Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Q & A: Recap of Some MLB Prospect Questions From Readers


Here are a few questions I've received along with my answers:


1. Ryan Jones - August 11, 2013 at 5:11 AM
No comments about Joc but love your work. What do you think about Matt Olson?
  • Me
Thanks. I appreciate that.
I'm a fan of Matt Olson. I think he'll develop legit corner infield power, and he's in a good organization for learning patience and pitch recognition. He's a long term investment though, very raw. If you don't mind holding for a while and you can stomach the ups and downs (like his .160 avg since July), Olson could be a good one.

2. Anonymous - August 11, 2013 at 2:10 PM
How about Nick Castellanos? Are you buying, holding, or selling?
  • Me
Nah, I wouldn't buy Castellanos. If I had him, I'd sell once he gets promoted. He's a weaker version of Christian Yelich, minus the speed, with less power. Yelich's SV has been $30 since last year. Castellanos is $30 now, so like Yelich, it'll probably still be $30 next year.
   
   
3.  Anonymous - August 13, 2013 at 2:13 AM
What do you think about Luis Sardinas?
  • Me
Pass, Sardinas has no pop. Check out Odor, Guzman, and the other Rangers hitting prospects instead. Much more upside and demand.
  • So should I get out as soon as I can or hold until he gets promoted??
  • Me
Really depends on whether you can profit, and what your expectations were. If you can at least break even, I'd sell. Just my opinion, of course.
   
  
4. Anonymous - August 15, 2013 at 6:58 AM
Curious of your thoughts on:
Christian Villanueva
Brandon Martin
Clay Holmes
  • Me
I like Villanueva but he'll always be overshadowed by Baez, Soler, Vogelbach, etc.
    Don't like Brandon Martin.
    And Heredia is the raw Pirates pitching prospect to shoot for.
       
5. Anonymous - August 16, 2013 at 3:37 AM
How do you feel about?
Mark Montgomery?
The next big Yankees Star or another in a line of flops?
  • Me
Until the Yankees develop a solid pitching prospect, I have no faith in them. Banuelos, Joba, Hughes, Betances... gross. I'd buy super low on Ty Hensley, if anyone, but that's a long wait because of his injury. He has elite stuff though and is dirt cheap.

6.  Anonymous - August 17, 2013 at 1:25 AM
What do you think about the Twins farm system?? What do you think about these players and investing in each? Pro's and Con's of each??
What do you think about:
-Eddie Rosario
-Alex Meyer
-Jose Berrios
-Kohl Stewart
-Oswaldo Arcia
-Adam Brett Walker
-Byron Buxton
-Migeul Sano
  • Me
Stay tuned for my Twins team post which should cover most of those guys. In a nutshell, Sano and Buxton are way to expensive for my taste and probably fairly priced so it doesn't excite me. I'm a huge fan of Arcia, very professional hitter, and I've talked about him before on the blog. I like EdRo as well, very impressive for his age. And lastly, I love Alex Meyer too. Search the blog for him. I definitely mentioned him because of how impressive his scouting grades were for his fastball (75) and curve (65), the TWO quintessential predictors for future success.

Don't care about the others until I see chrome autos of them. Non autos are typically weak investments and too much work.

7. Anonymous - August 13, 2013 at 2:11 AM
Does it matter at all that Kivlehan's a Mariner? I would feel better if he played for the Dodgers or the Cardinals...Your thoughts??
  • Me
Yes, it's an issue. But he continues to put up astronomical numbers at a very low cost. It's too hard to ignore at this point.

8. Joey Markarian - August 13, 2013 at 1:55 PM
Hey Adam who do you think the five best investments are at this time? thanks for your insight

  • Me
Too hard to answer. Depends on when you ask me, whether it's Return % or $ on investment, length of investment horizon, etc.

BONUS to the last question... best investments? See below.

LOW END:
Hitter: Patrick Kivlehan
Pitcher: Clayton Blackburn

MID END:
Hitter: Tough to say, but I'd start with those Rangers hitting prospects... I got a feeling about Rougned Odor
Pitcher: Robert Stephenson

HIGH END:
Hitter: Javier Baez
Pitcher: NEVER invest in high end pitchers!!!

4 comments:

  1. What are your thoughts on Michael Fulmer? Buy/bail/hold? And not your biased Mets fan opinion ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK I won't be biased because I'd bail. As a Met fan, there are just too many other prospects getting my attention. Fulmer will be overshadowed for years to come by: Harvey, ZWheel, Flores, D'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Montero, Lagares. Fulmer has no chance at cracking a rotation with these teammates: Harvey, ZWheel, Syndergaard, Montero, Gee, Niese.

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  2. How much higher do you see Kivlehan going? He's having a great year, but still pretty overlooked by many. Any chance at a September call up?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nah, we won't see Kivlehan in the majors this year. Teams don't promote prospects who are only in A Advanced straight to the majors. It's too big of a jump. They'll let him ride his hot streak (23 game hitting streak, by the way) through the last few games of the season and end his year on a very positive note.

      The reason he's still overlooked and also his ultimate potential makes for a great discussion. I might actually write an article about it.

      First off, you have the 2 obvious downsides. Seattle prospects get no love. And he's considered old for A Advanced. The average age of prospects in his league is 22.4 yrs old. He's turning 24 this year.

      But the weird thing is he's not that overlooked. On the forums, there are tons of collectors buying and looking for Kivlehan. But unfortunately, everyone is kinda stuck in the current price range, using the same ebay sales as Kivlehan's value. So, all it really takes is for one hardcore collector to corner the market and snag the few colored autos that are currently on ebay, and then you'll start to see a nice spike. The guy is hitting as well as anyone right now.

      It'll be really interesting to see where scouts rank him in the offseason. You'll hear some skeptics mention that he is too old for A Adv. so his stats should be taken with a grain of salt. You'll also hear that the stats were inflated because the CAL league is a hitter's league. But if any reputable scouters (Keith Law, Baseball America, John Sickels, etc.) come out and say they're a believer, then that can also cause a spike.

      (Interesting sidenote: The "experts" at Baseball America mentioned they wouldn't put Kivlehan in any weekly Prospect Hot Sheet because he is too old to be in single A. I think that's the lamest thing I ever heard. If a guy knocks in 30 RBI in a week, I don't care if it's in high school, he deserves a place on the hot list. I lost a little respect for whoever makes those Hot Sheets after hearing that. But we have to keep tabs on it any way. Their weekly, biased, and arbitrary list has a lot of influence on prices.)

      Maybe if Kivlehan can reach a 30 game hitting streak, he could get some good press and spike.

      But if you want a quick buck, prospecting is very hard, and I wouldn't recommend it. For me, I'm a Kivlehan believer and a Rutgers graduate like Kivlehan so I'm a fan. His autos are cheap enough to just stash away without worrying. Next year will be his most important one that should set his true pricing. I'm more than happy to hold and see what the guy can do.

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