Saturday, March 10, 2012

Daniel Vogelbach (1B, Cubs)

One of the hottest mid-tier players from 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft is Daniel Vogelbach (aka - chubby, fatty, twinkie boy).  Youtube him and you'll see why.  The kid's a monster who hits 500 foot bombs like he's using a fungo.  I was a Vogelbach believer when I saw those videos and saw his base chrome autos selling below $10.  But, I'm happy I no longer hold any Vogelbachs.

Vogelbach is currently the third best 1B prospect for the Cubbies.  Yes, third best.  Early Spring buzz has Bryan LaHair as the frontrunner, with Anthony Rizzo, a close second.  These guys have similar power as Vogelbach with a track record to prove it.  LaHair is batting cage spectacle for players and fans alike.  Hitting in the PCL (the best hitter's league, so always be cautious when using these numbers), LaHair put up gaudy numbers, and I mean GAUDY, in 2011.

In a brief stint at the MLB level, where he held his own, and a dominating season at AAA, LaHair batted .330 with 40 HR and 115 RBI.  Sick.

Oh, and if that doesn't pan out, we have a "former" top 10 prospect, and #1 organizational prospect, named Anthony Rizzo.  All Rizzo did in the PCL last year was hit .331 with 26 HR and 101 RBI.  Oh, and he had only 356 AB.  Jeez.

OK, so for Vogelbach to be relevant, 2 things must happen.  TWO studs with triple crown-esque numbers at AAA must fail and/or both get traded.  PLUS, Vogelbach would have to perform better than both, despite having a whopping 24 professional career at bats.  Basically, the first is nearly impossible and the second is a speculative concern.  Together, it equals a SELL recommendation for Vogelbach autos while they're "hot".

RECOMMENDATION:
Vogelbach -- SELL

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