Friday, August 23, 2013

Patrick Kivlehan Makes The Baseball America Hot Sheet

Patrick Kivlehan Makes The Baseball America Hot Sheet

I'll cap off my obsession with Mariners super underrated prospect Patrick Kivlehan with my analysis of his chrome auto values, via my answer to a reader's question.  Ironically, I mention how Baseball America claimed they didn't want to include Kivlehan in a Hot Sheet, yet there he is... he finally made it this week at #10.


Anonymous August 22, 2013 at 4:21 AM
How much higher do you see Kivlehan going? He's having a great year, but still pretty overlooked by many. Any chance at a September call up?

  1. Adam August 22, 2013 at 5:02 AM
    Nah, we won't see Kivlehan in the majors this year. Teams don't promote prospects who are only in A Advanced straight to the majors. It's too big of a jump. They'll let him ride his hot streak (23 game hitting streak, by the way) through the last few games of the season and end his year on a very positive note.

    The reason he's still overlooked and also his ultimate potential makes for a great discussion. I might actually write an article about it.

    First off, you have the 2 obvious downsides. Seattle prospects get no love. And he's considered old for A Advanced. The average age of prospects in his league is 22.4 yrs old. He's turning 24 this year.

    But the weird thing is he's not that overlooked. On the forums, there are tons of collectors buying and looking for Kivlehan. But unfortunately, everyone is kinda stuck in the current price range, using the same ebay sales as Kivlehan's value. So, all it really takes is for one hardcore collector to corner the market and snag the few colored autos that are currently on ebay, and then you'll start to see a nice spike. The guy is hitting as well as anyone right now.

    It'll be really interesting to see where scouts rank him in the offseason. You'll hear some skeptics mention that he is too old for A Adv. so his stats should be taken with a grain of salt. You'll also hear that the stats were inflated because the CAL league is a hitter's league. But if any reputable scouters (Keith Law, Baseball America, John Sickels, etc.) come out and say they're a believer, then that can also cause a spike.

    (Interesting sidenote: The "experts" at Baseball America mentioned they wouldn't put Kivlehan in any weekly Prospect Hot Sheet because he is too old to be in single A. I think that's the lamest thing I ever heard. If a guy knocks in 20 RBI in a week, I don't care if it's in high school, he deserves a place on the hot list. I lost a little respect for whoever makes those Hot Sheets after hearing that. But we have to keep tabs on it any way. Their weekly, biased, and arbitrary list has a lot of influence on prices.)

    Maybe if Kivlehan can reach a 30 game hitting streak, he could get some good press and spike.

    But if you want a quick buck, prospecting is very hard, and I wouldn't recommend it. For me, I'm a Kivlehan believer and a Rutgers graduate like Kivlehan so I'm a fan. His autos are cheap enough to just stash away without worrying. Next year will be his most important one that should set his true pricing. I'm more than happy to hold and see what the guy can do.

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