Saturday, August 24, 2013

Jedd Gyorko (Padres, 2B / 3B) - Why I'm Selling - My Thoughts on Prospects in The Major Leagues

Jedd Gyorko picture San Diego Padres Rookie


Albert A. asked me a good question.  He asked:
"I want to start off by saying, I love your work. You make collecting prospects fun again. Please tell my why you think Gyorko is a "sell"? I just picked up one of his chrome auto refractors for $15. This guy is leading the NL rookies in homers and it seems to me that its only a matter of time before collectors start recognizing his potential. What do you think?"


It brings up an important issue for prospectors, which is the impact that making it to the majors has on BC autos.  Here was my response as to why I rated Gyorko's 2011 Bowman Chrome Auto a SELL:



Thanks for the kind words! I hate to do this to you, but here are my thoughts on Gyorko:
It's a common theme in my blog to usually stay away from prospects who are already in the big leagues. And this theme is pretty consistent with the major prospectors out there, many of whom I keep in touch with. What tends to happen is once a prospect makes it, people flood the market at the same time with that prospect's autos and the price actually gradually decreases because of the increased supply that hit the market. Also, demand for that prospect decreases and gets limited only to true fans of the player, which is usually a very small group of collectors. Prospectors, true to their name, will move onto other prospects as that player has now lost prospect status.
So, even though Gyorko is having a decent year, San Diego isn't a good collector's market and people don't really care about Gyorko any more. That $15 refractor you bought, although a sweet card, was more than double that price a year ago (I know, it's a strange aspect of prospecting). So, sadly it isn't a "matter of time before collectors start recognizing his potential"... ironically, most collectors actually already recognized his potential back in 2011 and 2012 and that's why his autos were more expensive back then.
In order to see profits from Gyorko, he has to become a superstar (which he can't if he has to hit at PETCO and be surrounded by an awful offense). I just don't see it happening.
Thanks for the question though! It was a good one.



2 comments:

  1. I think it'd be a fun read as well as a great learning experience to write a post about your big hits in prospecting as well as your big misses. Give advice on what you learned in each, and what went wrong or right to make that profit or lack thereof. Great Blog

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    1. I can definitely do that and I actually don't invest myself any more so I can maintain unbiased viewpoints.

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