Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Mets Pitching Prospects: Wheeler, Harvey, Familia

My team is the Mets, so I'll start with them in my first organizational prospect report.

With an impending Madoff trustee lawsuit affecting their finances, the Mets were very quiet this offseason.  They neglected Jose Reyes' free agent status by not even making him an offer.  There are also rumors that the face of the franchise, David Wright, could be moved as early as this year.  Adding to that, the Mets financials were recently released.  The key numbers are as follows:
  • Citi Field revenues are down 30% since the park opened in 2009
  • Premium ticket sales are down 50%
  • Attendance declined 26%
  • Concession revenue is down 28%
  • Parking revenue declined 37%
Basically, the Mets are broke... financially.  But I argue that, in terms of young talent, they're actually pretty rich.  With proven talent scout at the helm as GM, Sandy Alderson made a nifty move last season by trading Beltran for renowned pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.  This move speaks volumes.  The Mets are rebuilding, both literally (they moved in the outfield walls this offseason) and figuratively.

Coming up quickly in the ranks are 3 legit stud SP: Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Jeurys Familia.  Spring Training is a fun time to be a prospector.  With enlarged rosters and prospect invitees, I always find it very useful to see what teammates are saying about their prospect teammates.

One quote that stood out in my mind was reported by Kevin Kernan of the NY Post:
"After Jason Bay stood in against Harvey the other day, Bay asked Terry Collins: 'We’ve got five guys better than this?’"

Backman also weighed in on the young pitching talent:
"These guys [Harvey, Wheeler, Familia] could be a core of something at some point in time.  That’s how you try to create a dynasty.”

And after an intrasquad game in which Familia went 2 no hit IP with 2 K's, Daniel Murphy joked to his teammate, Kirk Nieuwenhuis:
“Better you than me on Day 1 to face that monster.”

It's quotes like these that generate buzz and there's a lot of buzz in the Mets camp this Spring, despite ongoing distractions (financial woes, injuries to Wright and Hairston, Ike's Valley Fever, and the sad passing of a legend, Gary "The Kid" Carter).  I'm buying into the buzz of the future rotation for my Mets.

Here are current prices of base bowman chrome autos of these stud SP prospects:
Zack Wheeler (2009 Bowman Chrome Draft): $20-25
Matt Harvey (2010 Bowman Chrome Draft): $12-20
Jeurys Familia (2010 Bowman Chrome): $20

Because of the recent spikes (Familia and Harvey rose 50-75%), I am cautiously optimistic with these guys, but I'm still buying Harvey and Familia.


Recommendations

Zack Wheeler:  HOLD (still far away from the MLB, too many other young SP getting investors' attention)
Matt Harvey:  BUY (any base auto you can find for around $15, slight premium for qty)
Jeurys Familia:  BUY (any base auto you can find for $10, slight premium for qty)




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