolino's autos are so cheap?  Perhaps.  But then again, Buxton, Correa, Polanco, etc. have no problems fetching some nice prices for their base autographs.

So, what's left is a severely underpriced, overlooked stud pitching prospect, Justin Nicolino.

Nicolino was traded from Toronto to Miami in the blockbuster trade involving Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, and Buehrle.  While in Toronto, he pitched alongside fellow studs, Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.  This year, he is in a farm system that recently called up uber stud Jose Fernandez.  Nicolino lacks the high 90s velocity of those guys.  His strengths are secondary offerings, intelligence, mound presence, etc.  I sometimes wonder whether the lack of a 98+ mph heater hinders the price of pitching prospects like Nicolino... but damn, this kid knows how to pitch and has yet to show any signs of struggle in his development.

At his super low prices, I'd buy.

Justin Nicolino 2013 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph Pitcher Miami Marlins

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Brad Miller (16 Game Hitting Streak) vs. Triunfel (.048) & Ryan (.203)

Yes, another post about my favorite prospect:

Brad Miller is currently riding a 16 game hitting streak in AAA, has a hit in 18 of his 20 games since being promoted to AAA, and is hitting .341 - 21 R - 4 HR - 23 RBI - 1 SB in only 20 games at Tacoma.

Now, the reason Miller isn't in the majors is his glove.  Sadly, he does have 6 errors already in those 20 games, but he sat out tonight... could this mean an imminent call-up?  I really hope so..

Carlos Triunfel started at SS tonight for Seattle.  He's hitting .048.  Brendan Ryan, the normal Mariners SS is hitting .203 with 192 ABs under his belt.  We're gonna see Brad Miller soon and their up the middle tandom of Miller/Franklin will provide the Mariners with one of the better offensive double play combos in baseball for years to come.  Yes, I did just say that.

Miller's base autos (2012 Bowman Chrome) sell for about $10, his refractor autos about $15.  I'm buying as many as I can get.

Here's a nice article from faketeams.com, backing up my enthusiasm.


Thursday, June 13, 2013

Checking Back In On CJ Edwards (SP, Tex)

My favorite pitching prospect of 2013 Bowman Chrome (my analysis here), CJ Edwards "hit the Disabled List" for a brief stint.  Luckily, I found out this had nothing to do with injury, but rather the Rangers have an innings limit on Edwards, and would like him to be able to pitch in minor league postseason games at the end of the season.  I love this philosophy and what it implies for the club's belief in Edwards' future.

Since May 16, Edwards has had 4 outings:

Date        OPP      W/L     IP    H    R   ER    HR   BB  SO  GO/AO    AVG
May 19   @DEL    W     7.0    1     1    1        0       2    7      1.14         .045
May 24    KAN       L      4.0    7     5    3       0       2    5      2.00         .389
May 29    @AUG   ND    3.2    1     0    0      0       4    7      2.00         .071
Jun 09      @GVL    W     5.0    1     3    0      0        3    8     9.00         .056


Here's what I take from these stat lines:

19.2 IP - 27 K -- true swing and miss stuff

GO/AO -- Getting lots of ground ball outs.  Love to see this.

Has given up only 1 hit in 3 of the 4 outings.

On one of Edwards' K on 6/9, the catcher was charged with a passed ball, allowing the batter to reach first.  This tells me something:  Edwards' stuff is so nasty that his catcher couldn't handle a pitch that was in the strike zone.  Sounds good to me.

11 BB is something to keep an eye on.  The K:BB ratio is fine, but not the BB/9 IP.  The high K's and BB's inevitably lead to high pitch counts which is why most of his outings are short.  I'd love to see him keep up with the dominant K rate, but seeing as how he is able to induce plenty of ground outs, I hope he learns to pitch to contact, and not try to strike everyone out.  This will enable him to cut down on the walks, go further into games, and be prepared for more advanced hitters.

Grading the Tools of the Top 100 Prospects

COURTESY OF BASEBALLAMERICA.COM:

Here is a very useful list of the top 100 prospects, along with grades of their tools (scale of 20-80), based on future potential.

Interesting note: 100 prospects x 5 tools = 500 total graded tools
Only 6 graded a perfect 80:
  1. Gerrit Cole's fastball
  2. Miguel Sano's power
  3. Byron Buxton's speed
  4. Billie Hamilton's speed
  5. Rondon's fastball
  6. Roman Quinn's speed

1 Jurickson Profar ss/2b, Rangers
Age: 20. ETA: 2013.
Bat: 70. Power: 60. Speed: 55. Defense: 65. Arm: 60.
2 Dylan Bundy rhp, Orioles
Age: 20. ETA: 2013.
Fastball: 70. Curve: 65. Changeup: 60. Control: 65. Command: 60.
3 Oscar Taveras of, Cardinals
Age: 20. ETA: 2013.
Bat: 75. Power: 60. Speed: 50. Defense: 55. Arm: 55.
4 Wil Myers of/3b, Rays
Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Bat: 60. Power: 70. Speed: 45. Defense: 55. Arm: 60.
5 Jose Fernandez rhp, Marlins
Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
Fastball: 75. Curve: 65. Changeup: 55. Control: 65. Command: 60.
6 Shelby Miller rhp, Cardinals
Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Fastball: 70. Curve: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 60. Command: 55.
7 Gerrit Cole rhp, Pirates
Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Fastball: 80. Slider: 70. Changeup: 60. Control: 55. Command: 50.
8 Xander Bogaerts ss, Red Sox
Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
Bat: 60. Power: 70. Speed: 50. Defense: 55. Arm: 60.
9 Miguel Sano 3b, Twins
Age: 19. ETA: 2015.
Bat: 55. Power: 80. Speed: 40. Defense: 40. Arm: 75.
10 Byron Buxton of, Twins
Age: 19. ETA: 2015.
Bat: 60. Power: 60. Speed: 80. Defense: 60. Arm: 70.
11 Zack Wheeler rhp, Mets
Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
Fastball: 70. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 60. Command: 55.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

