Friday, August 23, 2013

NL West - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres - Bowman Chrome Autograph Analysis

NL WEST - Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres - Bowman Chrome Autograph Analysis

BUY
HOLD
SELL

Teams listed are the teams represented ON THE CARD - player may be on a different team now
BC = Bowman Chrome Autograph (from Bowman or Bowman Chrome)
BDPP - Bowman Chrome Draft Autograph

Here is a nice, compact view of my buy, hold, sell ratings for the prospect autographs found on the Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres.



Andrew Chafin Diamondbacks 2012 BC

Jonathan Griffin Diamondbacks 2012 BC
Stryker Trahan Diamondbacks 2012 BDPP
Archie Bradley Diamondbacks 2011 BDPP

Tyler Skaggs Diamondbacks 2012 BC
Wagner Mateo Diamondbacks 2011 BC
Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks 2011 BC



Joc Pederson Dodgers 2012 BC 

Corey Seager Dodgers 2012 BDPP 

Blake Smith Dodgers 2011 BC
Dee Gordon Dodgers 2011 BC
Garret Gould Dodgers 2011 BC
Pratt Maynard Dodgers 2012 BC
James Baldwin Dodgers 2011 BC 


Cory Spangenberg Padres 2011 BDPP
Keyvius Sampson Padres 2011 BC
Rymer Liriano Padres 2011 BC
Max Fried Padres 2012 BDPP  

Joe Ross Padres 2012 BC 
Austin Hedges Padres 2012 BC  

Jedd Gyorko Padres 2011 BC 
Matt Lollis Padres 2011 BC 





2 comments:

  1. I want to start off by saying, I love your work. You make collecting prospects fun again. Please tell my why you think Gyorko is a "sell"? I just picked up one of his chrome auto refractors for $15. This guy is leading the NL rookies in homers and it seems to me that its only a matter of time before collectors start recognizing his potential. What do you think?

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the kind words! I hate to do this to you, but here are my thoughts on Gyorko:

      It's a common theme in my blog to usually stay away from prospects who are already in the big leagues. And this theme is pretty consistent with the major prospectors out there, many of whom I keep in touch with. What tends to happen is once a prospect makes it, people flood the market at the same time with that prospect's autos and the price actually gradually decreases because of the increased supply that hit the market. Also, demand for that prospect decreases and gets limited only to true fans of the player, which is usually a very small group of collectors. Prospectors, true to their name, will move onto other prospects as that player has now lost prospect status.

      So, even though Gyorko is having a decent year, San Diego isn't a good collector's market and people don't really care about Gyorko any more. That $15 refractor you bought, although a sweet card, was more than double that price a year ago (I know, it's a strange aspect of prospecting). So, sadly it isn't a "matter of time before collectors start recognizing his potential"... ironically, most collectors actually already recognized his potential back in 2011 and 2012 and it's evidenced by the price of his autos back then compared to now.

      In order to see profits from Gyorko, he has to become a superstar (which he can't if he has to hit at PETCO and be surrounded by an awful offense). I just don't see it happening.

      Thanks for the question though! It was a good one.

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