Friday, July 26, 2013

Pittsburgh Pirates - Prospect Autograph Analysis from Every MLB Team Continues



There's a lot to like in the Pirates system.  There's a great mix of potential frontline starters as well as toolsy hitters, and they all have Bowman Chrome autos...



I'll just start with the oldest chrome autos and work my way up to 2013:

Lately, I've been avoiding pitching prospects in favor of hitters and I also tend to avoid the higher end players. Jameson Taillon is a perfect example of why.  Taillon has all the tools to succeed and his price reflects that with $25-30 2010 Bowman Chrome Draft autos.  But, if you bought them 3 years ago, and held this entire time, then you'd lose money if you sold now.  Basically, Taillon has already racked up well over 300 IP and there have been no improvements in any aspect of his results.  I could never invest in a pitcher who can't rack up a K/IP especially when he has the stuff that Taillon has... and his stuff is elite.  His fastball rates as a 75, and his curveball rates a 65.  To put that in perspective, only 2 top 100 prospects had a better fastball rating, and only 1 had a better curveball rating (thanks to Baseball America's evaluation).  Still, I'd sell any autos I had if I owned him.

From 2011 BC, we have 3 really interesting prospects.  I'll skip Starling Marte since he's no longer a prospect, but he's the real deal.  I'd rate his autos as a HOLD and see if he can really break out eventually.  Then we have Luis Heredia, a very young SP, who has the potential to develop into an SP1/2.  I wouldn't invest in his 2011 BC autos because it would require a long holding time and depends on development of his secondary pitches, which is impossible to predict.  His bad K/BB and K/IP ratios probably reflect the current ineffeciency of his secondary stuff, and I suspect in about a year or two, I will start to seriously consider buying him.  Lastly, we got Stetson Allie, a pitcher-turned-masher.  Allie surprised the world when he tore up Low A this year to the tune of .324-17-61.  His 2011 BC Autos hit $20+ I believe, but what I didn't believe was that it would last... and it didn't.  After dominating low A at the old age of 22, he was promoted to High-A and has fallen back to earth now that he has to face better pitching.  His autos are only a couple bucks and not worth the hassle.

From 2012, Gerrit Cole has to be mentioned for obvious reasons, but I wouldn't invest.  Pitcher.  In the majors.  And already topping $50 base autos.  Clay Holmes (2012 BC) has 67 K and 56 BB... enough said.  Then we have Josh Bell (2012 BC).  Bell is very interesting.  When his auto came out, Bell was a highly touted dude projected to become a .300-30-100 kind of hitter.  I believe his autos were around $40.  Then he had to end his 2012 season for knee surgery and had a tough time healing.  He seems healthy this year and is playing pretty well (.276-9-60).  His K and BB rates have improved tremendously since last year, adds a very respectable total of 29 doubles this year, and still hasn't turned 21 yet.  Call me crazy or call it a hunch, but I'd BUY his $15 or so chrome autos.  I feel a breakout coming next year for this $5 million bonus-receiving switch hitter.  There's just no reason to doubt the scouting reports that glorified him only one year ago.  He could still be a special hitter.

And from 2013, you have Dilson Herrera ($5), Gregory Polanco ($30+), and Alen Hanson ($10).  Herrera's a nice little player... no, literally.  The dude weighs 150 lbs.  I try to avoid hitters without power and middle infielders.  Herrera is both.  Polanco is a potential 5-tool stud.  But unfortunately, his price already reflects that.  I'd have to avoid him for now, probably because best case scenario is he muscles up in the offseason, shows more pop, and his autos reach the $50 range by next year.  After ebay/paypal fees, that means you'd probably net a couple bucks.  It's just not worth it.  Lastly, we have Alen Hanson, another 150 pounder.  His main attribute is speed (103 career SB), but his success rate isn't too good.  He'll probably end up at 2B because he's not good enough to handle SS.  His extra base hit totals have been very impressive, but I'd guess it is a byproduct of his speed (i.e. 13 triples last year), more than screaming liners deep in the gap.  He's just too small to expect 20+ HR from, and I'd probably have to avoid him.  I see his ceiling being a .280 - 10 HR - 15 SB second baseman.  Nice for the Pirates... bleh for prospecting.


No comments:

Post a Comment