2013 MLB Draft -- 10,000 Page Views -- Thank You!

Woo hoo!  10,000 page views.  Thank you to everyone who has visited and followed my blog!

Big night tonight - rounds 1 and 2 of the 2013 MLB draft...

So what does this mean for your prospecting?
Absolutely nothing.  A few guys with Bowman Chrome USA sticker autos might get a slight bump if they get drafted early, but those USA sticker autos become worthless as soon as their real on-card chrome autos are released.

For me, the MLB draft is really about my team (the Mets), and who we pick.  Other than that, sure it could be fun learning a bit about the first rounders, but I assure you they will all become household names by the time their autos are released.

That said, it's fun to cling onto a prospect or two who you have a hunch on.  For me, two guys caught my attention so far:

1. Aaron Judge (OF, Fresno St.)  First off, I prefer hitters.  Second, I prefer college bats.  Third, this beast is 6'7" 240 lbs. and projects to have a 70 power tool in the future.  Lastly, I take notice when amateurs perform well in the Cape Cod league, as this is their first attempt with wood bats and against the nation's best, and Judge held his own hitting 5 bombs in 100 ABs, with a .270 avg. and 6 SB.

2. Kris Bryant (3B, San Diego) Another advanced, powerful college bat, and a beast who led the nation with 31 bombs (in 62 games).  6'5" 210 lbs.  And despite the ridiculous power output, he was patient, walking 66 times as pitchers tried to pitch around him.  31 HR and 66 BB in 62 games seems almost impossible to me.

Sunday, June 2, 2013

George Springer and MLB DAILY PICKS Note

Just a quick post:

1.  No more "MLB Daily Picks" posts.  I've decided to stick to what we all love, which is prospecting.  I ended the season 10-3 (Up 5.63 Units), meaning if I could've made 5.63x my normal wager if I actually had the guts to place bets.

2.  George Springer deserves a shout out - almost every preseason scouting report pointed at his K rate and advantage of playing in the CAL last year.  Good for Springer to prove the naysayers wrong.  After today's double header, Springer has taken his talents at AA to a stat line that would make anyone drool:  .310- 46 r -17 hr - 47 rbi - 17 sb

Springer has an auto in 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft hovering around $25 right now.  Heck, I'd buy as many as I can get.



Saturday, June 1, 2013

Bargain Bin - Chris Archer, Alex Colome (SP, Rays)

Bargain Bin - Cheap Prospects with Upside


Highlighting lower priced bowman chrome autos of prospects who seem to be better than their pricing dictates...

CHRIS ARCHER / ALEX COLOME
Card: 2011 Bowman Chrome Autographs
Cost: < $10
Why: I've always loved these underrated TB Rays strikeout machines.  I placed a Strong Buy recommendation on Colome last year on 8/3/2012, and last night's debut for Colome made me look good.  Archer was called up to make his 2013 MLB debut today at Cleveland, after an impressive 36 K in 29.1 IP last year for the Rays big league club.  As long as their base autos remain in the single digits, I'd buy.  The Rays rotation is crowded so don't be discouraged if either or both get sent back down eventually.  Their stuff is legit and they can be massive trade chips as well.  From my experience, almost all trades result in spikes immediately thereafter as the new team's fans want a piece of their new prized prospect.




Bargain Bin - Brad Miller (SS, Sea)

Bargain Bin - Cheap Prospects with Upside


Highlighting lower priced bowman chrome autos of prospects who seem to be better than their pricing dictates...

BRAD MILLER
Card: 2012 Bowman Chrome Autograph
Cost:$10
Why: Boy, do I love this guy.  Luckily for us, he is overshadowed by fellow Mariners shortstop prospect, Nick Franklin (who was recently promoted to the bigs).  As a result of Franklin's promotion, Miller was promoted to the hitter's haven, PCL, and has already knocked in 10 RBI in 7 games.  Miller is a legit middle infielder hitting threat who is capable of eventually hitting .300 with 20 hr and 20 sb.  These are monster numbers for his position, which will one day make him a rare commodity.  I expect more offensive production in the PCL, especially as he moves up from 7th in the order at Tacoma (he's been slotted in Tacoma's order 2nd once, 7th once, 8th four times, and 9th once).

In his last 3 games, Miller is absolutely on fire .375 - 5 r - 2 hr - 9 RBI



Brad Miller Bowman Chrome Autograph Auto Superfractor 1/1 Seattle Mariners prospect rookie