Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Trevor Bauer (SP, Arizona)

Trevor Bauer (SP, Arizona)

Trevor Bauer could be the next Tim Lincecum.  Their deliveries even look alike.  There’s no denying his talent and I think there’s a very safe and profitable short-mid term play here.

The buzz surrounding Diamondbacks camp this Spring was that Bauer could be slotted in the fifth spot of the starting rotation, due to an injury to Josh Collmenter.  Immediately, Bauer’s 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Autos increased about 20%.  I bought into the hype and promise and purchased a refractor auto for $65.  At the time, they were selling in the $80-90 range.

Shortly thereafter, news broke that Collmenter was indeed the #5 SP, and Bauer was sent back down to AAA.  Overnight, Bauer’s refractor auto went from the $80’s to the $60’s.  All of this price movement hinged on the simple decision of whether Bauer would be an MLB starter.  Talent, projections, supply, etc. – all of it was irrelevant as the basic price for Bauer is and has always been intact.

For this reason, I think you can safely assume that the opposite will be true if (AND WHEN) rumors/news break that Bauer will be called up.  If Collmenter gets injured or underperforms, Arizona will be quick to promote their prized pitching prospect.  Once this happens, the price of his autos will jump right back up to Spring Training pricing.

I believe this is a relatively safe investment that will produce modest gains (but gains, nonetheless), anywhere from a few weeks to a few months from now.  Most prospectors would hold their autos when Bauer is promoted, hoping for immediate brilliance, and a real payday on their Bauer autos.  I’m not that greedy.  I’d take the more conservative approach and pocket the profit.  Once collectors learn (or even have reason to speculate) that Bauer will be called up, I expect a 25-40% rise in pricing.  That’s a nice profit.  I’d cash in and move on… but as a fan, I’d definitely tune in to see Bauer’s magnificence on the mound.

It’s a pure situational play, but we should still pay some respect to the underlying prospect.  Trevor Bauer will be a beast for years to come.

Recommendation: BUY

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